WO R2

[JBmadera]

I was wondering if anyone has looked at WO -02 for today. After looking at the #5 horse I was suprised to see he was mlo 8-1 and k=4. Maybe someone could help me see why he isn't ranked higher (the only thing I can see is a not so super w=76).

thanks!

JB

[DanG]

I was wondering if anyone has looked at WO -02 for today. After looking at the #5 horse I was suprised to see he was mlo 8-1 and k=4. Maybe someone could help me see why he isn't ranked higher (the only thing I can see is a not so super w=76).

thanks!

JB
I’ll take a shot JB:

I think this race is a great example of page page-8 in the new HTR e-book from the ‘08 seminar. Using pattern recognition within the K-ranks can really give clues on how deep to reach.

The lone 2TS (#6, K-1 = 107) in a fld of all FTS’s gets a huge edge in experience; not to mention he was the fav in his 1st start and ran OK with a semi- reasonable pace figure.

The next 4 runners are in a virtual tie ranging from 102 – 100 in K, while (as you pointed out) the MLO on the horse you mentioned is 8-1.

Your #5; Great example of the Pedigree = 617, 1st time index = 94, TJ = 40%, TPG = A+, and Long = “$” etc…all giving clues that are under the radar to the starting price.

When I’m filling out serial bets I attempt to do just what the K is doing for us. Group contenders within probability ranges and I try not to take 1 point differences too literal / especially with FTS as the VI = 25 “CHAOS” correctly points out.

Win / lose or draw; This #5 you point out is an automatic include if I was playing a pick whatever and is the HTR equivalent of speed reading the PP’s. All the relevant clues are on one screen for all subscribers to see.

Nice spotting; One thing btw; His strong Ped rating is not graded in the trainer report card screen; so you may want wager accordingly??? Although; being ahead of the curve with small crops in HTR Ped ratings is something I’ve learned the hard way! :o

Best of luck!!!

[JBmadera]

Thanks Dan.

btw - love the E book and the newsletters in a nutshell.

JB

[njcurveball]

The morning line is under a microscope everyday, but I have to give props to the Woodbine line maker on this one.

He correctly made the 7-5 favorite (and winner) 5-2 ML favorite. "Smart" guys like me see stats like 1 for 24 with first time starters and we run in the other direction as fast as possible.

If you look at the HTR screen, #8 has rankings of 7/4/2/7 in the key FTS areas. That sounds more like a fourth choice, than a first choice, so although nothing is perfect, he looks to have done a pretty good job capping this race 2 or 3 days before it was run.

One good example for HTR users here. As #6 gets $$ status by default due to the none of the other horses being ranked. One of the key export fields is NRUNKS which gives the number of unknowns in a field.

#1 rankings are great, but when 6 out of 7 horses are unknowns, there is no reason to get excited about them.

#6 was one horse I would say the ML maker did not estimate correctly. Not because of the $$ in HTR, but the fact the horse took a ton of money in her debut. When making the ML, you need to "find the money". This horse probably should have 2nd choice in the ML as the crowd seems to love to bet the trainer.

Note: The winner is a full sister to Shakespeare. Kudos to the poster over at PA for pointing that out.

Jim

[km]

# 5 reportedly bled, was not on Lasix; improvement definite next time with L1

All the other horses were using the "juice"

[DanG]

Good points by Jim and Ken with the “no-lasix” on the #5 being a key factor with a FTS.

Also to be fair here; there was a two horse flip out behind the gate with the #6 being one of them.