Championship Blog

[km]

Starting now = use this thread post any information, news, rumors, chat, opinions, thoughts and emotions live and direct from the NHC or HPWS.

Please help your fellow bbs members not at the tournaments by posting results as soon as known. Tommy also has a blog from the Orleans (unless he qualfies on Wed for NHC) on his tournament site. I'll do my best to post standings, news and details about the HTR players. I'm assuming the DRF will have their updates (slow) from Red Rock as well, but it can be frustrating to get anything more than the top 5 from that.

[km]

I'm leaving Wed late morning and driving to Vegas. It's about a 4- hour drive for me door to door to the Orleans, seeing some of you that evening around 730pm in the poker bar. I'll also be at the Thursday night NHC welcome banquet. Our team has two entries at the NHC (Mike Mayo and Jim Sims) and four at the HPWS (Mike, Jim, Ken and Marsha Mayo).

Just a matter of hours before the competition begins, here's a penny for my thoughts

NHC players = It's best to play defense in the mandatory races by using 10/1 up horses on Friday. Don't waste bullets on horses under 5/1 on Friday, they can't hurt you. If a big price hits in a mandatory, and you don't have it, it is a major setback. About 10% of the players will be on almost any given horse in the mandatory races because hardly anyone will use the chalk. Last year, all the Friday mandatories except one were won by chalk (i hit the good one and it mattered a lot at the end). Chalk parade is actually a desireable scenario for HTR players, if your longshot isn't runnin, root like hell for the favorites. You want to keep those mandatory points down which makes the optionals more valuable and turns the contest into a late inning pressure cooker like last year.

At the HPWS, there is less timing strategy, but for sure you MUST hit bombs to win at some point. The winner last year had nearly 3000 points. To achieve that in 33 tries that you'll need =

5 winners paying average pay $40/$20 (cap)
7 winners paying average ;ay $30/$13
14 winners avg paying $15/$7 (impossible, that's 42% winners at 6/1, no chance)

The math just does not justify playing horses under 10/1; unless you already have a solid total later in the contest.

[Gary Brous]

Deb from the orleans put at table 60. anybody else at table 60? Hope it near a power outlet.

[km]

It's a beautiful morning in SoCal as I get ready to drive to Vegas. Not a cloud in the sky and sunny. Hopefully the forecast will be wrong as usual and Santa Anita can run. They say the rain is coming this afternoon, but i would bet against it being significant.

Whatever happens, we'll deal with it at the tournament the next few days. But you would have expected SA to have a contingency plan ready so they didn't wipe out the Sunshine Millions on Saturday.

Back later when i get to the Orleans.

ps: the mandatory races for NHC won't be announced until Thursday.

[km]

Arrived in Vegas, sunny but cool temperatures. Never saw a cloud on the way, but the rain was coming according to the news.

Hoping to upload photos to Rick from my cell , he'll post here without captions

Chalk won the 9th at GP in the slop, no good for our friends at the Last Chance with only a few races left from TUP. Hail Mary time for Tommy and Alan.

[overdog]

Hi gang;

Am at the Orleans in 1169. Hope to see more of the gang tonight. Which bar is the "poker" bar? Must have missed that one!

Saw Mayo @ registration this morning....no one else was around yet.

Overdog
a.k.a. Fraser Rawlinson:cool:

[Rick]

KM's view from room in LV.

[km]

Ran into Ernie, Daven and NC Tony during registration.

Cards for Thursday no good, shallow. Rain could hurt it even worse if no grass and lots of scratches as we saw at GP today. Who knows what's in store for SA tomorrow.

See you all tonight in the bar - Ernie tells me things have changed back there, so just go to the back are near the poker tables and we'll improvise if necessary - at least i hope the poker tables are still there.

It was all chalk late in the day at TUP, so no chance for the last chancers i'm sure.

[dehere]

Spent the day handicapping for Friday while sitting at the "loser's last chance" (not my quote, but from Kent Meyer, one of the entrants) tourney. Not a good day for HTR guys - or anyone going for price horses. When I left it looked like it took about $75 or so to qualify for the NHC -which is certainly low for one of these.

Some folks will have great seats for the NHC - others not so much. Lots of card table kinda things stuck around the perimeter of the main seating area. Hopefully those of us who need power will not be in those seats as power will be almost a complete impossibility at lots of those seats. The main seats though are great with a nice work area and a good tv in front of you. The main book screens are great. The hotel is very nice although you feel like you are in the middle of nowhere - and who cares as we are only here to handicap and take home a half million.

