Things Learned at the NHC

[Donnie]

Thought I would jot down some thoughts of what I learned this last weekend while attending the NHC.

1. There are some very passionate people who handicap horseracing and many of them are very concerned about "our game". It was pretty evident if you talked to anyone. A point that was brought up at a Q&A meeting before the ice-breaker..."look around you. What would you say is the average age of everybody in this room." If you guessed anywhere under 50, you lose!

2. Women are starting to make in-roads on the handicapping circuit. This is especially good when you consider my first point. And I believe this is an untapped market. The game could be easily expanded (read that as "marketed") to females.

3. The wife and I were waiting for the elevator with Steve Crist. I had just signed in and had all my information and packet and DRF's in hand. For those of you who know me, I made a mental note to NOT say anything to him. (believe me THAT was tough, cause I LOVE talking to people in the elevators while in Vegas!!) We quietly waited for the elevator. As luck would have it, the elevator door right in front of Suze and I opened and we walked in; I held the door for Steve. I was VERY surprised that he quickly dashed into another car that opened opposite of us. Why should I care? Let's see...I think they said 151 of the contestants have never qualified before. 151!! Here is the publisher of the only major sponsor the tournament has and he not only doesn't say anything as simple as hi, but he dashes away from a HUGE opportunity to make an impression on a possible newbie by starting up a conversation. Slap my ass and call me Sally, but this game needs embassadors in the worst way. Fast forward to point 4....

4. We arrived at the banquet a few minutes late and most people had already been seated. (we were late 'cause we used the Match Play given to us from the Red Rock 2 nights before and quickly turned their $25 into $150 of our money at roulette) At the very back of the room we found a table with 6 people sitting at it so we asked if they didn't mind if we joined them. 2 people from Chicago, 2 qualifiers from Emerald Downs, and one from Keeneland, along with his wife. Clayton from Chicago actually sat next me during the tournament, and he brought along a friend. The two guys from Emerald Downs were homers (hometown winners); I told them thats why I won't fly all the way to WA to have my ass handed to me by the home team. They laughed and agreed. One intimated that he makes very good money from their live season. I don't believe either had qualified before. And the gentleman from Kentucky, he entered the local tournament, he said, because it happened to be going on one of the days he went to the track. I later learned he goes to the races nearly every weekend but has never played in the tournaments before. Said he was a longshot player and nothing else. I know he would love HTR! I asked if any were planning on playing in the Shoot Out the next day. Got a mixed response. I mentioned that the Orleans was having a qualifier for the World Series the next day as well...$100 buy-in. I think they gave away 10 seats. No one at the table had ever heard of the World Series of Handicapping, let alone HTR. There is a huge, uninformed public out there still...

5. The Red Rock did a superb job all the way around! They listened to the players; they reacted. They worked hard to make sure anyone who needed electricity got it. The entire staff was very courteous and gracious, all the way from the front desk to the servers to the ticket takers to the Spa staff. (Suze loved going to the spa every day we were there. The lady from Kentucky was not even aware that guests had full access to the Spa. And if you get qualified next year, TAKE ADVANTAGE!!) The tournament was very well run. The crowd was informed of possible post time changes; open windows were quickly pointed out if it appeared someone may get shut out from making their bets. Extra windows were set up in the back so the contestants in the rear did not have to come way forward with their betting slips. A fantastic job done by not only the NTRA/NHC staff, but the Red Rock crew as well!

6. The people who represented HTR, again, are some of the coolest people a person could meet or know. A very special congrats to Bob. I don't know how many people knew Bob going into this tournament. He is a hard working, straight shooting handicapper. He attended some of the Access sessions a few years back...how much, if any, of Access he uses, I don't know. But from my view, he has made steady gains in the tournament arena. And his second place finish was well earned. He worked hard for that finish and it is very well deserved. I chatted with him briefly after the banquet. He said he has always aspired to be as good as many of the HTR players. I told him I now aspire to be as good as him. A very well played tournament by a very deserving member of HTR. Congrats Bob! Now, how is that Malibu Moon filly of yours doing? I wanted to ask you that and completely forgot! Hope you're still part owner!

[dehere]

Another story - third hand - regarding your Comment #3, Donnie. After the contest was over and when talking to Brian he recalled that he was standing in line at some point before the contest started, near Steve Crist and Mike Watchmaker. He attempted a conversation or two about horseracing and the contest but was totally ignored by both of these gentlemen. It wasn't a situation where they didn't hear, the dismissiveness of it all was apparent to anyone who might have been watching.

