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Gollygeewiz
9th July 2009, 06:48.15 PM
Getting odd Hit% results just looking field size, that apparently dont make sense:

One set - FS 8-12 clm MRte all trks about last 50 days

Fld Sz 8 03912 00489 13% 25% 38% 0.69 0.73 0.72 $11.0 $84 1.00
Fld Sz 9 03609 00401 11% 22% 33% 0.67 0.70 0.75 $12.0 $75 1.00
Fld Sz 10 03400 00340 10% 20% 30% 0.72 0.74 0.74 $14.5 $162 1.00
Fld Sz 11 01210 00110 09% 18% 27% 0.78 0.76 0.72 $17.1 $101 1.00
Fld Sz 12 00708 00059 08% 17% 25% 0.61 0.63 0.75 $14.6 $81 1.00

But FS 10 should be: 10%-21%-34% (show: 1/10+1/9+1/8) if there were no dead heats and no coupled H... and in that many races, there should be dead heats... same for the other FS.

This is another search which must be showing various FS all of which apparently have something interesting going on that I cant divine:

Fld Sz 5 01735 00388 22% 45% 65% 0.81 0.82 0.87 $7.2 $88 1.12
Fld Sz 6 05536 01078 19% 38% 56% 0.78 0.79 0.83 $8.0 $70 1.17
Fld Sz 7 08304 01482 18% 35% 51% 0.78 0.79 0.83 $8.8 $76 1.25
Fld Sz 8 07454 01211 16% 32% 46% 0.79 0.81 0.83 $9.7 $80 1.30
Fld Sz 9 05890 00923 16% 31% 44% 0.80 0.81 0.84 $10.2 $83 1.41
Fld Sz 10 05042 00757 15% 29% 41% 0.80 0.82 0.84 $10.7 $95 1.50
Fld Sz 11 01910 00275 14% 28% 40% 0.81 0.83 0.86 $11.3 $63 1.58
Fld Sz 12 01280 00193 15% 28% 40% 0.88 0.83 0.89 $11.7 $68 1.81

Without any DH, and no couple H, this should be the gen result, it seems to me:

Expected Hit % - by Field Size

Fd Size W P S
5 20% 45% 78%
6 17% 37% 62%
7 14% 31% 51%
8 13% 27% 43%
9 11% 24% 38%
10 10% 21% 34%
11 9% 19% 30%
12 8% 17% 27%

Whats up anyone??

km
9th July 2009, 08:53.12 PM
gollygee' - those WP and ITM are not separated for Place and Show

WP% = 1st and 2nd place finishers combined

ITM% = 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishers combined

That first of data is correct for a general sample.

Looks like you had a factor involved in that second set of data. For example, if you test FTS with Field Size, there won't be an even distribution because there may be multiples in some races, and none in others. I can tell that is the case because the I.V > 1.05 for the winners and the ROI is much higher than a generic test on Field Size.