Winning / Losing streaks…

[DanG]

Winning / Losing streaks…

CMarvin posted this interesting thread on the subconscious impact on our wagering and Gupta made some good analogies toward day trading.

http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8158

Ron Tiller posted this interview with Mike Maloney who discussed (among several topics) the very real impact of streaks in our game.

http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8068

My experience doing this for a long time now is streaks are undeniable in their existence. I’m writing because I’m currently going through two extremes. The current losing streak was preceded by one of my best sustained periods in many years. Note taking does reveal some truths about these periods depending on how detailed your journals are.

Handicappers; like hitters in baseball go through different stages during the year; from the best of times to slumps…

Euphoria…

• Baseball: Everything looks like grapefruit coming to the plate and you never foul off your pitch. Every pretty girl in the stands is chanting your name and the after game beer tastes like nectar from the gods.
• Racing: Energy is high, the close ones go your way and you enter each new card with genuine positive expectation. These are the ‘walk on water periods that keep so many of us pursuing more of them.

Grinding…

• Baseball: Still managing to get a decent mix of hits to outs, but not really squaring any pitches with any great impact.
• Racing: managing to hold your own, while minimizing losses; but fouling off a few fastballs down the middle that previously you were hitting out.

Slump…

• Baseball: Most pitches look like Nolan Ryan is throwing golf balls on the corners. When you do hit it square its right at somebody. The water cooler in the dugout suddenly has a new shape after a Louisville slugger makeover. :mad:
• Racing: Losing tough photo’s, riders / stewards decisions have you talking to a computer monitor while your loved ones start to look at you like Jack Nicholson in the Shining. :eek: When you do get one set on a tee, you second guess your core information and apply detail when it wasn’t necessary.

The latter is myself currently and the ‘euphoria was the period preceding it. Throughout my gambling life I usually follow extreme highs with an almost arrogance in wagering where I would rather win a prize in brilliancy, then taking what the defense is giving me. Some become complaisant after winning and don’t do their work; I make the opposite mistake in that I get less sleep and start over-analyzing situations to my detriment.

When your posting that Tiago won the Derby, it’s a sure sign you’re not getting enough rest! :D

HTR does what it does…It provides an edge day in / day out to so many different types of players. Many outside of HTR feel it’s a ‘pace only program. While pace is a core value, it provides an edge all types of cappers regardless of their approach.

Spot plays have become a fantastic grounding tool since joining HTR. They are great teachers of the nature of streaks and have become a source of comfort when the free style play has down times. It’s amazing how they seem to work together in alternating streaks and evening out the roller coaster we ride.

How do we get out of it?

Some say walk away for awhile and that should work for many people and who am I to say otherwise. My records say just the opposite however; I walk away for brief periods after scores as a reward for the time put in. Losing streaks of various degrees have been followed by positive runs, so I’ve learned to just ride them out and attempt to maintain concentration.

One more great thing about HTR; This forum provides a nice Dr. Melfi couch to vent your thoughts during both the good and the bad times. Fact: Not all gamblers in life want to see you win. There is an inherit jealousy among many and this is after all a zero sum game. To our benefit these negative traits don’t seem to apply within this group of people. Just the opposite in fact; they seem to pick you up when you’re being kicked and offer sincere congratulations when all the stars align.

Its reason #1,369 to subscribe to the best service in racing. :cool:

Sorry about the length and thanks for the couch…Sure beats the prices at the shrinks these days! :)

[Donnie]

When the losing streaks start for me, Dan, I look to see if I am adjusting to the changes in the game. Not talking long term changes, but the cyclical changes that come about EVERY year.
Zito summed it up brilliantly while explaining DaTara's Belmont win. (read this in the local paper the next day while waiting 4 hours on the tarmac for our plane to depart!) He said that DaTara is a "summer horse".
"You know. The one's that are not developing as quickly in the Spring for the Classics, so we hold back on them. But now as we approach summer we focus on them as they start to develop." <obviously paraphrased now>
I believe sometimes the handicapper doesn't align their choice selection method with what happens in the game "at this time of the year". Everyone has heard someone exclaim, "I can't wait for the winter meet. I ALWAYS do better then!" Maybe it is because their style of handicapping works better during that time of year. This points also to your spot-play comment. Over the haul they even each other out. Maybe one spot play is strong during one part of the year, while another pulls it's weight at another time of year. You mentioned in another thread about the "fire sales" going on in many of the barns now, to make room for fresh young horses. A play based on class may suddenly tank at this time of year, because class based on Claiming prices may not be realistic.
I love the Spring, cause HTR FIGS2 shows me which horses are developing and getting stronger race by race. Many of us struggle towards the end of the year. Many people play less when the losing streaks become apparent. But this year I will approach it a little different. Gonna try to see if I can hold off those losing streaks.

