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Huguenot
15th July 2009, 06:15.41 AM
Not asking anyone to give away any secrets, but have you had success using the Robot to find spot plays for individual tracks?

I'll tell you why I'm asking I spent a few hours doing this last night for Arlington Park After I developed about half a dozen successful plays I then wrote then next to each play the strongest and weakest factors associated with that play. Of course I could have also just made those factors into other spot plays but i didn't want to have 30 spot plays for each track. Also those plays were successful in their own right and i wanted to be able to track them on their own.

I should also say to develop the spot plays I used the last four weeks. I don't know what would happen if you went back much longer or used only a short-term model but I wanted a middle ground where I could get a decent sample size while keeping the results relatively recent.

That way if I play was getting 20% winners for a 1.20 ROI, it could be turned into a 30% winner with a 1.8 ROI. For example several sprint plays improved greatly by adding in EP 1-2. And using EP 1-2 as a play (with a couple of other factors) was strengthened by adding a $$ or odds requirement.

I then used the plays, with the corollaries going forward (I switched the date on my computer clock so make the plays for May 1-27 and then ran the May 28 card.) It worked out great!! Adding some basic handicapping to eliminate obvious losers who got through the spot play filter helped even more.

I plan to pursue this pretty aggressively at several tracks and was wondering if others had tried doing this as well.

DanG
15th July 2009, 08:38.48 AM
Not asking anyone to give away any secrets, but have you had success using the Robot to find spot plays for individual tracks?

I plan to pursue this pretty aggressively at several tracks and was wondering if others had tried doing this as well.
Yes 110% imho!

Tracks with extended meets are perfect for this. The MNR / PHA’s have very different characteristics when they winterize the surface for example.

At first I believe many thought all artificial tracks could be lumped into one soup pot and as it turns out…fortunately (imo) they are unique just as most racing surfaces are. GG, Hol and Kee only share the generic label of ‘synthetic’ and the comparisons stop there.

If you lump all dirt routes run in Florida for example; you’re betting into a one turn mile at GP that has important subtle differences with Calder’s two turn version. You’re also lumping the 9f GP and Calder routes where the one post is good with Tampa’s 1m 40 dist where the one box can be a death trap.

As we saw in the All Star game last night. A cool night (for St Louis) this time of year and the ball to right field was not traveling. Play that same game in the new Yankee launching pad and triple the final score.

Each location brings there own subtle twist just as Ken will find out when he brings the HTR seminar to Tampa. :D

njcurveball
15th July 2009, 08:40.14 PM
Each location brings there own subtle twist just as Ken will find out when he brings the HTR seminar to Tampa. :D

Deal me in for this one!