kline vs ml

[waldo pepper]

Does anyone think that being able to compare kline to ml as a spot play indicator would be helpful in finding overlays as kline is only availible to htr members

[km]

In the original Robot we once had such an option filter: "KLine lower than ML" to help find overlays. You can still see the indicator on the KM and Program screens; the ">" symbol to the right of the KLine which indicates it is lower than the ML, thus possibly an overlay.

The problem with this is scratches ruin it most of the time and the item was useless.

With one key scratch , or multiple scratches, the KLine self-adjusts downward for all the horses, while the ML is static. So this can result in every horse in the race becoming an overlay because the ML does not change.

Also, with coupled entries, if one half scratched, it distorts the situation badly because the KLine immediately re-adjusts to the reality of the remaining entrant, while the ML stays the same and is way off.

Just not workable for a Robot spot play with the ML stuck as it is after scratches.

To find ML 'sweet spot" for the K ranks, or HTR rankings and make spot plays - run a test with HTR=1 for example through the LEARN MORE. You'll find a ML spread on the report that will show you where the profitable ROI is and then you can work from there to determine the best range. These two factors (HTR=1, K=1) are extremely consistent, so you can depend on the results with the ML to hold up going forward when you play them daily.

[DanG]

On that line of thought…

One (potential) future addition to the PPX screen that I use in reports is the Kline vs. Tote. It is very revealing to point out steam and / or dead pieces especially in young horses / equipment / trainer changes etc. It can be a 'tell when the Kline was 25/1 going in and they went off 7/2 and of course visa / versa.

BTW-I: As long term studies show; the Kline is a remarkable predictor of the tote which only makes the comparison more powerful imo. Also: the PPX screen does have the whole K # and that will give the same information; just not as quick to read.

BTW-II: If it's a bet-down and the owner is West Point TB; forgetaboutit...they bet almost ALL their runners until the tote goes tilt! :eek:

[waldo pepper]

thanks guys I should have been able to recognize the problem of scratches and kline adjustments myself