[DanG]

Great points Donnie about the cycles in our game and life in general. The horses, barns and certainty the players go through it.

As you said; this is where good record keeping is a must. It hasn’t been pretty writing out the last few days, but it’s the only way to learn and stay ahead of the tax obligations.

[OPM]

Dan:
do you have a betting plan? I am formulating one right now but I bet(pun intended) that once you go on a winning streak you start to bet on marginal horses and thus you start a new streak the other way. I will post the plan here and maybe we can have a really good dialogue.
A plan does not mean you will be successful because you still need the discipline to follow the plan. The same goes for everything else in life, you have to have discipline in order to succeed or all you will have is potential.

[DanG]

Dan:
do you have a betting plan? I am formulating one right now but I bet(pun intended) that once you go on a winning streak you start to bet on marginal horses and thus you start a new streak the other way. I will post the plan here and maybe we can have a really good dialogue.
A plan does not mean you will be successful because you still need the discipline to follow the plan. The same goes for everything else in life, you have to have discipline in order to succeed or all you will have is potential.
Yes Gupta;

% of bankroll (with session like profit taking each 30 days…or not) and each type of wager is funded separately and tracked that way. Some of the spot plays are modified - progressive. Zero action bets out of the main fund and once a wager types fund is exhausted, that bet is out of action until the next session. Trifectas were this years experiment and it went dry, so it must be studied and tried again next session.

Aside from the pick-6, the pick-4 is the focus of my play and by far the best returns.

As far as betting; discipline is one of my strong suits. I haven’t bet recklessly in almost 20 years and it wasn’t easy; I used to be wildly aggressive. :eek: Pressing during winning streaks isn’t really an issue; my main issue is over-complicating the process and reading too much into scenarios.

My records have shown one overwhelming consistency over the years…streaks happen in both directions with close finishes. With such a focus on grass racing and all the tight pictures, it just goes with the turf that a few random head-bob’s can turn 5 figure days into 4 figure losses.

Hope I didn’t come across in this thread like I’m ready to climb the Brooklyn Bridge! :D This has been an excellent year, but I just needed to vent with something that is reoccurring in my own play when I miss fastballs that I normally hit.

BTW: I also am contemplating leaving out the Friday night cards at Hollywood for the good of my health. (Or at the very least. pre-betting at some point) My play clearly fell off on the following Saturday the last few years and its no coincidence in my eyes.

[qhrick]

Winning / Losing streaks…

Euphoria…

• Baseball: Everything looks like grapefruit coming to the plate and you never foul off your pitch. Every pretty girl in the stands is chanting your name and the after game beer tastes like nectar from the gods.


Dan, I haven't been having much fun either as of late
These streaks are undeniable and will come and go
The baseball analogy is very apt as I often tell people when the racing is going well it's like you're "seeing" the ball really well. You seem to select most the right races/bets to play, you win photos, you have good racing luck, your thought process is clear, good bets/plays just seem to jump off the page

But when you cross the gray line and enter the horseplayers twilight zone, it all becomes fuzzy. Races all look the same, horses look the same, decisions are tougher and you always seem to bet the wrong events. It's as if you develop blurred vision.

I've often wondered why things change from seeing things so well to not so well. It is certainly many things are possible but hard to define at times. All of the sudden no 9th inning miracles at the end of the day, no last second saver bets that work. Certainly less fun

So what to do?
Here's what I try:
When it's going well:
- stay focussed, remain humble, appreciate wins, keep working hard, remain aggressive

And when it turns south:
- I always consult past records to reassure myself that the sky is not falling
- I examine current records to see if betting patterns have changed somewhat
- I may get a little less aggressive but continue playing, best way for me to deal with slumps is to play out of em. You never know when a few good wins are coming
- I may get a little less exoctic in approach, shortening up bets a bit, like maybe a little less pick 4 / supers, bets tuff to cash under any circumstances
- I do believe that frame of mind in general improves dramatically ( for me ) just by cashing a few bets, albeit small wins. Once I hit a few bets here and there, I can usually get back to better thought processes.

No matter how well you play this game, there will be moments even the very best players will question why they even do it. This can be a very humbling game at times. But the alternative would be the so-called real job. I always remind myself the no one ever forced me to play this game and no one ever guaranteed success.

At any rate, thanks Dan for your monumental contributions
When I pound my desk in disgust at my next unbelievably unlucky loss, I will think of you!!
-rick

[DanG]

Rick;

Thanks very much for your excellent advice [post #6]; it means a lot coming from someone I have so much respect for.

Cheers my friend and I hope all is well in your life.

[del_dog]

You guys put up some great ideas in this thread.

Hollywood or any track late late night was like flying cross country to me.
I either do NOT play the "late nighters" or I do not play the SAt cards at all.

Normally skip the late late nighters. I don't like 'em much anyway especially Holly.

I think it's easy for people to under-estimate the rested part of rested and ready.