Double Carryover and hello

[parman]

Hi to HTR family and thank you to KM to making such a nasty program.

"First Time Caller, long time listener." I have been living in silence on the site reading at my own pace for awhile now and enjoy the talk amongst the readers and felt it was time to say hello.

I was just curious how many players play the SoCal pick 6 when its a large carryover such as tomorrow and get excited the night before such as I do each time as i do when the pot approaches 2M. I enjoy reading KM, njcurveball, Donnie and DanG valuable input to questions and answers as they pertain to me.

With that being said who do you like tomorrow? I have only hit 4 of these in 2 years of playing them but they have been decent scores. Believe it or not i was very close in the monstor back a coulpe months ago when the east coaster won that record payout. I hit 5 of 6 and missed the heavy fav in race 5 if you can believe that one. This is definitely a hobby for me to keep my mind of my day business which is stressful in that little thing they call the mortgage banking housing implode a market. I am not sure which is more of a gamble actually given the risk versus reward.

I play the pick 4 and have used the K1 ratings very effectively to find the lone single to make my play around which has help me pad my bankroll. Not quite like funding loans at day of sale, but much more fun and exciting. I keep waiting on the longshot in leg 4 to hit for a nicer score in one of them when i am alive to the field and waiting for the payoff. K1 keeps getting me there, and KM i hate it when you are right in those occasions.

Anyway, just felt it was time to say hello. I am not good at replies but am good at reading.

Thank you Ken for holding me by the hand in the beginning to get me setup last fall. My learning curve was at least 120 days before it began to click but my cash withdraws are much more frequent now as a result of my constant studying and testing and i have sent you some referrals but not sure if they have signed up.

Have a nice eve and i will post my winning ticket just in case someone wants to cash with me!!!

My wife and i would like to attend the seminar next month and hopefully i can fit it in my schedule. If anything i might fly in for the day like a 1 day business trip i often go to and back.

Kevin
Parman is a golf term and also a loan term by the way.

[DanG]

Best of luck today Parman!

I wouldn’t say “only” 4 pick-6’s in that time period. That’s a pretty good chunk with a rough gamble.

Relatively small fields and no turf is very sad for me personally; but it did = more sleep! The winner will have sharp poker skills today imo.

Example;

1st leg [Race-3] K-1 and 2 are both dropdowns from high volume barns. It’s that time of year when large outfits that get 2yo’s must “cull” certain older stock to make room for the babies. Baffert & O’Neill fit that profile and it’s up to us to figure out if the used ‘cars are worth the sticker price. (Geez; that was a callus way of putting it, sorry :o )

Baffert for instance is running #7 ‘Informed / a 4yo Ky bred Tiznow out at 25k for the Lewis trust. His TPG rating is good as a “B” as it should be given his overall strength. If one dares to just look at when the Lewis’s place for sale signs with Baffert there is a 0-9 stat if you’re willing to trust it.

Only Baffert claimers for the Lewis Trust:
Track Date Race PGM Horse ClPrice Claimed Fin L-Cla L-Tag Odds
DMR 7/22/2006 10 2 Consistent $20,000.00 Y 9 3 -1 4.5
DMR 7/30/2006 2 2 Gold Commander $25,000.00 Y 9 4 50 8.8
DMR 8/25/2006 1 7 Apalachee Tiger $80,000.00 Y 2 1 0 8.5
DMR 9/3/2006 3 8 Look Closely $50,000.00 Y 4 0 -1 3
DMR 7/27/2007 6 7 Worthy Cause $25,000.00 4 1 0 3.5
DMR 8/26/2007 8 6 Chips Are Down $62,500.00 9 1 0 26.1
HOL 5/30/2007 3 4 Fortified $62,500.00 6 3 0 8.2
SA 9/26/2007 7 4 Chips Are Down $20,000.00 2 2 62 8.7
SA 9/27/2007 8 6 Point of Impact $25,000.00 12 1 0 10.7
As Ken has correctly pointed out many times; trainer stats of a small sample nature have a way of biting players in the wallet when they are taken at face value. This is one that would give me pause as far as a single, but of course; to each his own in our game.

Wow…Mortgage / Banking as your livelihood, so a photo in the last leg and your heart beat doesn’t change a beat! :eek: You’ve maintained a healthy outlook with that roller-coaster lately so racing must be like a Pacifica Margarita at Del Mar. :)

All the best today; Don’t be a stranger when you nail these 6 and buy the 1st round at the seminar!

Personal side note: I would guess I have 4,376th posts in the recycle bin when I deleted thanking individuals for contributions. Every time I finish typing I have this nagging feeling I’ve left out 35 people who have generously offered their time.

[km]

Hey Kevin, glad you finally chimed in, thanks for the nice compliments, good to hear you are making hay with HTR.

You have a ------- jjjjob? I'm sorry, that is a DQ for HTR :D

[Donnie]

welcome aboard Kev. If ya got questions, fire away!

K1's.......ya gotta love 'em!

[krokey]

Hey Gents:

I too love the P6 challenge in SoCal. Have seen some success and even when I loose I get a kick out of talking about how close I was.

Does the K rating change with the selected PL-Line?

Also, most seem to suggest using PL-5 but it looks like PL-7 has quite some success in SoCal. But, I'm not good enough with the software yet to show the data?

Best of luck to all playing the carryover today.

[Rick]

Yes. The (K) changes with the PL.

Just open a race in something like the KM screen and click the +/- to the right of the PL. You can then watch the (K) change as you step through the PL's.

[Donnie]

Dang guys, I never play the Pick 6. My interest in Tri's was peaked this last wekend at PRM's tournament. First time in my life I have hit multiple tri's in one day!! LOL! But then again, I rarely play them either!

What advice do you have for the Pick 6 bets? How do you play it and how large do your tickets get?

[krokey]

For me, its all about how you fashion your ticket. It depends on the type of race right? I go deep (choose multiple horses) in the 2yo maidens and low dollar MC events and try to single one or two races elsewhere.

My tickets are relatively low I think, less than 100 bucks on a regular basis but I have learned, you just can't buy a winning ticket. Either you think you know who will win or you don't. My budget doesn't allow large tickets in the thousands.

My best story was a 90k winner on a 16 dollar ticket. That's what I'm talking about. :D

[tomcat]

Welcome to the family Kevin.

My thought when I read your opening post was:

A p6 is just a p4 with 2 singles.

[DanG]

Baffert for instance is running #7 ‘Informed / a 4yo Ky bred Tiznow out at 25k for the Lewis trust. His TPG rating is good as a “B” as it should be given his overall strength. If one dares to just look at when the Lewis’s place for sale signs with Baffert there is a 0-9 stat if you’re willing to trust it.

As Ken has correctly pointed out many times; trainer stats of a small sample nature have a way of biting players in the wallet when they are taken at face value. This is one that would give me pause as far as a single, but of course; to each his own in our game.


Wins for fun... :o

Just like I said; easiest single since sliced cheese! :D

Now everyone and their Aunt Martha are invited to the dance. :(

[km]

unbelievable today, who would have expected Van Berg and Moreno could win in the same day? that's literally a million to one shot from two trainers both rated < 100, i can't imagine anyone played both on their p6 ticket

if they did, they deserve a mil

[DanG]

unbelievable today, who would have expected Van Berg and Moreno could win in the same day? that's literally a million to one shot from two trainers both rated < 100, i can't imagine anyone played both on their p6 ticket

if they did, they deserve a mil
They deserve 100 times the amount!

Complete bust out here; I hope someone among us took home something besides Mrs. Lewis who had her ½ million dollar yearling (3rd race winner) claimed for 25k.

Wow…As TomCat always says; were not the only ones gambling here; these owners are playing against a stacked deck more often then not.