Bet Sizing

[Roghaltz]

Hello All,
Have been kicking around the notion of bet sizing lately and was wondering how others viewed it. There are obviously many variations such as:

1. Flat betting two units on WPS - horses that run 2nd or 3rd can lead to breakeven or losses

2. One unit on Win, Two Units on Place, Three Units on Show - same number of units as above but gives more insurance for horses that don't win

3. Some form of Kelly betting - I have been thinking about this the most, but you often wind up making huge bets if your horse is a big fav, particularly if you bet place and show (e.g. if a horse is even money (+100) to win, it might be -200 to place and -400 to show. Of course, you can scale your bets back. Also, if your horse is a 15-1 shot, then Kelly is going to have you only make a small bet so you miss the "big score" (which may not be rational...)

I know many people only bet to win, but I think my gambling style is more conservative so I like to have some coverage with place (and sometimes show).

Ezra (aka Roghaltz)

[OPM]

What you need to do is decide on your start and stop points.
How many units or % down for the day and you will stop. How many units or % up for the day and you will stop( or at least protect 1/2 of your winnings).
Then you have to decide on the betting style that bes fits your personality. It sounds like place and show betting are more to your liking.
I would also have a cutoff on what's the lowest odds you will bet. I try not to bet any horse in wps that is less than 7/2.
Hope this helps.

[DanG]

Roghaltz ~ Have been kicking around the notion of bet sizing lately and was wondering how others viewed it.

This is such an individual matter as Gupta [OPM] touched upon.

You sound like you understand yourself well enough to have guidelines which are very important. I’m probably not a good person to respond to your thread as it was posed, because I’m not very conservative as a rule. In a ‘general sense; I’m a big fan of the following;

• % of bankroll.
• Session playing with / profit and loss taking on a sliding scale.
• Separating wager types by individual banks.
• Grading wagers by whatever preference you feel comfortable with.
• Perhaps most importantly; top shelf record keeping.

% of bankroll & grading of wagers:

Simply put; with a starting bank of $1,000 you set up your “A grade wagers” to a level you’re comfortable with. Never more then 5% will greatly reduce potential run outs and obviously the lower this % is the less risk of tapping out.

A theoretical table with the bankroll at various levels with your % of bets adjusted by your grading system and bank size. This table is a real rush job and quite generic; so please forgive me. :o
*Bet Sizing* % of Bank > 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%
Profit / Loss Bank / Grade > A B C D F
$0 $1,000 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10
($100) $900 $45 $36 $27 $18 $9
($200) $800 $40 $32 $24 $16 $8
($300) $700 $35 $28 $21 $14 $7
($400) $600 $30 $24 $18 $12 $6
($500) $500 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5
($400) $600 $30 $24 $18 $12 $6
($300) $700 $35 $28 $21 $14 $7
($200) $800 $40 $32 $24 $16 $8
($100) $900 $45 $36 $27 $18 $9
$0 $1,000 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10
$100 $1,100 $55 $44 $33 $22 $11
$200 $1,200 $60 $48 $36 $24 $12
$300 $1,300 $65 $52 $39 $26 $13
$400 $1,400 $70 $56 $42 $28 $14
$500 $1,500 $75 $60 $45 $30 $15

The grading system can be whatever makes you comfortable. Some feel the lower your perceived hit rate the lower the bet, while others feel your bet size should only reflect your disagreement with the market price. IMO: A wagers should reflect your best opinions and greatest edge, while the “F” wagers might represent that dreaded 6 letter word “action” :rolleyes: bets. :eek:

Session limits are set up in advance and profit taking can be done at any point. A standard method is the goal of doubling your bank. At this point you take your $1,000 and take the good women out to dinner (it should just almost cover the gas! :D) / Or / reinvest it increasing your bet size / or bolster another wager type fund that is under-performing.

I can’t honestly speak intelligently about place and show betting. I know for a fact some people have made it work for them, but the modern pools are just to efficient / to exposed to late fluctuations and murdered by the breakage for my tastes. As with ANY bet; if it works for you…use it and you can’t put a price on piece of mind if three straight photo losses would have profited with place backups.

This is such an important subject and my post is so rushed it should really go in the bin…but what the heck. A quick search through some HTR newsletters will have some very good write ups on all types of sequential betting etc…

Great subject! And hopefully someone will chime (like OPM did) who really can articulate an approach better then I.

BTW; Did I mention Record Keeping?...It’s still in 2008 the #1 flaw in a horseplayer’s arsenal. :)

[njcurveball]

1. Flat betting two units on WPS - horses that run 2nd or 3rd can lead to breakeven or losses

2. One unit on Win, Two Units on Place, Three Units on Show - same number of units as above but gives more insurance for horses that don't win



Show betting has it's place in this game, usually when there is a minus pool. I have yet to find a spot play that will make a decent profit to show. If you have some spot plays that show a lot of 2nds and 3rds you are wasting your money with place and show. I would guess that putting them behind logical contenders to win in exotics will show a whole lot more profits.