Funny thing happened though, Brian won the tournament and, as part of that comes interviews with various folks, including Steve Crist and Mike Watchmaker. Brian related how amazing the transformation was after the contest was over.

On the other hand, Brian also commented about how gracious Jill Byrne was during the contest. (Of course, given the choice, I'm sure any of us would much rather talk to Jill Byrne than either of the other two blokes.) And it sure seemed like Keith Chambliss was available to talk to anyone about any facet of the contest and the NTRA, as were most of the people associated with the NTRA that I met.

Obviously we can do nothing to change someone's personality. I wonder though, do these guys even realize how poorly this reflects on them and the DRF?

[Hovard]

I'll just echo that in my experience the guys from NTRA were very cordial and open to pretty much any discussion. I think there is a real personality distinction between the NTRA and DRF folks that is MBTI based and probably related to their professions.

[Donnie]

Very possible Hovard! But if everyone trully wants to see the NHC Championship thrive, then a little extrovert personality would go a long ways! From the top down. Interesting the personality shift Trop noted.

[OPM]

Well, on one hand, you have to understand that these people are there to work their everyday job.
However, I had a similar experience when in 2007 when TVG was broadcasting the contest. One of their "big" on air personality was there and he seemed really pissed to be there. Stopped watching TVG after that.

[brianfeldman]

Steven Crist probably wasn't in the mood to be friendly to us after the reception Thursday night. Attendees kept talking over his speech; he even made a joke about telling the secret to winning so people would pay attention, then when they kept talking, he said something like "well, that didn't work." I felt bad for him and anyone else who tried to speak.

[Bob]

Brian,

I noticed that as well. I was sitting up front and could barely hear what was being said. The only time it got anywhere near quiet was when Brian Troop was being interviewed and...bless his heart...he didn't have much to say.

Bob G

[Mall]

There's a terrific Brisnet article on Bob and his strategy which is also linked at B-H: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/full_edition.cgi

I hadn't realized it was Scott Carson of PH who had already qualified and who coincidentally sat with us at the dinner. Some of you might remember the year when I wondered how they decided to list me last among the 15 or so players who pitched a Day 1 shutout. They don't do it alphabetically, since the same thing happened to Scott this year for the two day totals, which he handled with his typical humor by asking me to take a "bookend" first and last finishers photo of he and Brian together. It wasn't until I accidentally picked up Brian's beer while taking the photo and felt how warm it was that I understood just how nervous he was. If anything, Henry understated how much Brian is already concerned about appearing at the Eclipse Awards, so it might make some sense to save the date and have a tux handy Bob.

Brian Feldman's point also applies to the cocktail party, and while I don't know the solution, we've got to figure out some way to get the message across that everyone who attends these events need to exercise some common courtesy.

As km pointed out, a large number of non-htr contest players read this Board, and every year five or six introduce themselves and tell me how much they appreciate the contest information and enjoy reading most of your posts. Seeing Brian Feldman's name brought this to mind, since after the contest he introduced me to a doctor who has led many humanitarian missions to Cuba, Haiti and other islands, and who told us both that no matter where he was or what he was doing, the last thing he did every day was check the tournaments and qualifiers thread on htr.

[Donnie]

Brian Feldman's point also applies to the cocktail party, and while I don't know the solution, we've got to figure out some way to get the message across that everyone who attends these events need to exercise some common courtesy.

I got an idea, but it would spark a mutiny:

Do NOT hand any horseplayer alcohol until AFTER the speeches are over! :eek:

[Bob]

Hi Everyone,

Without boring the pants off everyone too badly, I would like to recap what was going through my mind Saturday afternoon...

As I stated in my interview with Jason of Brisnet, I went into Saturday looking a little deeper than I normally would. It just so happens that GP3 was the 1st race that I liked and the horse I had marked was - the 6. I am still amazed at the price on her but this race has to be a tournament players dream...and the fillies name is Dreamed to Dream.

Nice capper but the next race, a mandatory at GP4, really got me into the tournament. I had marked only one horse - again the 6...only $ or $$ in the race, an early horse routing the turf. She wired the field...$33.60 onto my total...$201.80 and BINGO, hellfire...I am in this thing, with 13 plays left! I got so excited after the second score I had to immediately go to the mens room, lol!

