TLC Screen Question

[3EZPayments]

I have looked through the Terms and Symbols but could not find out what ! neans in the TLC screen under FPS

Example in todays DEL first #1 "Debbies a Trip" under the FR3 it shows 51.65!, and in MAXVEL it shows 51.65*

Same race in TLC Under FR1 #2 58.95*, FR2 #6 54.95*

So is the * better then the !...?

Thanks
Rusty

[DanG]

I have looked through the Terms and Symbols but could not find out what ! neans in the TLC screen under FPS

Example in todays DEL first #1 "Debbies a Trip" under the FR3 it shows 51.65!, and in MAXVEL it shows 51.65*

Same race in TLC Under FR1 #2 58.95*, FR2 #6 54.95*

So is the * better then the !...?

Thanks
Rusty
Good question Rusty;

Just looking at that race my best guess is…

• ! = In addition to the top rank a significant edge in velocity (of .35, or more give or take over the 2nd ranked animal.)
• * = Top ranked and / or in the case of “AP” the top 3 get the asterisk.

I mainly export so I can’t be 100% sure, but it seems logical.

BTW: I can't speak to the diff between MaxVel & HTR2...That's in Ken's ballpark.:)

[3EZPayments]

Thanks Dan;

I thought that also, but wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something as I am very new to the program. And I must say these folks did a great job building it.

Thanks Again
Rusty

[njcurveball]

• ! = In addition to the top rank a significant edge in velocity (of .35, or more give or take over the 2nd ranked animal.)



I believe it is higher and the number is .50. And just to repeat an earlier thread topic, ALL of the fractions are not noted in the export field NFPSX.


The new HXD export is wonderful and allows tests on gaps higher or lower than the .50.

It also allows lots of other nice things without a lot of extensive programming.

From a programming standpoint the .50 barometer is probably the way to go. However, if you model by track you will find that number varies by many factors, rating, distance, class, surface, etc. All the usual suspects.

Jim

[njcurveball]

Same race in TLC Under FR1 #2 58.95*, FR2 #6 54.95*

So is the * better then the !...?

Thanks
Rusty

From a strict Mathematical standpoint, the answer is NO! However, if you are modeling the track you may find that certain fractions are much more important.

Position is also important. Especially when you are talking 3rd fraction. Click the VEL screen for your example race and you will see #1 Debbie is an estimated 8.5 lengths back at the 2nd call. So even with the late advantage she is not catching the field.

Jim

[km]

Welcome 3EZ, good questions.

The (!) is one of the original symbols used in HTR Velocity Feet-per-second ratings. As NJ said, it indicates a 0.50 gap between the top rank and the 2nd ranked horse in that factor. (*) is any other top rank. The Maxvel was built 10 years after the orginal velocity screens, and I didn't use the (!) on purpose.

Years and years of testing 'gaps' has not led to any solid conclusions. Except perhaps, that the (!) are too obvious with respect to Fr1, E/P, and A/P and get over bet. The others do not get too much attention from the public, but are sometimes based on dubious paceline selection: such as turf line for dirt race today that will create a larger Fr3. Maybe PL4 or PL6 would solve that problem.

Anyway, testing has always concluded that the rank=1, regardless of the gap, was a superior method of finding longshots and overlays. In the case of Fr1, it doesn't matter if it is 0.01 difference, the results tend to stay static about 18%-19% winners overall, but the ROI improves with the smaller gap. Which is all very interesting because you would think the gap would have some effect. With some velocity measures, such as A/P, the gap does produce a higher win%, but the ROI does not keep up as these horses are too obvious. So A/P=1 in a close call, is a better bet for money as the public is not as aware.

[tomcat]

I use them this way, if playing exotics, any horse w/ a KenMark is going to be
a contender. As ken says each one by itself may not lead to consistent winners, but if you look at K1or 2, the Kenmarks (as I call them), and/or TR 1or 2....you have a good chance to get the winner and/or the tri or super. You need a way to reduce the field to contenders....it's my way.

Good luck,

[3EZPayments]

Thanks for the help guys.

Rusty