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DanG
24th June 2008, 11:34.46 AM
Yes its Tuesday; time for some fun with numbers…:D

Who are the best mad bomber trainer / jocks in North America and who brings in a price once a decade?

Criteria:

• Last two years of data.
• Trainer minimum 250 starts.
• Jockey minimum 500 starts.
• % of longshots home is based upon Ricks longshot chart criteria of >= $16.25.
• Very small meets were excluded.

Top 30 bomber trainers:
Rank Trainer Plays Long% High
1 Inirio Olivo I. 453 6.0% $61.40
2 Salazar Marco P. 269 5.6% $72.80
3 Grissom O. Dwain 272 5.5% $56.20
4 Thomas Monte R. 273 5.1% $76.20
5 Arnett Jon G. 476 5.0% $63.00
6 Periban Jorge 357 5.0% $90.00
7 Vienna Darrell 258 5.0% $58.80
8 De Paulo Michael P. 259 5.0% $52.20
9 Estrada Eberd 320 5.0% $66.20
10 Murphy James W. 281 5.0% $138.60
11 Collins Timothy M. 307 4.9% $182.00
12 Herbst Preston L. 390 4.9% $47.00
13 Kaelin Forrest 329 4.9% $49.20
14 Napier William J. 274 4.7% $88.40
15 Schosberg Richard E. 401 4.7% $42.40
16 White Vincent 341 4.7% $90.40
17 Kazamias Peter 256 4.7% $33.40
18 Stute Melvin F. 344 4.7% $75.40
19 Livesay Charles 265 4.5% $58.20
20 Allen Jack L. 266 4.5% $44.60
21 Guillot Eric J. 266 4.5% $91.80
22 Love, Sr. Alan 266 4.5% $119.60
23 Katryan Abraham R. 466 4.5% $32.80
24 Ryan Derek S. 534 4.5% $66.40
25 Sider Alvin 384 4.4% $43.80
26 Rodak Geraldine 407 4.4% $123.00
27 Costa Frank 385 4.4% $95.00
28 Wainwright John C. 340 4.4% $90.40
29 Clark Edward T. 274 4.4% $62.60
30 Ashford, Jr. H. Ray 279 4.3% $43.80
Top 30 chalk trainers: (Or bottom 30 depending upon your perspective)
Rank Trainer Plays Long% High
1 Sleeter Kevin G. 259 0.0% $12.80
2 Walder Peter R. 416 0.0% $15.60
3 Catalano Wayne M. 726 0.1% $18.20
4 Chambers Mike 371 0.3% $30.60
5 Martin John F. 662 0.3% $41.20
6 Gatis Christos 315 0.3% $23.80
7 Melton Christopher W. 252 0.4% $19.60
8 Haynes Ernest M. 480 0.4% $21.60
9 Wolfendale Howard E. 606 0.5% $20.80
10 Northrop, Jr. George 375 0.5% $29.20
11 Bonde Jeff 496 0.6% $33.60
12 Howard Neil J. 321 0.6% $29.40
13 Beattie Todd M. 755 0.7% $24.40
14 McBride Barbara I. 706 0.7% $65.80
15 Reese Cynthia G. 278 0.7% $30.40
16 Angevine Pamela J. 276 0.7% $19.40
17 Morreale Jake V. 272 0.7% $88.60
18 Stall, Jr. Albert M. 664 0.8% $24.20
19 Norman Cole 262 0.8% $31.00
20 Dwoskin Steven 388 0.8% $30.60
21 Joy Kevin J. 387 0.8% $44.60
22 Lopez Pedro 258 0.8% $24.40
23 Davis Scooter 255 0.8% $19.40
24 Davidson M. Brent 254 0.8% $42.80
25 LaFleur Girard E. 252 0.8% $111.40
26 Gilchrist Greg 250 0.8% $39.00
27 Englehart Chris J. 1486 0.8% $34.20