Then the cancellations were rolling in...first Oaklawn, then Laurel, THEN Aqueduct remainder of card. I made a decision to hold off on most of my optionals for two reasons...First, the players way behind had to play the longer odds horses to catch up, and second, in my study of the races remaining, I liked the lower m/l odds horses chances a lot. Chalk did come in, so my decision to wait is one that probably, more than anything else, resulted in my 2nd finish.

I had marked 6 races to view at GG and SA: The 6th and 7th at GG and the 8th thru 11th at SA. The 6th at GG and the 8th at SA were mandatory. In the 6th at GG, I had the 5 and 6 marked. I chose trnr and jock of the 5 over the velocity numbers of the 6...the 6 won and paid $39.60 and $16.00...UGH! I put bite marks in my ink pen!

Next was GG7...

I have to confess something now that I did not realize at the time...what I am about to confess did NOT cost me the tournament but it may well help me or anyone of you in the future...

I did not realize that you could put in 2 tickets on different horses in the same race!

GG7...I had only one horse marked...the 6. He finished well back of first 2 and finished 3rd.

SA 8, 9, 10 and 11...nitty gritty time!

SA 8...I had the 4, Palladio marked but what a tough race really. Russell Baze gets the money and I get 2nd, beaten by a head in an exciting race. $6.60 more and just this small amount moved me up a notch on the board...that is how close 4 of us were under Brian.

SA 9...My approach led me to mark 2 horses in this race even though the downhill 6.5T did not come up on my list as the best race to play longer odds horses. The two were the 4 and the 5. The only really strong factor on my paper for this race was FC 1,2 and so I went with the 5 and his 90+ rating. He finished last, lol. My other choice finished a well-beaten 4th as the big favorite ran away from the others.

SA 10...Only had one horse marked at good odds...the 8. BINGO! Very close race and my horse was flying on the outside to overtake the favorites. $18.60 and $10.00...new total $249.80!

I really thought that I would be on top after this race as I felt the players in front "might" play the favorite "Bullfighter" who really looked like the one to beat. We are talking about a "lot" of money difference between 2nd and 5th and the standings were so tight that I felt some, if not all, would try and move up with the 2-1 shot. My profile of this race indicated that "F" runners in 6F sprints at SA on the fake "rarely" are able to win.

Hats off to Brian as he had the 2nd place horse and added $17.20 to his total. Standings going into final race of the tournament:

Brian $266.00
Me $249.80
3 others right on my heels!

SA 11...I have no fingernails left by this time!

I had 2 horses marked from my profile notes...the 6 and the 3. Both "E" and "E" does well at 5.5 on the fake. Since the bettors were loading up on the FTS High Tide, I just knew I would probably get a price. I was down $16.20 so I needed at least 6-1. But who would Brian play? Would he play the favorite? Any win and he won because 2nd would not pay enough for me to catch him. If I were in his shoes, I think I would have played the FTS with Berjarano/O'Neill, great works, high fts and 2nd ped. Not much value in FTS at 2-1 and it would not be a play that I would make had the situation been different. So I reasoned that he "might" play the favorite. I had to beat the favorite to win. I did not like my chances at this point but I was going to play against the favorite and I chose the 6...I liked the 6 over the 3 for the following reasons:

The PED, the works, the jock and the velocity #'s. So 6 it is.

I need to confess something personal at this time...I had trouble seeing the board numbers. I am embarrassed to say this. I only have used reading glasses up until now but I noticed early in the tournament that the odds on the smaller tv's were "fuzzy". And the darn odds at SA have ALWAYS been hard for me to read, lol. I would get up every now and then and get a little closer look at the odds just before I placed my tickets. I did NOT do it before casting my final vote for the 6. I read the 6's odds from my chair as 8-1. It was actually 3-1! I am not saying this to make excuses as it did not matter in the end.

The 6 finished 6th and 3 finished 3rd and the rest...was history. The FTS won...as did Brian. What really shocked me was that no one under me played the favorite ( or maybe Tim Simmons did, not sure) to jump over me into 2nd. I guess every one wanted to take a shot at the whole enchilada.

Paul Parker, who was sitting in front of me, and who is just a super guy, asked me: Did you have the 2? (The 2 finished a strong 2nd at 27-1 and payed $23.20). He did have him...WTG Paul! I had given the 2 a cursory glance but when I saw that he had been off for 811 days with only fair works, I did not look further. I should have...because (take a look) he had some things going for him.

As it turned out, it did not matter which of my 2 horses I played. The only horse that would have done it was the 2 and I chose not to go with him.

