DanG
27th May 2007, 11:47.51 AM
A couple months before Ken programmed the PPX function in HTR I was researching something similar. Naturally, he went beyond what my programming and imagination allow and it’s become an excellent tool when applied in context.
Pg 15 of this [July / Aug 2006] HTR newsletter speaks to the PPX basics.
http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/JUL-AUG%202006%20HTR%20NEWSLETTER.pdf
January of 2006 Ken wrote an article on “Quantifying Jockey Performance”. He concluded that within reason for each 100 points in improvement / decline 1pt can be assigned to a PER rating for example.
Pg 7 of this [Jan 2006] HTR newsletter speaks to “Quantifying Jockey Performance”.
http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-JAN2006.pdf
Combining these two concepts my goal was to establish plus / minus thresholds to the various PPX categories. Each category has its own range and characteristics so I’ll try and break them down individually with what I’ve found so far.
1st: In part because it made the research easier and also because I’ve found it to be very powerful, all statistics are based upon the paceline that ‘paceline-5 is choosing. (The information is in export HX7 and when two lines are chosen it displays the furthest line back in days back.) I like basing the PPX theory on a representative paceline rather than only using the most recent. It’s also lost on the public as they are obsessed with any change from the last race.
Now,…I know you’re saying if you don’t export to access do I have to flip between the PPX screen and any past performance screen to see which line PL5 has selected. Yes, for now. Far be it from me to make more work for Ken. How he keeps up with everything now is just amazing, but members have said he does custom work at terrific rates and perhaps he could hook you up if its something you think is worth wild.
Enough of that…How to rate each category and what categories to use?
I.e.; Previous rider =200, Today’s rider =300. ((300-200)/100) = +1pt which can be applied to the PER rating for example. (Obviously if the situation is reversed the result is negative and it’s subtracted.)
Among the categories I’ve found effective I’m using…
• Jockey
• Trainer
• Pedigree
• K
• Pace (custom)
• HTR (custom, whole number)
• PP (Custom)
• FLD
• TPG (Custom)
Each category has their own unique ‘range of min / max, so a scale was needed as the divider. Ken used 100 for the Jockeys, so I tried to approximate that # using standard deviation for all and it worked out OK. (You ‘true math pervertS will have a much more clever approach, as I never went beyond public high school AND I’m talking my beloved NJ. :D) The STDEV for the Jockey rating is 75 and in The same ballpark that Ken used, so I carried it through to the other ratings.
(BTW: I’ve found the workout rating needs a minimum threshold for today’s rating for this to be effective. A 10 point move from 65 to 75, just doesn’t produce a linear table against the entire population. We all know what 75 – 85 + means ;))
Standard Deviation Variable; (If its not listed it adds / subtracts using the whole number rating without dividing)
Category Divider
Jockey 75
Trainer 93
Pedigree 111
K 12
HTR (custom) 16
PP (Custom) 3
FLD 2
Example: Previous (PL5) Trainer = 200, today’s trainer = 400. ((400 – 200)/93) = 2.15 etc…
I set up the previous paceline 5 data of the above categories and used the STDEV as the dividing variable and rounded to the nearest integer. The majority of ratings fall between -4 and +3 (8 individual data points.)
1st, one factor that those of you who are much smarter than me (meaning all of you) will want to apply is to “limit” today’s threshold with certain ratings. Obviously if today’s K is 80 and the previous is 50, its not the same 30 point net gain than if the ratings were 110 and 80 respectively. I was not smart enough to build that into my initial research, but I do apply this reasoning to my day to day output.
How to rate the results? Again, you will have a better approach, but I used PER =1 and the animal in question must have started at least 5 times to eliminate the animals with huge fluctuations. The “base” IV value for PER=1 is 1.93. All subsequent data is measured against that and all horses in the following tables are PER =1.
ADJUSTMENT CATEGORY
PLUS / MINUS JKY TRN K PED HTR FLD
<= -4 1.30 1.2 0.25 1.6 0.29 1.29
-3 1.37 1.32 0.44 1.61 1.06 1.30
-2 1.59 1.37 0.67 1.76 1.42 1.61
-1 1.86 1.84 1.58 1.95 1.65 1.82
0 2.06 2.05 2.17 1.98 1.88 2.00
1 2.18 2.37 2.04 2.01 2.16 2.14
2 2.40 2.71 1.92 1.97 2.41 2.24
>=3 2.85 2.75 1.77 2.32 2.8 2.34
Again…I can’t stress enough how important establishing a min threshold for today’s rating that is NOT reflected in this data. A “2 point” move in Pedigree is MUCH more significant from 250 to 450, than 50 to 250 obviously.
The next three categories are a little off the beaten path and require exporting to a DB etc, or a custom HTR adjustment.
• “PP” ~ Prev post position vs. today is only applied when the prev PP was at two turns. Not enough impact comparing sprints to sprints and the one turn miles etc.
• “PACE” ~ is my own rating that attempts to quantify the pace pressure in a race. It can be approximated with HTR’s Q5 rating and I think would be a valuable addition to the PPX screen. No division is necessary in my version, but if using the strict Q5 rating you might want to experiment with divided by at least 2.
