HTR2 / KM UPdate

[km]

Saturday March 13 we'll release the new HTR2 with the KM Screen and the NLog.

The NLog has a data key at the bottom so you can print and carry without the master list.

It also includes "The Buzz" column with various comments that i will explain if necessary.

Most are already self-explanatory, such as "Gelded" or "HOT Trainer" or "Double Razor"
similar to the Light Bulb but with quicker feed and all the horses together

Trnr++ means the Trainer has "A" grade in two or more key categories on the Trainer REport Card.

MoreJuice = means the horse is getting more lasix today (L2)

When you print the new KM , use the Large or Landscape print options because it prints just one page per race anyway. I'll experiment with it to see it can hold two races per page with the standard print, but it is too small of a font to fit the page and still read easily.

When you spot a race with an abundance of negative items for all horses, it becomes a real puzzler as you know they all have serious flaws. In a case liike that, look for a longshot with something positive going on. But don't bet chalk!

[SPIKE]

AWESOME !!!!! THANKS KM

[Freddy]

I just got my first look at KM- My compliments and Kudos to you Ken!

Freddy

[km]

thanks Spike and Freddy

We have many positive factors in HTR, some of them clever and unique. But over time they all seem to catch on with the public and fade the early ROI excitement.

My theory is that the public is unable to connect multiple negative items in their handicapping with perceived positive angles.

Example, we spot a $$, K=2 at 10/1. That's a gimmee for me in a tournament or p4 inclusion or exacta key. But what if there are several negatives listed with it? Do they matter enough to veto that bet? Which ones hurt it the most?

This is why the NLog is valuable. Pausing and pondering before rushing into any bet.

[Bob]

Super update Ken!

You are amazing. ;)

[Bob Stark]

Ken, many things to like on your new KM screen.
Confused on an item.
Look at Sunday's TUP8th... #5 Rasin It has a negative 04 (Bad Class), but on
the program screen it has *097+ the highest class # for the field????
My robot always checks for *XXX+ ratings in turf races.

[km]

Excellent question Bob,

they are two different formulas which makes it an interesting dichotomy

BAD CLASS - based on career attainment (or lack thereof)

CLASS rating - based on recent race competition

Class rating is someting akin to "average competition level" as it measures the horses recent company lines while the Bad Class compares accomplishment lifetime. Maybe "Class" rating needs a different label so it doesn't appear to conflict with Bad Class.

This sort of thing is rare, but can occur with very cheap horses if they have achieved nothing but a maiden claiming win (as in your example) and then been pressed into higher class races recently and now drop back into a cheap race.

You might try running this through Robot2 with CLA = 1 and Bad Class as filters. Or just run Class=1 and look at the Learn All report for the "Bad Class" results. Might be an interesting result and I'll certainly make an adjustment if the Class =1 horses are outrunning their Bad Class designation.

[Bob Stark]

Thank,,,,,, the class *+ are run by the old robot. Need to get all spot plays
changed to Robot2.

[km]

Dan (thank you!)

sent me some stats he ran on BAD CLASS + CLASS=n, and CLASS (+)(-) vs. BAD CLASS

The raw stats show that Class =1 and Class (+) perform far better than lower ranked CLASS ratings when combined with Bad CLASS.

CLASS (-). is really a disaster in the results.

So it might be tempting to exclude CLASS = 1 and CLASS (+) from the "BAD CLASS" parameter to reallly give BAD CLASS a knockout punch on most horses.

Here's the problem with that though --

CLASS = 1, CLASS (+), and especially CLASS = 1 (+) are often low odds and favorites. They have a very high I.V. to start with. So we don't want to take BAD CLASS out of the picture with low odds horses. The lower ranked CLASS ratings and the (-) runners are typically longshots anyway and they have poor results anything negative we apply.

If you read the latest newsletter an the "04" article about BAD CLASS, it is clear that it is one of the best negative items and "chalk killers". It might benefit the overall BAD CLASS statistics to remove certain high% factors such as K=1 and Class=1(+) from the formula. But this would defeat the purpose of degrading all levels of odds.

So the key is to look at odds range (or K range as i did in the newsletter) with these negative items and look for a consistent negative shift at all levels rather than the overall picture. Otherwise we'll never get any negatives attached to the favorites and low odds runners. And they are the key to elimination success.