28 Hartman Chris A. 727 0.8% $33.00
29 Pletcher Todd A. 2331 0.9% $76.00
30 Mogge Wayne D. 346 0.9% $29.40
Top 30 bomber jockeys:
Rank Jockey Plays Long% High
1 Da Silva Eurico Rosa 1268 4.7% $118.20
2 Garcia Francisco 829 4.5% $161.80
3 Perez Miguel A. 718 4.5% $69.20
4 Penalba Cecilio 708 4.4% $84.80
5 Baird Jerry 617 4.4% $60.80
6 Ramos Adrian B. 532 4.3% $55.00
7 Deverell Dean 963 4.2% $107.50
8 Compton Perry 1153 4.0% $81.40
9 Alvarado Junior 803 4.0% $310.80
10 Landeros Benny C. 781 4.0% $93.80
11 Canchano Aldo 504 4.0% $125.40
12 Contreras Luis 1128 3.9% $154.00
13 Peltroche Elias 700 3.9% $126.20
14 Colon Luis H. 623 3.9% $109.40
15 Yaranga Yuri 913 3.8% $81.00
16 Saenz Diego 971 3.8% $183.20
17 Santos Romualdo 541 3.7% $116.60
18 Collazo, Jr. Jorge E. 1164 3.7% $123.80
19 Benavides Daniel 570 3.7% $93.60
20 Blanc Brice 897 3.7% $110.00
21 Olguin Gerry 820 3.7% $166.00
22 Bryan Kerry 662 3.6% $82.60
23 Clark Kerwin D. 1188 3.6% $55.80
24 Marcano Josue 526 3.6% $202.00
25 Flores Laureano 502 3.6% $118.80
26 Adam Mathieu G. 561 3.6% $113.20
27 Mitchell Gallyn Vick 818 3.5% $63.60
28 Peltroche Fredy 1083 3.5% $158.40
29 Freites Alexis 602 3.5% $89.40
30 Figueroa Omar 749 3.5% $120.20
Top 30 chalk jockeys:
Rank Jockey Plays Long% High
1 Baze Russell A. 2534 0.2% $23.60
2 Davila, Jr. John R. 1364 0.7% $76.00
3 Black Anthony S. 662 0.8% $33.20
4 Dominguez Ramon A. 2678 0.8% $54.00
5 Foley Tom 604 0.8% $117.00
6 Tohill Ken S. 1175 0.9% $42.40
7 Paucar Edgar 2767 1.0% $70.60
8 Rose Jeremy 2278 1.0% $60.20
9 Dunkelberger Travis L. 1180 1.0% $33.20
10 Endres Jessica 678 1.0% $29.40
11 Sanguinetti Anne 1230 1.1% $68.80
12 Beech Clive T. 523 1.1% $66.50
13 Carr Dennis 502 1.2% $35.00
14 Faine Craig Phillip 665 1.2% $111.40
15 Pennington Frankie 2030 1.2% $58.40
16 Pino Mario G. 1923 1.2% $52.80
17 Panell Dyn 1268 1.3% $55.20
18 Velazquez John R. 2277 1.3% $54.80
19 Carpio Rely 706 1.3% $31.40
20 Strunk Erika 621 1.3% $105.60
21 Fogelsonger Ryan 1393 1.3% $107.20
22 DeCarlo Christopher P. 614 1.3% $50.40
23 Berry M. Clifton 2068 1.3% $82.20
24 Bravo Joe 1880 1.3% $85.00
25 Elston David C. 600 1.3% $124.80
26 Karamanos Horacio 1713 1.3% $61.20
27 Gomez Garrett K. 2510 1.4% $44.60
28 Stevens Scott A. 1545 1.4% $38.20
29 Whitney Dana G. 2706 1.4% $99.00
30 Schneider Joseph 509 1.4% $115.20
I get the feeling Peter Walder & Russell ‘the muscle aren’t on too many contest slips. ;) 416 runners for Walder and NOT ONE paying more then $16.25 is R-E-M-A-R-K-A-B-L-E as the Little Rascals used to say. :eek: At least Wayne Catalano had one. :p

