Track Variant Question

[Cliff]

All,

Can someone tell me what the track variant is in comparing Sam Houston's recently ended meet with the current meet at Lone Star Park? What I'm trying to do is determine if a horse that ran a dirt route at Sam in February, 2001 (1 mi. 70 yards to be exact) in a $7500 claiming race can be competitive at Lone Star in May, 2001. My gut feeling is that Lone Star is running a little faster and/or there is a little bit higher class of horse running in the $7500 claimers.

I think these figures are inherently built into HTR's data, but, don't know how to extract them or analyze them accordingly. Any thoughts, ideas, suggestions?

Thanks,
Cliff

[Ken Massa]

Cliff, HTR automatically computes the track to track variant for all velocity-pace-speed factors, along with a distance and daily surface variant. Knowing the general adjustment for HOU vs. LS has little value unless you are making independent speed figures like Beyer. Trust the program to make the numbers comparable for you - the velocity numbers in HTR are computed with a far more sophisticated algorithm than merely comparing average times at each track for each class level. It is my understanding that Jim Cramer has abandon pars as well and uses 'projected' numbers for his final time figures see the: (PRAT - (2)) or TLC program to view those.

We have come a long way in the science of accurate track variants, but it has only destroyed the ROI on final time speed figs.

I believe you can still purchase general track-to-track pars from Gordon Pine or Cynthia Publishing. I don't have the websites at the moment, but they should be easy to find.

[Cliff]

Thanks for your input Ken.

Unfortunately, my dilema is more of a personal one and less of a handicapping one. Was trying to determine whether to drop a horse in class to make it competitive since the move to LS from SH. I know there is a way to do it the "old-fashioned" way, but am not schooled enough on it to even begin the calculations. If anyone wants to take a stab at it, I'll e-mail the fractions I am looking at.

Thanks,
Cliff

[George]

Cliff......a couple suggestions. Most of us on HTR trust that variant is adjusted and don't bother keeping our own. Many of the players on www.paceadvantage.com keep their own and would probably give a specific one like SH to LS if you ask on their board.

Also, Gordon Pine left cynthia publishing and his pars are now being maintained and sold at
www.horsestreet.com. Go there and click on PRODUCTS. The pars are listed at the bottom.