Trainer Report Card: Overbet

[km]

re: new Trainer Report Card in latest HTR2

One of the six key trainer categories we'll be discussing in depth at the seminar is

The Overbet Trainer

The Trainer Report Card makes it easy to identify them. There are three key categories listed at the left of the report. 365-BET-FAV. You can learn a great deal about the trainer from this alone. The BET column grades the trainer's value to bettors.

Look at this sample from the report
365-BET-Fav
B.....F.....A

This is an above average ("B") winning trainer. But his/her horses are badly overbet ("F") and most of the winners are chalk ("A"). Why would that happen?

= The barn bets heavily on its live horses
= High profile trainer and/or owner with media reputation
= The public is overbetting most of the trainer's horses because he has been hot at the meet

Bottom Line: this trainer is a big money burner and poor value, most of his horses are bet down below the ML, his typical profile is to win only when betting action is strong.

[DanG]

What a great tool and way to look at a barn from a value perspective!

This is such a neat snapshot of a trainer’s strengths and weaknesses. I love the # in barn which also exposes the “one-horse wonder” stables.

Thanks again Ken for great work as always.

[tbrown]

# in barn is a stat I never even considered, but thinking about it, at small tracks, it could be a nice thing to to know. Small barns might start claiming to fill up as the meet progresses. It might pay to keep tabs on some of your usual suspects.

[Donnie]

strange thing....
a couple weeks ago I read in the local paper of a trainer at PRM who had only 2 horses in his barn.....I went into HTR and turns out he was an A+ trainer....I thought to myself, "that would be good info to have"....lo and behold, here it is! Great addition Ken!

[km]

exactly Donnie, small barn = more attention to the individual horse

With some of these 'factories' barns with 100 or more horses, some runners might never even see the named trainer in its entire racing career.