hdcperAZ
1st July 2008, 02:33.16 AM
Dan,

Just wondering if I could get some clarification of the data you were kind enough to share. With regard to the trainers, do plays represent all plays at any post time odds or just ones that actually went off at greater than or equal to $16.25?

My thoughts here are that some trainers have a larger number of longshot runners and therefore, the win % of longshots will most likely be higher for just that reason. Thus, it would be beneficial to know for each trainer, what % of their plays were longshots and compare that to their longshot win %. This may explain why a trainer like Walder has a 0% of longshot winners, especially if few of his plays actually when to post above 7/1.

Further, the same criteria for jockeys is applicable, explaining why Russell Baze has very few longshot winners (since he seldom rides a longshot) vs. an extremely poor quality jockey that basically rides longshots every time he goes to post (inflating his longshot win %).

Again thanks for the great info,

Hdcper

DanG
1st July 2008, 06:39.38 AM
My thoughts here are that some trainers have a larger number of longshot runners and therefore, the win % of longshots will most likely be higher for just that reason. Thus, it would be beneficial to know for each trainer, what % of their plays were longshots and compare that to their longshot win %. This may explain why a trainer like Walder has a 0% of longshot winners, especially if few of his plays actually when to post above 7/1.

Further, the same criteria for jockeys is applicable, explaining why Russell Baze has very few longshot winners (since he seldom rides a longshot) vs. an extremely poor quality jockey that basically rides longshots every time he goes to post (inflating his longshot win %).

Good points Hdcper;

It was an ‘all-burger in that all odds ranges were used. You’re absolutely right in that the low profile barns / riders just run / ride in that price range more often. That query was a one time set-up on a slow Tuesday, but now you have me curious just how many >7-1 shots Walder and Baze for example actually are involved with.

In hindsight you nailed the correct way to display this with actual # sent out in the price range to get an impact value…but that would have made too much sense! :D I’ll leave the well thought out studies to Ken in his newsletters. :cool:


Peter Walder sorted by odds, >= 7/1: [31 – 0 – 2 – 4]

TRK DATE RACE PGM TOTE FIN
AP 7/6/2007 7 3 26.7 7
GP 2/18/2007 6 10 21.4 7
GP 4/1/2007 9 4 18.1 7
MTH 7/9/2006 10 1 12.9 5
GP 2/18/2007 8 12 12.2 11
GP 1/7/2007 8 6 12.1 11
GP 1/7/2007 8 7 12 6
GP 1/4/2008 9 11 11.4 4
AP 6/9/2007 3 6 10.9 2
GP 2/24/2007 1 8 10.7 3
HAW 9/21/2007 10 11 10.3 10
AP 6/1/2007 4 5 9.1 4
AP 8/8/2007 5 3 9.1 4
GP 2/17/2008 4 2 9.1 4
AP 7/27/2007 8 9 8.9 4
BEL 9/17/2006 4 8 8.5 5
GP 4/19/2008 8 9 8.3 3
MTH 7/21/2006 3 5 8.3 3
AP 7/20/2007 4 5 8.2 9
GP 1/11/2008 7 4 8 2
MTH 7/30/2006 7 5 7.8 7
GP 2/17/2008 3 10 7.4 4
AP 8/29/2007 5 9 7.3 6
GP 1/31/2007 2 7 7.3 7
AP 9/9/2007 2 3 7.2 5
CRC 11/1/2007 8 4 7.2 6
DEL 9/26/2006 5 6 7.2 5
GP 3/9/2007 5 1 7.2 5
CRC 11/11/2007 6 8 7.1 3
AP 5/26/2007 6 5 7 9
AP 8/8/2007 2 5 7 5

Russell Baze sorted by odds, >= 7/1: [95 – 8 – 7 – 15]


