Robot II - Apprentice jockeys

[stu]

Ken,

In the Range Filters/PL-mode screen, would there be any way to (de-)select apprentice jockeys or at least the ones that claimed the weight?

I have a theory that 10- and 7-pound bugs are bet againsts on turf and in route races.

If it is problematic, I will wait until RobotIII in a couple of years

[km]

thanks for posting stu

I could test that for you, apprentice jock on turf or route, but my gut feeling with jockey is that you will do much better by using the "Bad Jockey" filter already in the RobotII (see latest newsletter for test results) for those situations. You can also set the Jockey Rating Range filter to anything you want for jockey eliminations such as < 225. When i get some time, i'll test your apprentice theory and paste the results here.

[DanG]

I have a theory that 10- and 7-pound bugs are bet againsts on turf and in route races.

I have a hunch Ken is juggling 19 things at the moment, so let’s try and save him one query.

Interesting theory Stu and it looks like your spot on! Turf routes are just a different animal among horsemen and riders. Each circuit has their specialists as we see every year at Gulfstream.

C-DS Key:

1. Fast Dirt Sprints
2. Fast Dirt Routes
3. Turf Sprints
4. Turf Routes
5. Artf Sprints
6. Artf Routes
7. Wet Sprints
8. Wet Routes

Apprentice weight: 0 = journeymen and 5+ accordingly. Last two years and with all the Dup’s the IV is the obvious key.
C_DS ApprWt Plays Wins Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AVGM $16.25+ High I.V.
1 0 383457 47628 12% 25% 37% $0.73 $0.74 $0.75 $11.71 8335 $367 1.02
1 5 20955 2386 11% 23% 34% $0.74 $0.75 $0.73 $12.95 517 $215 0.93
1 7 9770 971 10% 21% 33% $0.81 $0.81 $0.76 $16.33 280 $167 0.81
1 10 2306 169 7% 15% 24% $0.77 $0.69 $0.62 $20.89 69 $180 0.60
2 0 140429 18312 13% 26% 39% $0.76 $0.76 $0.76 $11.70 3140 $247 1.07
2 5 8210 943 11% 23% 36% $0.80 $0.77 $0.77 $13.98 217 $311 0.94
2 7 3939 361 9% 21% 34% $0.67 $0.75 $0.75 $14.70 93 $92 0.75
2 10 905 60 7% 16% 26% $0.66 $0.66 $0.62 $19.93 23 $155 0.54
3 0 33211 3777 11% 23% 34% $0.78 $0.76 $0.76 $13.66 844 $210 0.93
3 5 1971 181 9% 19% 29% $0.81 $0.73 $0.73 $17.56 69 $130 0.75
3 7 802 52 6% 15% 23% $0.67 $0.76 $0.65 $20.61 19 $123 0.53
3 10 205 8 4% 11% 17% $0.95 $0.66 $0.49 $48.48 5 $208 0.32
4 0 66362 7507 11% 23% 34% $0.78 $0.76 $0.76 $13.82 1744 $203 0.93
4 5 2809 233 8% 18% 28% $0.70 $0.71 $0.73 $16.98 72 $163 0.68
4 7 1281 61 5% 11% 20% $0.52 $0.66 $0.65 $21.80 33 $95 0.39
4 10 355 11 3% 9% 15% $0.42 $0.63 $0.57 $27.22 5 $131 0.25
5 0 61639 7138 12% 23% 35% $0.79 $0.76 $0.76 $13.56 1614 $280 0.95
5 5 4328 464 11% 22% 34% $0.85 $0.83 $0.80 $15.86 130 $124 0.88
5 7 808 80 10% 19% 28% $0.75 $0.80 $0.75 $15.09 26 $58 0.81
5 10 489 26 5% 11% 18% $0.72 $0.71 $0.58 $27.17 9 $136 0.44
6 0 30245 3787 13% 25% 37% $0.82 $0.80 $0.78 $13.11 865 $165 1.02
6 5 1972 220 11% 23% 35% $0.71 $0.72 $0.75 $12.67 45 $83 0.91
6 7 524 45 9% 19% 30% $0.75 $0.75 $0.74 $17.56 16 $63 0.70
6 10 251 12 5% 11% 20% $0.57 $0.54 $0.63 $23.71 6 $74 0.39
7 0 77220 9754 13% 25% 38% $0.73 $0.75 $0.75 $11.58 1666 $289 1.03
7 5 4226 518 12% 24% 37% $0.74 $0.78 $0.79 $12.09 101 $142 1.00
7 7 2088 189 9% 20% 33% $0.68 $0.70 $0.73 $15.09 44 $123 0.74
7 10 519 30 6% 15% 25% $0.64 $0.67 $0.69 $22.00 12 $143 0.47
8 0 34647 4631 13% 27% 40% $0.76 $0.76 $0.76 $11.37 759 $199 1.09
8 5 1909 229 12% 24% 37% $0.84 $0.76 $0.73 $14.00 49 $150 0.98
8 7 963 82 9% 21% 32% $0.78 $0.85 $0.75 $18.29 25 $109 0.70
8 10 184 8 4% 15% 27% $0.45 $0.92 $0.77 $20.90 3 $61 0.36