I'll be posting here during the contest for folks - if you get lots of posts from me it probable means I'm doing terrible. If I'm in contention I don't think I'll be posting a lot but I will do so on Friday night and as soon as I can after the thing is over. Also, I have a separate blog for family and friends that may have some stuff on it. It is at horseracing.henrydamgaard.com.

Best of luck to everyone for that second place finish - the top prize is reserved for dehere.

[km]

Thanks for the news Henry, much appreciated to get your posts from the Red Rock

We had a great turnout tonight for our get-together near the Orleans poker room. I hope i can remember everyone from the HTR group that was present....if i forgot anyone, blame it on the crown royal

Paul Parker
Mark and wife Jan (qualified NHC)
JB & Barb
Sally and Richard (both qual for NHC)
Daven (Gina coming on Thursday)
Dennis (Tejas Kid)
Fraser (overdog), thanks for posting on the blog Fraser
Henry (dehere) and wife Paula (both qualified for NHC)
Mel and wife Mattie
Mayo and Marsha
TommyC played near)y in a small poker tourney, finished 30th out of 200
Cliff
MVM and son Trevor
Ernie
AlanN
TJ (valupix) and wife
BobbyB
Doug C
Jim Sims

Fun evening, great bunch of people, - hoping to see the rest of our gang at the NHC welcome banquet, Red Rock Thursday night.

[dehere]

The word seems to be that we won't see SA this contest. Nothing definite, but that seems to be the general idea.

Mandatory - day 1

AQU 4 - 10:55
FG 4 - 11:56
GP 5 - 12:11
AQU 8 - 12:49
TAM 10 - 1:34
GP 9 - 2:13
GG 5 - 2:45
OP 9 - 3:11

By 3:11 back to the room to study how to maintain our lead on day 2.

[Rick]

Looks like km sent a leader board.

But I find it hard to read.

[km]

One more race to go at GG, but the day has been a sham for longshot players. Highest price all day was 13/1. We did manage to hit the good one on my ticket and have a total of about 670 points. Bobby B was the only person i spoke with that said he had any winners today.

Sorry about the leaderboard photo above. That was the only leaderboard put all day ???
I'll get the final standings for the day later and report back tonight after i attend the welcome banquet at the Red Rock.

None of the HTR players i talked to had many points, but then again, how could anyone have many points today with the depleted races at FG and GP and SA cancelled. Going to be an interesting next couple of days.

[km]

Horseplayer World Series Day1

683 total entries, 1st prize = $307,350

day money top prize each day = $9,106

top score = 1, 022 points

top HTR scores
Massa/Mayo 679 (22nd place)
John Buckley 674 (25th place)

Very chalky today, highest payoff was $28 winner, no cap horses ($40+)

No grass races with GP, TAM and FG off the grass and SA cancelled

Lots of players at zero

[km]

NHC Welcome Banquet Thursday night. Big turnout at the posh Red Rock banquet room. NTRA and DRF speakers including Steven Crist who encouraged everyone to relax!

TAM added as contest track in case SA cancels.

Mandatory races for Friday excluded SA, but include grass races from GP (which was OFF on Thursday)

Aqueduct, Race 4
Fair Grounds, Race 4
Gulfstream, Race 5
Aqueduct, Race 8
Tampa Bay, Race 10
Gulfstream, Race 9
Golden Gate, Race 5
Oaklawn, Race 9

[DanG]

NTRA and DRF speakers including Steven Crist who encouraged everyone to relax!

Yes…:)

That reminds me of Jerry Brown’s (TG) quote a couple days ago for those who entered both contests…

And to those hardy souls who entered both, you are nuts, and make sure you know where the Infirmary is. Just handicapping 5 (?) tracks and keeping track of post times in different time zones while playing the NTRA contest for 2 days last year almost put me in the hospital.

Hang in there gang…This seems so similar to last year when Ken & company were lurking mid pack entering the far turn. ‘FR3 is where this tournament will be won and here’s hoping enough contestants are “rule-50”.

[Donnie]

Good luck folks!

Past experience tells me today is the day for the long bombs...then tomorrow it will flatten out till later in the afternoon. Dunno why, but it seems to be a pattern.....chalk....bombs....chalk turning to bombs!! KEEP FIRING!!!

[km]

Dan and NJ, sorry i knocked out your posts about the standings

HWS is not affiliated with NTRA and is run by Orleans. Never had realtime or online results. The only place you'll get it is from our players on this bbs

NHC at Red Rock will have periodic on DRF website, maybe every couple of hours.

I'll keep you updated as best i can on both contest standings.

