km
16th February 2010, 04:53.30 AM
I have completed my research for the upcoming tournament but confidence is low based on raw data from recent race meets. Bad weather at almost all ongoing meets has disrupted the normal flow of racing. This not only causes gaps in the schedule due to cancellation or off-tracks, but messes up the training cycle, workouts and normal layoff patterns for horses.
The upside is that this probably increases the volatiilty and field size resulting in more longshot winners. Looks like good weather this week at most venues, so we should see a lot of horses returning to training and racing that have been laid up by weather lately.
I worked on a new spreadsheet for this tournament that i hope will speed the decision process and will certainly adapt into HTR2 later if it is beneficial. Here is my thought process -->
We have great identifiers for positive longshot impact factors in HTR ($ and $$ for instance). With large, wide-open fields though, the decision process is often overwhelmed by sheer numbers of these horses. Hardly enough tournament ammo to play them all, even if the odds are generous. Not to mention we only have a matter of minutes to decide to pull the trigger.
My idea was to combine dozens of negative elements from the Robot, Trainer stats. and the Light Bulb into a screen that presents all the horses in a single glance. That could get real busy with some horses having a 10 or more comments: "chronic loser", "cold Trainer", "Weak PED", "Trainer weak with Lay 90+", etc etc etc
So, my spreadsheet numerizes the negatives and provides me with a master listing. It also allows me to improvise on some items. I'll explain both below. Sample field =
HorseA 03 07
HorseB 03 06 09 15 22 24 27 29
HorseC 01 03 99
I get to see the whole field listed together and these numbers identify certain negative or suspicious characteristics. Example, 03 = No Wins or 2nds from 4 or more tries at today's Track/Surface.
Cannot possibly use up that much space for one comment within HTR. So it was necessary to categorize all the items and refer to a master listing for what '03' refers to, but i'm getting used to it quickly and memorizing them. A great benefit here is that perhaps all the horses have the same negative (as above with 03); so in this context, it doesn't mean anything and may have more to do with the conditions of the race.
I improvised on some of the negatives as well. For example, a Turf Stakes horse with a 365-day layoff is not at all a negative. But a 3yr with 180-day layoff is definitely suspicious. So i working on variations, rather than just a generic flag for nLAY > 365, for example.
The negatives that pop up for favorites are especially critical. A strong opinion to beat the chalk is paramount to making a solid longshot play. So part of this process is to see when the low odds runners are vulnerable and have multiple challenges to overcome.
The HTR2' Light Bulb is terrric for this purpose. The problem is time lag though, same as with reading the Racing Form. After scouring through a bunch of horses and reading all the pros and cons for each runner, i have pretty much forgotten what i read earlier and have to keep going back over them again and again. This new list ends that problem and all the horses are compared together. Also, the Light Bulb doesn't list the Trainer Stats negatives and some of the Robot2 negatives due to space limitations. This new sheet overcomes that as well and gets it all combined.
Tournaments place a premium on making decisions in a hurry. I'm hopiong this will help. I'll let you know how this works out.
The upside is that this probably increases the volatiilty and field size resulting in more longshot winners. Looks like good weather this week at most venues, so we should see a lot of horses returning to training and racing that have been laid up by weather lately.
I worked on a new spreadsheet for this tournament that i hope will speed the decision process and will certainly adapt into HTR2 later if it is beneficial. Here is my thought process -->
We have great identifiers for positive longshot impact factors in HTR ($ and $$ for instance). With large, wide-open fields though, the decision process is often overwhelmed by sheer numbers of these horses. Hardly enough tournament ammo to play them all, even if the odds are generous. Not to mention we only have a matter of minutes to decide to pull the trigger.
My idea was to combine dozens of negative elements from the Robot, Trainer stats. and the Light Bulb into a screen that presents all the horses in a single glance. That could get real busy with some horses having a 10 or more comments: "chronic loser", "cold Trainer", "Weak PED", "Trainer weak with Lay 90+", etc etc etc
So, my spreadsheet numerizes the negatives and provides me with a master listing. It also allows me to improvise on some items. I'll explain both below. Sample field =
HorseA 03 07
HorseB 03 06 09 15 22 24 27 29
HorseC 01 03 99
I get to see the whole field listed together and these numbers identify certain negative or suspicious characteristics. Example, 03 = No Wins or 2nds from 4 or more tries at today's Track/Surface.
Cannot possibly use up that much space for one comment within HTR. So it was necessary to categorize all the items and refer to a master listing for what '03' refers to, but i'm getting used to it quickly and memorizing them. A great benefit here is that perhaps all the horses have the same negative (as above with 03); so in this context, it doesn't mean anything and may have more to do with the conditions of the race.
I improvised on some of the negatives as well. For example, a Turf Stakes horse with a 365-day layoff is not at all a negative. But a 3yr with 180-day layoff is definitely suspicious. So i working on variations, rather than just a generic flag for nLAY > 365, for example.
The negatives that pop up for favorites are especially critical. A strong opinion to beat the chalk is paramount to making a solid longshot play. So part of this process is to see when the low odds runners are vulnerable and have multiple challenges to overcome.
The HTR2' Light Bulb is terrric for this purpose. The problem is time lag though, same as with reading the Racing Form. After scouring through a bunch of horses and reading all the pros and cons for each runner, i have pretty much forgotten what i read earlier and have to keep going back over them again and again. This new list ends that problem and all the horses are compared together. Also, the Light Bulb doesn't list the Trainer Stats negatives and some of the Robot2 negatives due to space limitations. This new sheet overcomes that as well and gets it all combined.
Tournaments place a premium on making decisions in a hurry. I'm hopiong this will help. I'll let you know how this works out.