Legit longshots vs mirage...

[sq764]

Ive been in a funk with some longshot plays (20/1+) that I have thought were contenders and ended up pretenders.. Typically if I see a horse come up 1st or 2nd ranked in 2 of the 3 categories of EP/SP/AP and see them at 15/1 or better, I get ready to bet..

My question is can anyone suggest a method that might work as a secondary 'check' to confirm that the longshot is indeed a live play or whether it's a pass?

I know poor trainer and/or jock stats are something to consider, but I was moreso looking for any handicapping factors/elements might be worthwhile to check over in this scenario.

ANy assistance would be appreciated..

Thanks
Scott

[Rayman]

Two things that might help when you have those top ranked standouts are

1. Checking the run style versus the other contenders. If the horse is top ranked EP but has to put that number up today under pressure from "F" or "E" horses with high QP then that number 1 rank in SP and AP won't matter much because he'll fold.

2. A quick check on the TLC screen for class changes. If the horse is moving up against other horses moving down or moving up more classes than the others it can give you an idea whether or not it's heavily over matched.

These are just generalizations, but I hope it helps.

[km]

The single most potent tandem factor in HTR for confirming a longshot is the Wk rating.

80 is good, 85+ is great, and if the drills occured since the last start, even better

Many of these horses will already get $$ on the screen

[Huguenot]

I find if an older horse runs a single good figure and there's no good reason for it and the odds are pretty high because overall his record is pretty poor -- that's a longshot with a good fig you can toss. Often the figure is a fluke.

An S or R horse in a race with not much pace and the horse has never shown any inclination to race close to the lead.

A longshot who's got a good fig but running against the grain of the track.

A horse who SHOULD be getting bet based on his apparent good form and Beyer figure but isn't. We're not talking a hidden figure here that only HTR users will suss out, but one that open for all to see.

Horse claimed by vastly inferior trainer. No way will be recreate the past figure.

[njcurveball]

The single most potent tandem factor in HTR for confirming a longshot is the Wk rating.



Great advice Ken! Also a good eliminator when the score is less than 70!