SA and OP have cancelled, this is going to be a short contest day

[DanG]

Dan and NJ, sorry i knocked out your posts about the standings

HWS is not affiliated with NTRA and is run by Orleans. Never had realtime or online results. The only place you'll get it is from our players on this bbs

Contest newbie! :o

Sorry about the ‘greenhorn comments. Stay focused on the bullets left in the chamber and ‘may the horse be with you all! :)

[km]

Bomb at TAM - first race of the contest day - looks like Donnie's prediction may be true for a wild Friday.

That could be the whole tournament at the NHC today with OP and SA gone and if the chalk win most of the other races. Several people probably hit it here - but did anyone risk one of their 7 precious bullets on the first event of the contest at the Red Rock? If they did, they will be far out in front now. I can't touch the horse with anything in HTR except that he was one of the best closers. I'm on my way to the tournament room now, will report back later.

[km]

I'm still in my hotel room, watching the chalk come in race after race so far. Whoever hit that bomb in the 1st at TAM will be in the drivers seat today!

one of the problems with a depleted racing situaiton like today is that players will all tend to jump on the same races,= the obvious large fields and grass events.

There was a switch in the mandatory at the NHC with OP out, check the DRF website for details and maybe standings at this link, i'm leaving for real now and going into the tournament room.....

http://www.drf.com/nhc/2007/nhc.html

[DanG]

As of 3:49pm Friday…

Go get em Henry, Mike!!! (Dehere & MVM) :)
• 1 David Neuburger $82.30

• 2 Phillip Lam $78.70

• 3 Paul Stath $78.10

• 4 Ann Goldstone $78.10

• 5 Steve Stupka $76.90

• 6 William Marsh $75.40

• 7 Jan Hurst $72.50

• 8 Henry Damgaard $69.90

• 9 Joseph Boyle $68.90

• 10 Michael McKee $66.30

[DanG]

NHC opens with a longshot

By DAVE TULEY

LAS VEGAS – The Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship had its rabbit.

The NHC, the end of a year-long process to name 2007's Handicapper of the Year, started Friday morning at the Red Rock Resort and will run through Saturday. A field of 278 handicappers were entered and are competing for a purse of more than $1 million with $500,000 going to the winner.

William Marsh of Oak Lawn, Ill., broke from the gate fastest in the first race of the contest, the opener at Tampa Bay Downs, as Crafty Grey won at 31-1 and returned $64.80 and $25.80 to place.

Contestants make 15 mythical $2 win-and-place bets each day with eight races being mandatory and the other seven being player’s choice from the remaining contest tracks, with payoffs capped at $42 to win and $22 to place. That means that Crafty Grey’s win was worth just $64 contest points for Marsh, the only contestant to use an optional on that longshot, but that still gave him nearly a $50 lead ahead of his nearest competitors when the first standings were posted at 10:15 a.m.

Santa Anita and Oaklawn canceled racing Friday, so that left just Aqueduct, Tampa Bay, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds and Golden Gate as the available tracks.

As of the first mandatory at 10:55 a.m., the fourth race at Aqueduct, one contestant was a no-show, Jay D. Clark, who had qualified at Santa Anita. In the standings posted at 11:04 a.m. after the first mandatory, Joseph Boyle, 46, of Monmouth Beach, N.J., moved into the lead with $68.90. Lawrence Katz, 58, of Toronto, tied Marsh for second at $64. Steve Stupka, 44, of Ankeny, Iowa, was a distant fourth at $30.60.

But there's plenty of racing to go.

[DanG]

Mandatory Day-2…

For Saturday, January 26:

• Tampa Bay, Race 3
• Aqueduct, Race 4
• Oaklawn, Race 5
• Oaklawn, Race 7
• Fair Grounds, Race 9
• Gulfstream, Race 10
• Golden Gate, Race 8

[Huguenot]

Dan, on your tournment standings, you mention Henry who I know is Dehere, but what about Michael McKee who is just below him in 10th place. Isn't he MVM on our board?

[DanG]

Dan, on your tournment standings, you mention Henry who I know is Dehere, but what about Michael McKee who is just below him in 10th place. Isn't he MVM on our board?
I need help there Hug… :confused:

I know it’s terrible, but I know many more people by their “handle” than their actual name! :eek:

I hope it is and if so….GO MIKE!!! :)

[dehere]

That board is a little outdated at this point Dan but its nice to know that people can keep up to date on line. Day one is history. The leader has something around $140-$150 but he is pretty lonely at the top as far as I can tell. I suspect that 30th place is in the $80 range with three quarters of the field within one 15/1 horse away from being right there. It was difficult to say the least with OP being canceled. No one expected SA to run so it would probably have been a disappointment had they not canceled as few folks handicapped the track. Rumor has it that they are going to try their hardest to run tomorrow but I suspect the jockeys and trainers may have something to say about that.