Just for kicks sorted by the rank of tote odds to see if the public under / over values the inexperienced bugs. The K is just too smart and already factors in connections etc, so tote may be more enlightening. (BTW: Tote odds ranked >9 are grouped with 9 and all surfaces are lumped.)
rAODD ApprWt Plays Wins Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AVGM $16.25+ High I.V.
1 0 109010 37883 35% 56% 70% $0.82 $0.87 $0.88 $4.72 0 $13 2.84
1 5 4773 1647 35% 55% 70% $0.84 $0.88 $0.90 $4.86 0 $10 2.82
1 7 1363 472 35% 53% 69% $0.82 $0.84 $0.86 $4.73 0 $9 2.83
1 10 165 67 41% 58% 73% $1.04 $0.98 $0.96 $5.10 0 $9 3.32
2 0 101918 21336 21% 41% 58% $0.81 $0.83 $0.86 $7.74 35 $26 1.71
2 5 4940 1053 21% 41% 58% $0.83 $0.84 $0.87 $7.79 1 $18 1.74
2 7 1660 327 20% 42% 59% $0.77 $0.83 $0.88 $7.85 1 $19 1.61
2 10 235 45 19% 38% 51% $0.76 $0.80 $0.80 $7.91 0 $12 1.57
3 0 101333 14875 15% 32% 49% $0.78 $0.79 $0.83 $10.69 568 $31 1.20
3 5 5161 768 15% 32% 48% $0.80 $0.80 $0.82 $10.74 28 $26 1.22
3 7 1981 282 14% 32% 50% $0.78 $0.81 $0.85 $10.91 15 $21 1.16
3 10 333 50 15% 31% 48% $0.82 $0.78 $0.80 $10.93 2 $20 1.23
4 0 100673 10567 10% 24% 40% $0.77 $0.77 $0.80 $14.68 2914 $64 0.86
4 5 5370 535 10% 24% 40% $0.73 $0.75 $0.81 $14.58 141 $33 0.82
4 7 2308 262 11% 26% 43% $0.85 $0.82 $0.84 $14.92 77 $32 0.93
4 10 477 40 8% 23% 41% $0.64 $0.73 $0.80 $15.33 15 $27 0.69
5 0 99174 7397 7% 18% 31% $0.76 $0.75 $0.76 $20.38 5255 $79 0.61
5 5 5628 492 9% 19% 33% $0.89 $0.79 $0.82 $20.32 365 $58 0.72
5 7 2620 216 8% 20% 33% $0.96 $0.88 $0.78 $23.17 167 $84 0.67
5 10 587 37 6% 17% 28% $0.78 $0.72 $0.66 $24.66 30 $50 0.52
6 0 93202 4759 5% 13% 24% $0.72 $0.71 $0.71 $28.37 4504 $130 0.42
6 5 5619 308 5% 14% 25% $0.76 $0.77 $0.75 $27.91 295 $83 0.45
6 7 2756 111 4% 12% 23% $0.63 $0.73 $0.70 $31.47 105 $81 0.33
6 10 739 36 5% 12% 22% $0.73 $0.70 $0.66 $29.96 36 $61 0.40
7 0 78525 2815 4% 9% 18% $0.70 $0.70 $0.67 $38.84 2795 $163 0.29
7 5 5089 177 3% 9% 17% $0.69 $0.69 $0.64 $39.55 176 $135 0.28
7 7 2582 96 4% 10% 18% $0.83 $0.80 $0.71 $44.77 96 $95 0.30
7 10 749 22 3% 8% 14% $0.67 $0.70 $0.58 $45.95 22 $143 0.24
8 0 59489 1634 3% 7% 13% $0.72 $0.70 $0.63 $52.47 1631 $182 0.22
8 5 3824 96 3% 7% 13% $0.64 $0.68 $0.64 $50.65 96 $122 0.21
8 7 1960 44 2% 6% 13% $0.68 $0.69 $0.63 $60.37 44 $124 0.18
8 10 641 9 1% 5% 12% $0.44 $0.48 $0.55 $62.87 9 $106 0.11
9 0 83886 1268 2% 4% 8% $0.60 $0.59 $0.53 $79.28 1265 $367 0.12
9 5 5976 98 2% 4% 8% $0.68 $0.63 $0.53 $82.66 98 $311 0.13
9 7 2945 31 1% 4% 8% $0.46 $0.64 $0.55 $86.56 31 $167 0.09
9 10 1288 18 1% 4% 7% $0.70 $0.64 $0.44 $100.36 18 $208 0.11


:eek: Quite the % as favorites for the 10lbs newbies.

[stu]

Thanks Ken and Dan.

I got to see what I wanted to see and I am printing out the charts so that I don't have to try and find this thread in a few months -- good stuff.

I think that the 5 pound category probably gets skewed by the states that don't have 7 and 10 pound allowances.

I am also surprised by the win percentage and flat bet profit of 10-pounders on favorites.

[km]

thanks for running those stats Dan! nice report

[Huguenot]

nice chart Dan

Another interesting stat would be the CHANGE from a journeyman to bug (and vice versa) -- kind of a barometer of trainer intent.

[tbrown]

Dan da Man! :cool: