Paceline Selection

[Glen]

The following text below is direct from the HTR Help File on Pacelines. It explains the 5 PL's in HTR and how to select your own PL's. In a little bit I'll post a method tha has worked well for me. Anybody else have any feedback?

Ken wrote:
+Paceline modes and selecting your own lines.

HTR-Software provides broad flexibility to select (or automatically select) pacelines. You may over-ride or change any paceline chosen by the computer. Be aware that changes you make are permanent and remain in the racefile for future processing or modeling. Pacemode 5 has tested the most reliable and is used as the default.

The HTR-Software provides 5 different paceline modes for you to use automatically. From the Full Card access menu, press or click <F5> to select the default mode you wish to use.

(1). Last Line Only selects the last line of every horse only, unless the horse fell or did not finish, then the 2nd line is picked. This mode is best for those wishing to pick their own pacelines as the last line is selected at least 50% of the time in most races.

(2). Selects the line with the best Performance rating (speed figure) in the last three starts.

(3). Similar to (2), but selects the TWO best lines. Lightly raced horses only have 1 line selected.

(4). Scores each paceline in the horse's record with such criteria as Class Distance, Surface, Effort and Days ago. A single line is selected that best represents the horses ability for today's race situation.

(5). Same as 4, but can select 2 or more lines if all qualify. This mode produces the most dramatic changes in output.


*To view, change and select your own pacelines, access the Single Race Menu.

1. Highlight the race you wish to handicap.

2. Press or click <5>. Past Performances. A condensed past performance screen will appear. The HTR-Software has marked the it's chosen lines with the # symbol. To remove or add a line, press <enter> over a highlighted line. You can toggle the # on/off this way. When finished press <ESC>. Your pacelines will be saved permanently in the file. If you select multiple lines, they will be averaged.

3. When viewing data from any handicapping screen (ie: Consensus), you may press the numbers 1 thru 5 and instantly change the paceline mode in use. This will change the data and rankings for the Variable Data. The Static data will remain the same.

[Glen]

Few factors to consider when selecting PL's…
Form, improving or declining form?
Pace, how will the horse run against todays pace?
Trainer changes, will it help or hurt the horse?
Layoff, good or bad for todays conditions?
Age, will younger horse benefit from layoff today or improve/decline in form?
Distance/Surface, if possible use similar to todays condiditons.
Comments, Very Important!! Watch out for excuses.
Trainer intent
Class Drops/Rises
Method as follows:
Open PRAT
Open HTR PP <Screen 5>. If you shrink your HTR screen size to 5X9, you can view both screens at the same time so you do not have to flip flop/go back and forth.
Change PL to 2 so it does not alter the modeler stats of 1 and 5. Since those are the two modeler PL's I look at most.
Start selecting PL's that match todays projected pace and conditions/factors from above list.
After finished, go to Velocity <Screen 1> to see what you came up with.
Couple more thoughts on which PL's to pick.
Last paceline, Was the last PL's representative of what he can do today? In Pace matchups, improving/declining form.
Younger horses, give them extra credit for excuses in comments line and improving form.
I feel comfortable picking anywhere from 1 PL to as many as 4. Picking just 1 PL can be risky… What are the odds that the horse will run exactly as it did in that race? Very slim. IMO, best to pick a couple and go with an average of a few.
Ok enough for now. Anybody else have any ideas?

[hurrikane]

I guess I started with PL5 because I didn't know what else to do. Now all my data is in Pl5 though I do switch back and forthe to pl1 if I have a hammer. I almost always check the pace line to be certain HTR isn't picking something off the wall and if it hasn't included the last race I make sure there is a very good reason or add it to the mix. I can' say for certain that is has made any difference at all...it may take me off a horse and that is usually good but it has never influenced my play selection.

PS....
why do I have to scroll across the screen to see the type. I saw an earlier thread about widening the screen..is this what we wreally wanted?