No need to give a rundown as I'm rundown and it was only fun for a little while. I'm looking forward to more fun tomorrow.

[dehere]

I don't think too many folks were worried after the bomb in the first at Tampa. After looking at that race any pick of that horse could not have been based on any handicapping method in general use around the track. I think the gentleman got about $10 for the rest of the day - but it must have been a thrilling way to start a contest. (I apologize if the person who had the horse used HTR to get it - I meant nothing unkind in my comment - just that the horse didn't seem to make any sense under conventional handicapping logic - but I guess that is the way these contests go eh?)

[DanG]

Hang tough Henry… (And all the HTR family!)

Recharge those batteries and best of luck tomorrow.

[km]

NHC STandings at this link

http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=30572

Rich Goodall in second, right behind the leader, GO RICH!

Looks like a bang up contest

[km]

World Series Day-2
Technically over with some garbage left at GG.

Leaders are at or near 2000 points. There were three cap horses today and we didn't hit any of them and some other nice prices today. We had one or two with our team, maybe 1000 points total on one of ours. Won't know about the HTR players until they post the standings in a couple of hours. Hope someone did well today with the limited opportunities.

[Mark]

Dan, my wife wants to kiss you, your posting of the 1:10 standings had her, Jan Hurst, in 7th. We ended the day at 52nd at around $80.

Tomorrow, we'll give them a run.

Best of luck to all of us.

[Donnie]

Andy-
Yes, that is MVM. Great horseplayer, great guy! Hope everyone finished the day up well!

[km]

Day is final at the Red Rock NHC, MVM must have it that last bomb at GG and moved into 6th place for the day. Good going Michael McKee, congrats on a nice showing today.

Looks like Santa Anita is going to run on Saturday - at least according to some sound rumors i have heard.

The rest of you should not fret about your positions right now, i had only 30 points at the end of day one last year was in 198th place and finished 2nd with a head of steam at the end.

[Donnie]

Gotta give a shout out to my man, Wes Burquest!! Go, Wes, Go!!!

Very nice job Richard!!!!

[km]

Final Day 1 NHC Standings at this link below (thanks for the list Wright, it eats up too much of the blog scroll, so we'll just post the links). Also read Dave Tuley article on the same pages.

http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=30572

HWS =
Did not see any familiar names with a quick glance at the top 30 in standings. Our best entry is just short of 1000 points in about 60th place.

Back tomorrow with final results -- go HTR players!!

[Donnie]

Ken-
I am curious as to how many entries do they have at the WS with both Biggies running at the same time....? Any idea how many people in total may be playing both tournaments?

BOMBS AWAY!!!

[Wright Stuff]

Ken-
I am curious as to how many entries do they have at the WS with both Biggies running at the same time....? Any idea how many people in total may be playing both tournaments?

BOMBS AWAY!!!

There are 683 entered in the HWS. I have identified at least 13 playing in both with 11 of those "dual" qualifiers. I will post a complete list on Sunday or Monday with their point totals and finishing position.

[dehere]

If no one has seen this - here is a link to a web cam at SA. I've been watching the thing pretty much all night and from the equipment they have had on both the cushion and the grass course they are literally squeegying the water out of the track. I'm predicting racing at SA today.

http://www.santaanita.com/track/webcam.php

[DanG]

SA – Race-7…

I’ll bet Ken is having some McCann’s Mojave déjà vu! ;) (Assuming of course he is first time snorkel today!) :eek:
http://www.sunshinemillions.com/NR/rdonlyres/90309151-899F-43C4-9031-5C21467C6A14/11305/Featurephoto2007.jpg

[Donnie]

Thanks Eddie! Appreciate that!

Henry---
I don't know...CNN says CA is going to get another round of heavy rains today! They may start the races, but will they finish!

Good luck to all you guys in the tournaments today! Very disappointed I couldn't be there. When our other Instructor told us back in July they were due with their first baby this week, I knew I'd never get it off....they had a baby boy Wednesday morning.

KICK ASS AND TAKE NAMES TODAY!!!

[Zaf]

Thanks for the link Dehere. There are a lot of horses running on that little track inside of the turf course now. Is that a training track ( dirt or synthetic ) ?

Go get em today guys ! Crush em :D

[Zaf]

Very interesting , looks like the asphalt chunk removers are out there now. Those guys walking the track from the inner to outer rail carrying white bags & bending over frequently.