To your point Russell is just about on que with a sample that averages 10 – 1. I told you guys I’ve been lacking sleep :eek:…thanks for cleaning this up Cap! :o Now with tickets for the Rays / Sox tonight I can’t guarantee tomorrow won’t have another wild thread! :p
TRK DATE RACE PGM TOTE FIN
HOL 6/30/2007 10 1 44.3 9
HOL 6/7/2008 4 10 26.9 9
BM 12/6/2006 5 6 19.9 4
CRC 11/10/2007 10 9 19.9 3
HOL 12/8/2007 2 4 19.3 7
HOL 4/27/2008 6 2 18.8 3
HOL 12/8/2007 8 7 16.2 7
EMD 8/20/2006 8 5 15.8 9
SA 4/7/2007 3 6 14.7 6
GG 12/31/2007 1 4 14.5 3
SR 7/20/2007 10 8 14.4 6
PLN 6/30/2006 10 1 13.7 5
GG 6/6/2007 7 6 13.2 4
GG 5/26/2007 7 7 12.8 5
PLN 7/4/2006 8 2 12.8 7
SR 8/5/2007 8 4 12.8 8
OP 4/14/2007 11 1 12.6 4
SOL 7/23/2006 9 3 12.4 3
GG 9/20/2006 6 5 11.7 3
GG 5/26/2007 2 5 11.6 5
BM 4/4/2007 8 4 11.5 2
GG 1/25/2007 4 5 11.5 4
GG 8/28/2006 1 3 11.4 3
SR 7/26/2006 7 8 11.1 4
GG 12/12/2007 4 4 11 2
BM 3/27/2008 7 2 10.8 5
PHA 9/29/2007 9 3 10.8 1
GG 12/15/2007 5 6 10.4 9
OP 4/14/2007 9 7 10.2 1
BM 4/14/2008 7 7 10 5
SA 4/7/2007 8 7 9.9 10
PLN 7/7/2006 8 2 9.8 2
GG 10/6/2006 3 4 9.5 7
GG 5/4/2007 2 5 9.4 6
GG 1/14/2008 3 8 9.4 7
PLN 7/3/2006 10 9 9.4 4
GG 6/7/2007 6 9 9.3 5
HOL 7/2/2006 1 1 9.3 5
GG 10/15/2006 6 8 9.2 3
GG 12/28/2006 5 8 9.2 9
GG 1/24/2008 6 2 9.2 9
GG 8/28/2006 7 8 9.1 2
BM 9/19/2007 4 4 9 1
GG 6/10/2007 2 7 8.9 5
GG 9/21/2006 6 8 8.8 2
SR 7/28/2006 7 2 8.8 6
GG 9/6/2006 6 5 8.7 3
GG 6/11/2008 4 2 8.7 5
BM 4/20/2008 9 3 8.6 1
GG 12/1/2007 2 7 8.6 3
GG 1/27/2008 8 7 8.6 12
SR 8/2/2007 6 2 8.6 3
BM 9/21/2007 3 2 8.5 5
BM 4/30/2008 7 3 8.5 7
GG 6/14/2008 9 6 8.4 8
HOL 6/7/2008 9 7 8.4 5
BM 8/29/2007 7 7 8.3 4
BM 2/11/2008 3 4 8.3 5
GG 8/25/2006 7 4 8.1 6
GG 5/21/2008 5 9 8.1 1
BM 10/21/2006 8 5 8 4
GG 4/27/2007 6 5 8 4
OP 4/14/2007 10 1 8 5
BM 8/30/2007 1 3 7.9 4
GG 2/1/2007 5 3 7.9 5
GG 6/10/2007 5 3 7.9 3
OP 4/14/2007 7 5 7.9 3
BM 9/19/2007 5 8 7.8 9
BMF 8/9/2007 6 7 7.8 6
SOL 7/11/2007 6 2 7.8 4
GG 1/31/2008 3 5 7.7 6
PHA 9/29/2007 7 5 7.7 5
BM 10/26/2007 5 10 7.6 4
HOL 12/22/2007 9 1 7.6 6
BM 10/8/2007 5 2 7.5 9
BM 4/14/2008 3 1 7.5 4
BM 4/25/2008 1 4 7.5 5
GG 1/17/2008 4 7 7.5 2
GG 9/23/2006 5 6 7.4 4
GG 5/3/2007 3 3 7.4 1
BM 5/8/2008 4 6 7.3 6
GG 5/26/2008 9 3 7.3 5
GG 4/29/2007 6 2 7.2 3
GG 5/12/2007 4 4 7.2 6
SOL 7/16/2006 12 6 7.2 5
BM 10/18/2006 4 6 7.1 3
BM 5/8/2008 3 2 7.1 1
BMF 8/16/2006 5 2 7.1 10
GG 10/6/2006 7 3 7.1 1
GG 12/16/2007 4 1 7.1 2
SR 7/29/2007 10 7 7.1 4
BM 11/26/2006 6 10 7 6
BM 4/21/2007 6 6 7 6
GG 5/28/2007 4 3 7 8
GP 1/27/2007 4 8 7 3