[Glen]

Hurrikane,

PL5 is very good. When you look at the stats, it is by far the superior PL method when looking at all factors over the long term. An if you looking to use an automated computer based PL method, it is about as good as it gets. If I have the time, I prefer to do manual PL because it is fun and kinda like crossword puzzle work. However, manual PL work is not a realistic thing for me to do all the time because of time contraints.

[Cliff]

Thanks for the post Glen.....I will tinker around with it.

Cliff

[MikeDee]

I made a decision early on not to get involved with the pace line thing. I agree with you Glen when you say that PL5 is superior, I think it is as well.

Don't have a problem with your method Glen except that it is a manual process, which I am adverse to doing.

Now if there was a way to have the program look at the PPs and when PL5 does not fit it would use the PL best suited to the situation, and just tell you which one it used. I think that Carl suggested something like this a while back.

[Ron]

I feel there is a certain mix of art, intuition and science involved in paceline selection
that will usually out perform any mechanical system out there.

It seems to me that the most predictive and successfull paceline selections
occur when the selector apply's the right amount of "art" to the science.

In my experience, I've noticed that certain race conditions can be counted on to
produce a "what you see is what you get" result from standard paceline procedures
while others will not.
Recognizing these situations can be the key to working with the more dependable
ones and passing on those that suggest too many unresolved issues.

Some races that I find to be less predictive and unreliable then others in there paceline
output are:

*Turf races where many entries having only dirt lines to choose from.
*Dirt races with many entries that have only turf lines to choose from.
*Races where too many of the entries have only odd distances to choose from that are
furlongs off from todays race contions.
*Races over 10 furlongs.
*Races featuring several imported selections where there are no pacelines to work
with. (Don't know about anyone else, but when I bet them, they loose, when I don't
they win)
*Races where 2 and 3 year olds have only 1 or 2 races showing and radical
improvement can take place for many reasons.
*Races where position rather then pace will determine the outcome.

I'm sure there are a few more of these that have slipped my mind, but when they occur I
usually recognize them and shift my perspective away from pace and more towards angle play.

Can anyone add any more to this list?

Or.....how about starting a list of the best or most dependable
races to use pace analysis on?


Ron

[Glen]

Mike,

True I agree. Manual selection is very time consuming and not realistic option 95% of the time for me. But when I get to do it, it's kinda fun at times. As many of you all know, I use PL1 for ev plays...Bad thing about PL1 is that it is a skinker when compared to PL5 in other areas. Therefore I advise others who are looking for the best "overall" results to stick with PL5.

Ron,

Good post. I'm gonna sleep on that one and reply back tomorrow. It's getting past my bed time...

[Neil]

Glen wrote:

3. Change PL to 2 so it does not alter the modeler stats of 1 and 5. Since those are the two modeler PL's I look at most.

Uh oh. Am I doing something wrong? Does it matter to the modeler what lines are selected from HTR screen 5? I usually use PL5 but have heretofore felt free to select or deselect lines without concerning myself about modeler integrity. Am I scrod? I thought the modeler used its own logic to calculate data?

Neil

[Rick]

Neil,
You are OK.

Take a look at your modeler; you are able to change PL within the program.

[George]

Neil........Rick is right, the modeler should not be affected. Think what Glen
meant is you could set manual lines under PL1 and then export to your db
as PL1 but really have your manual PL's.

[Neil]

OK,
Thanks

n

[Carl]

Well, I have had three days to think about this.

Think I want something new, want Ken to write it in his spare time <g>.

I think it would revolutionize horse racing handicapping, and put HTR so far in front of all competition that it would take them a light year to catch up.

I want some new called PACELINE VELOCITY . Let's call it "PV".

It would
1) Incorporate the last three running lines of a horse.
2) Would measure the increase/decrease and rate of increase/decrease of certain key handicapping factors.
3) O.K., I must admit I don't know much more than that about my idea yet, that's why I am hiring Ken to "work out the details".

Seems cool though eh? Or at least different. A moving composite. Only with computers...

Actually if/when we get the option of downloading last three race lines in the new program, I will be able to play with some of the change in paceline form myself, I think that would be interesting.

later,
Carl