BTW: I did not put CLASS (+)(-) into Robot2 because it is too broad. A 10 horse field might have five of each. So it ends up like Quirin's old "good race" / "bad race" notion with an abundance of horses in each group, generally separted by obvious odds parameters. As you read in the newsletter, i' grew tired of looking at the stats this way - with most of the negative factors tending to reveal the obvious about longshots and not having an effect on favorites. BAD CLASS was the replacement for Class (-) but with far greater effect on all levels of odds.

[DanG]

If you read the latest newsletter an the "04" article about BAD CLASS, it is clear that it is one of the best negative items and "chalk killers". It might benefit the overall BAD CLASS statistics to remove certain high% factors such as K=1 and Class=1(+) from the formula. But this would defeat the purpose of degrading all levels of odds.

So the key is to look at odds range (or K range as i did in the newsletter) with these negative items and look for a consistent negative shift at all levels rather than the overall picture. Otherwise we'll never get any negatives attached to the favorites and low odds runners. And they are the key to elimination success.

There is great wisdom in these sentences for players building spot plays imo. :cool:

BTW: Could the new ‘KM’ screen possibly feel any better? To an HTR player I honestly can’t see how it couldn’t move ones game up.

Of course; to the fanatics among us who if it isn’t in our own reports our brains can’t process the clues (guilty! :o ) we would love the whole kit and caboodle in an export; but what a gift this is.

[MikeDee]

I'm getting confused on the class indicatorw

In the hx4 export we have

145 "nCLASSFIT" Class symbols; 1= (+); 2= (-); 3= ('); 0= none

and then we have

201 "nBADCLASS" 1= Horse rated as Bad Class; 0= n/a

How do these relate to the discussion in the thread on the + and - symbols.

Also what does the ' symbol represent in item 145?

[Rick]

Check out the Feb 05 newsletter for discussion on class and what field 145 means.

Now I wonder why the info wasn't included in the Field Spec file. I don't know what they mean with out reading the Feb 05 newsletter. :confused:

[km]

Class (+) = class fit, has already competed well at today's EPR level
Class (-) = not a class fit, or yet to prove itselff at the EPR level of today's race
Class ( ) = unrated, like a FTS

BAD CLASS
All the horses are computed on a career basis for class and ranked. The ones at the bottom for today's field are BAD CLASS.

I admit a conflict between "Class" items here, as they have different formulas, and maybe i should re-label one of them to avoid confusion.

[MikeDee]

Thanks guys,

I agree Rick, maybe on the next upgrade perhaps we can add a description of each in the file spec.

[DanG]

maybe i should re-label one of them to avoid confusion.

Yikes!!! :D

Scary statement for us amateur programmers. I still get chills thinking about when the “k” changed its field name. :eek:

[tomcat]

"So it might be tempting to exclude CLASS = 1 and CLASS (+) from the "BAD CLASS" parameter to reallly give BAD CLASS a knockout punch on most horses."

That might be the way to go for simplicity.

Mike is right about the confusion...we end up with too much class + or -.
In a closely contested race and a C or D pr F rating, I hate to toss a winner.:)

[km]

I won't change the field names in the export, but on the screens and the PDF docs, we'll list it something like this =

Class Rating (Recent Competition)

Bad Class (Career Record)

(+) and (-) same as nCLASSFIT =1,2
We will explain these clearly in a revised PDF

thanks for the input, sorry for the confusion

[tomcat]

Ken, A suggestion for the new KM page.
We something different for first time starts other than a 0.
Since they don't have a pace line they don't qualify for a 0.
Fir those that want to play all the 0's, they need to not include the first timers.
Perhaps a FTS instead of a 0? or an x?

[BEEGEE]

I agree with your suggestion to eliminate "0" on all the first time starters. But there are instances where the "0" rating can be justified. For example; a FTS with good works and/or a great pedigree would qualify for the "0". More grist for the mill.
beeegee

[km]

It's a valid suggestion. While here are negative items for FTS such as TRN, JKY and PED items, the FTS aren't eligible for many of the negative items and tend to default to zero as you say.

However, they often make excellent longshot "Tour" and bomb plays as well. So I'm not going to immediately award every FTS a negative point and lose them in the mix.

In a new version coming soon, called HTR_TOUR, which uses the same template, the Lay and FTS is listed first so you can identify the situation quickly and quickly make a determination.

I'm open to altering it after you get a chance to work with it. I think you'll like what you see and the FTS will not be overstated.

The N# = x will be part of the export and Robot2 soon as well. You can quickly filter out the FTS in either case. And i'll test it myself for you.

[tomcat]

Would not consider a FTS a negative....if there was nothing else for consideration?