It simply was not my year to win. Brian Troop played a magnificent tournament and I was very lucky to even come close after the lead he got on all of us Friday. I am a very lucky guy...:)

My Approach:

I create a profile for each track, surface, distance and class. I make a profile and put it into a spreadsheet, with the Robot and Access, using the following:

tote 7-1 up for each separation of the above.

I then look for the factors, ratings, that help the group to win at a price. Usually, you will find certain factors that, when they come together, will have more influence. It will be different for each separation, most of the time, reason I slice and dice the data pretty thin...more so than is recommended by Ken. In short...I believe there are reasons that mid priced horses win and I think they are right there on the screen...I just try and figure out what they are before hand with research.

I would be happy to go into a little more detail in July...just holler at me and I will show you my spreadsheet.

In summary, I would have finished 14th without the 80-1 (but she counts and NO, I am not gonna give it back, lol), which would have been much higher finish than I ever would have dreamed of just a short time ago.

I had 8 wins (5 mandatory, 3 optional) and 1 place (mandatory), average win mutuel without the $167 horse of $16.83 and place was $8.43 (again without the $63 place on the 80-1). I ended the first day with $104.20 and added $145.60 the second day...total of $249.80 for the tourney.

HTR, Ken, forum posters, the seminars and yes, a little work, have given this country boy from Kentucky something I have always dreamed of...a fighting chance in a very tough game! Thank you all very, very much.

Sincerely,

[Judicious Player]

Hi Everyone,

tote 7-1 up for each separation of the above.



Bob,

What does the above mean? I think I know, but if you (or anyone) could elaborate, thank you!

Steve

[BillBam]

Great recap Bob...Thanks!

[Bob]

Bob,

What does the above mean? I think I know, but if you (or anyone) could elaborate, thank you!

Steve

Judicious,

I separate by each of the following categories using tote odds set at 7-1 to 99-1:

Track
Distance (sometimes grouping is ok here for sprints, routes but sometimes not, like 5.5 SA fake can be very different than 6.0 fake)
Surface
Class

The data can get real thin and this is where you have to make the judgment call as to whether there is something there or is an aberration. This is the "art" of my approach, I guess you could say.

Hope this helps!

[edster42]

big congraduations. great job. thanks for the insight.

[stringmail]

I have to confess something now that I did not realize at the time...what I am about to confess did NOT cost me the tournament but it may well help me or anyone of you in the future...

I did not realize that you could put in 2 tickets on different horses in the same race!

Bob,

I wouldn't beat yourself up over this. While multiple horses is allowed at Orleans, I believe it is expressly prohibited in NHC unless I misinterpreted the rules. What led you to believe you could make multiple wagers in any one race? It might have been anecdotal and inaccurate.

It states in the rules "Multiple wagers on different horses in any one race are prohibited".

Be glad you didn't or you may not have collected your prize.:eek:

Congrats

[Bob]

Man, am I ever!

It was from a person near me...my fault for taking his word and not checking the rules closer.

I knew about the Orleans...although I have never had the inclination to do so. I will pass the race rather than not have a conviction on one horse.

Thanks!

[pmannet]

Thanks for sharing that

[Donnie]

Bob-
Great recap! Thanks!
And I'm glad you didn't listen to your neighbor...it WAS one horse per race!!:eek:

[Bob]

Ken,

I wanted you to know that I mentioned HTR as my tool of choice in my interview, but this fact was somehow left out of the final copy...imagine that!

LOL!

[tomcat]

Bob, I was just re-reading Ken's article about JKY Ratings, and then your posting on the SA8th race.
The top 3 jocks in that race were also the trifecta!......wish I had it.

Congrats and thanks for the recap.

[km]

Bob, yes that's a common editing problem with all of my competitors - they seem to delete the "HTR" part from all articles and interviews! But because of discussion board buzz, that kind of journalism backfires and increases word of mouth for HTR and negative image for them.

But thanks for trying and your synopsis here is what every horseplayer would really want to read anyway.

[Donnie]

I shoulda brought along my HTR hat! He coulda worn it for all the photo ops! And a big 'ol T-shirt that reads "HTR-ROCKS!" woulda been cool too! LOL!!!

[Bob]

Donnie...LOL!

Now that's the ticket...next time ;)

Bob G

[SPIKE]

For what it is worth. I ran into Mr. Crist. I said to him "Mr. Crist" I love your ticket maker. etc

I introduced myself and we chatted for at least 10 minutes. I dont know if it was because I

called him "Mr. Crist" or gave him his props for sharing his in depth knowledge of playing the pick six.

