Favorable Pace Scenario

[edw]

I haven't used the Light Bulb a lot and saw something today that was confusing. In the 10th at DMR today (09/07/2009) the 1 horse, Mr Munsey, is a first time starter. The Light Bulb shows the horse as being in a "Favorable Pace Scenario". The horse was not assigned a running style as is the norm and the combined running styles of the other 11 horses (post scratches for the 9 and 10) are: 2 E, 7 P, 2 S.

I'm not clear on how one would know what pace scenario would favor a particular firster. Is this a minor bug (i.e., the comment shouldn't have been assigned to this horse) or is there something discernible/knowable about certain firsters that allows that judgment to be made?

[km]

Excellent question

Not a bug but a possible default scenario.

A "Favorable Pace Scenario" in this case is based on the lack early of early speed in the race which might favor horses that are running up close early.

In this case, there is enough information (workouts, first time PED rating) to believe this horse has sufficient early speed to take advantage of a soft pace. It's an educated guess based on a field that looks slow.

On the other hand, it is the only FTS in the race. Since all the other horses fall below par for PAC he defaulted into the comment. Will this FTS take advantage of the soft competition? I'm doubting it from the rail and the distance 7.0f is difficult for FTS to handle, so they'll probably not gun him. 8/1 seems like fair value to take a chance on him though.

That's the Light Bulb - it gets you thinking - thanks for the heads up

[edw]

Thanks for the great explanation, Ken. Very helpful.

[tomcat]

Would comments about the race in general such as above be help for us?

[edw]

FWIW, Mr Munsey led from the start to the 2nd Call and then faded to 9th losing by about 13.

[km]

TomCat, thanks for the idea, it would be a natural offshoot for the LIght Bulb to have a description for every horse based on the Light Bulb items, example like this from a made up horse -

"#5 FTS from a barn that rarely wins with debut, Sire is average with early runners and the pedigree is below average for this distance and surface. Workouts have been solid and one of the 5.0f drills was labeld "Razor Sharp" (Aug 28 at DMR)........... etc.

The problem is that it takes a long time to look up and formulate the text. Most of the information is redudant and obvious and pretty average in terms of statistics.

What we really need is a heads up to the most positive developments,

So I'm working with some of our data with HTR Mobile lists to provide you some really good heads up on horses, trainers and jockey situations with the most productive positives that will get your attention. Check the newsletter later this week in the "HTR Mobile" article for some of my ideas and some samples on-line. Very unique, and sure to get your attention.

[tomcat]

I was thinking of comments like you mentioned, no early speed....or loaded with early speed...
lone closer.....two horse race......crying for a long shot....small field and with favorites no money to be made....etc.

[km]

That would be nice to have an improvised race-shape analysis Tomcat. That's very tricky as you know - so often the pace does not materialize as expected. I have pretty much given up on trying to guess at speed duels and Lone "F" types. It never seems to go as planned.

I look at tracks like MNR and can throw any pace analysis right out the window. Sometimes a 9yr who hasn't won in years with zero early speed in the running lines goes wire to wire with ease :eek:

[tomcat]

Your race grades have been a big help along that line.