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13th February 2009, 11:03.50 PM
I'm going to hold off until the March newsletter to release the latest update to Robot2. There are several new items that need some explaining, the newsletter is the best forum for that and i can print some interesting stats and comments for the new stuff as well.
There are also several bugs and quirks reported by users that have confounded me and i'm working on those and want to fix them before putting up a new version.
Some of the new things added =
All the "NO" negative elimination items have been placed in a separate module and several more added. One of the best ideas came from webmaster Rick who suggested the Robot needed checkboxes to eliminate each distance/surface category. I got them all in there.
The dist/surf area of the Race Filters now, is such that you cannot currently eliminate an entire block category, such as Turf Sprints. With the update, you'll be able to easily remove any category of dist/surf. There is an added bonus to using these as it helps the Robot speed up processing time considerably. Thanks Rick for an excellent idea.
other ideas submitted by users recently --
= NO Apprentice Jockeys has been added to the negative screen.
(later i may add Apprentice as filter to the Connections screen so you can make a spot play with those jockeys only)s
= Race with Super Trainers, or Race with NO Super trainers has been added to the Race Filters section which will enable you to eliminate a race (the whole race, not just a horse) in which any entrant is trained by a 'super'. Early tests of this have shown me that these race can be very productive by filtering to races with a more competitive balance.
I used TRN >= 380 for this item. We normally think of a super trainer at TRN =400 up, but this is a race item and the goal it to narrow the search to more competitive races. You can always test any range of TRN you want from the Range Filters TRN section, and that could include elimnating horses from your test or spot play with TRN >=380 or whatever. But this new item, eliminates the RACE from the test by skipping over races in which one or more super trainers have entered. Very interesting possibilities here.
Finally, i have a complicated filter that will take some explaining in the newsletter: "(chart) Leader at First Call - Test Only, not for Spot Plays". This one is for testing only and will help with bias detection and understanding the predictive capability of early speed factors in HTR. In fact, this will change the way you view track bias completely. Instead of looking at worthless stats like "17% won wire to wire in Dirt Sprints at GP" you'll gain a completely different perspective by knowing the % of time that the leader actually goes on to win at every distance; and with every possible HTR factor. How often for instance, how often do Fr1=1 horses actually reach the front at the 1st call, and then how often do they hold on and win the race? This is a critical piece of infromation for velocity players.
This item is similar to Tote Odds in that it cannot be used for spot plays because it is only computed after-the-fact (when the result chart is downloaded after the races are over). In other words, you cannot know ahead of time which horses will actually be in front at the 1st call. However, by running the numbers in hindsight, you'll valuable insights into the realm of early speed and our ability to predict who the leader will be.
I expect to have the Robot2 and newsletter available by March10, a slight delay because of the Vegas trip next week.
There are also several bugs and quirks reported by users that have confounded me and i'm working on those and want to fix them before putting up a new version.
Some of the new things added =
All the "NO" negative elimination items have been placed in a separate module and several more added. One of the best ideas came from webmaster Rick who suggested the Robot needed checkboxes to eliminate each distance/surface category. I got them all in there.
The dist/surf area of the Race Filters now, is such that you cannot currently eliminate an entire block category, such as Turf Sprints. With the update, you'll be able to easily remove any category of dist/surf. There is an added bonus to using these as it helps the Robot speed up processing time considerably. Thanks Rick for an excellent idea.
other ideas submitted by users recently --
= NO Apprentice Jockeys has been added to the negative screen.
(later i may add Apprentice as filter to the Connections screen so you can make a spot play with those jockeys only)s
= Race with Super Trainers, or Race with NO Super trainers has been added to the Race Filters section which will enable you to eliminate a race (the whole race, not just a horse) in which any entrant is trained by a 'super'. Early tests of this have shown me that these race can be very productive by filtering to races with a more competitive balance.
I used TRN >= 380 for this item. We normally think of a super trainer at TRN =400 up, but this is a race item and the goal it to narrow the search to more competitive races. You can always test any range of TRN you want from the Range Filters TRN section, and that could include elimnating horses from your test or spot play with TRN >=380 or whatever. But this new item, eliminates the RACE from the test by skipping over races in which one or more super trainers have entered. Very interesting possibilities here.
Finally, i have a complicated filter that will take some explaining in the newsletter: "(chart) Leader at First Call - Test Only, not for Spot Plays". This one is for testing only and will help with bias detection and understanding the predictive capability of early speed factors in HTR. In fact, this will change the way you view track bias completely. Instead of looking at worthless stats like "17% won wire to wire in Dirt Sprints at GP" you'll gain a completely different perspective by knowing the % of time that the leader actually goes on to win at every distance; and with every possible HTR factor. How often for instance, how often do Fr1=1 horses actually reach the front at the 1st call, and then how often do they hold on and win the race? This is a critical piece of infromation for velocity players.
This item is similar to Tote Odds in that it cannot be used for spot plays because it is only computed after-the-fact (when the result chart is downloaded after the races are over). In other words, you cannot know ahead of time which horses will actually be in front at the 1st call. However, by running the numbers in hindsight, you'll valuable insights into the realm of early speed and our ability to predict who the leader will be.
I expect to have the Robot2 and newsletter available by March10, a slight delay because of the Vegas trip next week.