What struck me the most was all the players that dissed Brian Troop. Mr. Troop is a man of few

words. I cannot tell you how many people dissed him because of this interview or that interview.

LET ME JUST SAY THIS. "HIS HANDICAPPING SKILLS SAY IT ALL" Actions speak louder then words

So he might be a introvert or shy etc, but he spanked our asses big time and deserves respect.

I was pissed because somebody from Canada, had the nerve to say he made all Candians look bad

when he was interviewed. DEHERE and I were discussing the matter and I agree 10000% with his

remark "ITS NOT A SPEECH CONTEST". I am sooo happy that Brian Troop won for several reasons

One he was pulling for me during the tour. Second Brian Troop tied with me in the category for

the hardest working and most dedicated player on the tour. Anybody that would drive from ONTARIO

to Turfway Park and Beulah Park, over 900 miles is my hero. Lets take a survey. How many players

have or would drive 900 miles to a contest.

Third reason is because Brian Troop represents the grandstand and po boy players. No disrespect

to anyone, but it is what it is. Brian Troop earned

and deserves the respect of everyone. I take issue with writers etc saying this or that person

is a great ambassador for the sport. The true ambassadors are the players that drive all night long

to a contest or the player that would spend their last dime to enter a contest. Its not hard to hit a

pick six if you go all, all, all, all, all, all. I am not going to apologize for the long post, because

it is about time that the little people get their long overdue respect and recognition. I am going to

end this post with a shout out to all my friends in low places, stay strong, keep the faith because

you may just be the next Brian Troop.

[Bob]

Spike,

Agree totally...Brian Troop is a very deserving champion!

Mall mentioned that he might not be able to garner the nerves to go to the Eclipse Awards to receive his well-deserved recognition. I sure hope he can for he certainly earned his "15 minutes of fame".

You mentioned Brian traveling many miles to tournaments and the grind of it all for those that do. No doubt this has to be the tough road to travel to the NHC but, I for one have as much compassion for those that, for whatever reason, cannot afford the time, or money, to do so. If there is any one aspect of the Tour that would be close to perfect, it would be equal opportunities for the traveler and the online player. I personally feel that the Players Committee has done a very good job at addressing this with Level 1 and Level 2. Just my 2 cents.

Regards,

[Hovard]

Spike,
Well said, and all excellent points. I appreciate the inspiration and your commitment to the tour.
Hovard

[condor]

Spike I agree I competed and got killed but I was there in the number. Brian did a great job. He deserves accolades.
I heard that he mentioned to Jill Burns that he never went to a track and had to bet a race. Well said Brian maybe someone will pay attention and stop mandatories they are foolish.
Spike as a formewr member of the Players committee they have no i9ntention of listenimg to the little guy or doing anything that is not in their best interest thus this ridiculous 2 tiered entry business.
How did you all lkike that they took over 100,000 from the tourney money and subsidized the tour money? Real nice move taking money from non members and paying it to tour members wouldn't we all like that arrangement.
RR did better and the seating was better but there can be no expznsion until such time that the NTRA stops considering the Orleans competition and uses their facilities for the tournamne tthen the playing field will be equal and the event can expand.
Better than last year but still needs work. Whenever someone picks a mandatory there can be a bias. Also if a horseowner is in the room and has to bet an alternate mandatory it should be announced early so everyone can look over that race in case he hits a cap horse, players deserve a heads up in that matter.
Howard

[Donnie]

I appreciate the inspiration and your commitment to the tour.

Did I miss something? Or maybe I misheard. Spike told a group of us that he was NOT going out on the Tour this year....??? I am confused at the level of commitment......or maybe he changed his mind since last Friday/Saturday?

[JimG]

RR did better and the seating was better but there can be no expznsion until such time that the NTRA stops considering the Orleans competition and uses their facilities for the tournamne tthen the playing field will be equal and the event can expand.


Are you kidding? You cannot see the tv's from many of the tables in the huge ballroom without binoculars. Also, there is not power to most of the tables.

In fact, while I was in Vegas, I was going to play the qualifyer a week ago for the WSH but was told by the racebook manager there was no power hook ups. She was asked, how about people that use computers? She said battery power only. Don't know about you but my laptop does not have 5-6 hours of battery life. Not a level playing field there, in my opinon.

Jim