I have hit some horses that pay prices like $80 to win, $20 to place and $10 to show. I know that these horses finish 3rd about 3 times more than they win for me. I am happy leaving those 3 show tickets on the table and getting much more than 3 times more when they win.

Jim

[Roghaltz]

Show betting has it's place in this game, usually when there is a minus pool. I have yet to find a spot play that will make a decent profit to show. If you have some spot plays that show a lot of 2nds and 3rds you are wasting your money with place and show. I would guess that putting them behind logical contenders to win in exotics will show a whole lot more profits.

I have hit some horses that pay prices like $80 to win, $20 to place and $10 to show. I know that these horses finish 3rd about 3 times more than they win for me. I am happy leaving those 3 show tickets on the table and getting much more than 3 times more when they win.

Jim

Jim & Dan,
Thanks for your excellent replies. You've given me a lot to think about (which is exactly what I wanted when I posted originally).

Ezra

[Mark]

Ezra, for what it's worth this previous post covers my place betting experience on very logical. almost all 2/1 or less favorites. I elected to bet $25 win and $100 place as these amounts were comfortable and met my profit goals if successful.

A year of Pinnacle and K1's difficult to fault was profitable but exhausting. 540 W/P bets over 40 weeks netted 5% or a .98 ROI before rebate. Betting win alone would have increased the return 2%.

For what it's worth, my experiences were many and no doubt particular to my analysis preferences and psychological triggers.

A 3/5 minimum gravitated to 7/5 over the course of the year via 2.40/2.20 place mutuels, breakage burnout and winter months proving less reliable.

A shotgun approach to playable tracks was costly. Many circuits didn't yield to my particular brand of logic. My next round will be more selective.

The burnout factor snowballed with time and higher odds requirements. 12 bets a week required reviewing at least 100 and following 12-36 passes to a no-go odds close.

I only confirmed my horse's line choice unless the lead was necessary and in doubt. In retrospect, that's a remarkable tribute to PL-5 and worth the price of admission alone.

Hopefully, Ian and PTC will pick up where Pinnacle left off. I exit the year with a plan to automate K1 bets at M/L minimums, betting win only and foregoing the vet process, freeing time for higher odds and exotics.

It's a great game, thanks for prompting me to put thoughts to paper.

[Roghaltz]

Ezra, for what it's worth this previous post covers my place betting experience on very logical. almost all 2/1 or less favorites. I elected to bet $25 win and $100 place as these amounts were comfortable and met my profit goals if successful.

A year of Pinnacle and K1's difficult to fault was profitable but exhausting. 540 W/P bets over 40 weeks netted 5% or a .98 ROI before rebate. Betting win alone would have increased the return 2%.

For what it's worth, my experiences were many and no doubt particular to my analysis preferences and psychological triggers.

A 3/5 minimum gravitated to 7/5 over the course of the year via 2.40/2.20 place mutuels, breakage burnout and winter months proving less reliable.

A shotgun approach to playable tracks was costly. Many circuits didn't yield to my particular brand of logic. My next round will be more selective.

The burnout factor snowballed with time and higher odds requirements. 12 bets a week required reviewing at least 100 and following 12-36 passes to a no-go odds close.

I only confirmed my horse's line choice unless the lead was necessary and in doubt. In retrospect, that's a remarkable tribute to PL-5 and worth the price of admission alone.

Hopefully, Ian and PTC will pick up where Pinnacle left off. I exit the year with a plan to automate K1 bets at M/L minimums, betting win only and foregoing the vet process, freeing time for higher odds and exotics.

It's a great game, thanks for prompting me to put thoughts to paper.

Very interesting stuff Mark. I can certainly see the appeal of a hard & fast rule system, though it does sound like a lot of work. Have you switched to PTC yet? My experience with them so far has been great.

Ezra

[Mark]

Ezra, yes to PTC. Top drawer, unfortunately for me, many of his thoroughbred tracks run at night and I've yet mastered sleeping soundly with money on the table. A long way of saying I hope to increase my business there.

As you probably know, ELP opens today and Ian is offering a meet-long 12% rebate on P4's there, a net 10% effective takeout. He deserves all the support our members can provide.

Have a fine weekend.

[Roghaltz]

Ezra, yes to PTC. Top drawer, unfortunately for me, many of his thoroughbred tracks run at night and I've yet mastered sleeping soundly with money on the table. A long way of saying I hope to increase my business there.

As you probably know, ELP opens today and Ian is offering a meet-long 12% rebate on P4's there, a net 10% effective takeout. He deserves all the support our members can provide.

Have a fine weekend.

I understand about the sleep issue. I go back and forth about it myself, being on the East Coast.

Saw the email from Ian. I am definitely going to take a stab at the ELP Pick 4 today...

Good luck.
Ezra