• “TPG” ~ is just HTR’s TPG rating without the +,- symbols and expressed numerically. I.e. “A” = 1, “F” = 5, “N” =0, etc… (BTW: I did eliminate “N” from this data to avoid comparing today to zero in the past.
ADJUSTMENT CATEGORY
PLUS / MINUS PP PACE TPG
<= -4 0.62 1.59 XXX
-3 1.62 1.64 XXX
-2 1.72 1.76 1.39
-1 1.80 1.89 1.71
0 1.88 1.95 2.04
1 1.98 2.07 2.12
2 2.02 2.11 2.25
>=3 2.36 2.25 XXX
Once again…This test was not set up properly and I now use a conversion table that is loosely based on these principles, but better reflects the power of today’s relevant HTR data. I hope this sparks a few ideas among the brilliant minds out there and the good thing is I feel most of you are way ahead of me and I’m certain Ken is.
Happy Memorial Day weekend to all the HTR family and in particular those who have served and sacrificed so much.
Pg 15 of this [July / Aug 2006] HTR newsletter speaks to the PPX basics.
http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/JUL-AUG%202006%20HTR%20NEWSLETTER.pdf
January of 2006 Ken wrote an article on “Quantifying Jockey Performance”. He concluded that within reason for each 100 points in improvement / decline 1pt can be assigned to a PER rating for example.
Pg 7 of this [Jan 2006] HTR newsletter speaks to “Quantifying Jockey Performance”.
http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-JAN2006.pdf
Combining these two concepts my goal was to establish plus / minus thresholds to the various PPX categories. Each category has its own range and characteristics so I’ll try and break them down individually with what I’ve found so far.
1st: In part because it made the research easier and also because I’ve found it to be very powerful, all statistics are based upon the paceline that ‘paceline-5 is choosing. (The information is in export HX7 and when two lines are chosen it displays the furthest line back in days back.) I like basing the PPX theory on a representative paceline rather than only using the most recent. It’s also lost on the public as they are obsessed with any change from the last race.
Now,…I know you’re saying if you don’t export to access do I have to flip between the PPX screen and any past performance screen to see which line PL5 has selected. Yes, for now. Far be it from me to make more work for Ken. How he keeps up with everything now is just amazing, but members have said he does custom work at terrific rates and perhaps he could hook you up if its something you think is worth wild.
Enough of that…How to rate each category and what categories to use?
I.e.; Previous rider =200, Today’s rider =300. ((300-200)/100) = +1pt which can be applied to the PER rating for example. (Obviously if the situation is reversed the result is negative and it’s subtracted.)
Among the categories I’ve found effective I’m using…
• Jockey
• Trainer
• Pedigree
• K
• Pace (custom)
• HTR (custom, whole number)
• PP (Custom)
• FLD
• TPG (Custom)
Each category has their own unique ‘range of min / max, so a scale was needed as the divider. Ken used 100 for the Jockeys, so I tried to approximate that # using standard deviation for all and it worked out OK. (You ‘true math pervertS will have a much more clever approach, as I never went beyond public high school AND I’m talking my beloved NJ. :D) The STDEV for the Jockey rating is 75 and in The same ballpark that Ken used, so I carried it through to the other ratings.
(BTW: I’ve found the workout rating needs a minimum threshold for today’s rating for this to be effective. A 10 point move from 65 to 75, just doesn’t produce a linear table against the entire population. We all know what 75 – 85 + means ;))
Standard Deviation Variable; (If its not listed it adds / subtracts using the whole number rating without dividing)
Category Divider
Jockey 75
Trainer 93
Pedigree 111
K 12
HTR (custom) 16
PP (Custom) 3
FLD 2
Example: Previous (PL5) Trainer = 200, today’s trainer = 400. ((400 – 200)/93) = 2.15 etc…
I set up the previous paceline 5 data of the above categories and used the STDEV as the dividing variable and rounded to the nearest integer. The majority of ratings fall between -4 and +3 (8 individual data points.)
1st, one factor that those of you who are much smarter than me (meaning all of you) will want to apply is to “limit” today’s threshold with certain ratings. Obviously if today’s K is 80 and the previous is 50, its not the same 30 point net gain than if the ratings were 110 and 80 respectively. I was not smart enough to build that into my initial research, but I do apply this reasoning to my day to day output.
How to rate the results? Again, you will have a better approach, but I used PER =1 and the animal in question must have started at least 5 times to eliminate the animals with huge fluctuations. The “base” IV value for PER=1 is 1.93. All subsequent data is measured against that and all horses in the following tables are PER =1.
ADJUSTMENT CATEGORY
PLUS / MINUS JKY TRN K PED HTR FLD
<= -4 1.30 1.2 0.25 1.6 0.29 1.29
-3 1.37 1.32 0.44 1.61 1.06 1.30
-2 1.59 1.37 0.67 1.76 1.42 1.61
-1 1.86 1.84 1.58 1.95 1.65 1.82
0 2.06 2.05 2.17 1.98 1.88 2.00
1 2.18 2.37 2.04 2.01 2.16 2.14
2 2.40 2.71 1.92 1.97 2.41 2.24
>=3 2.85 2.75 1.77 2.32 2.8 2.34
Again…I can’t stress enough how important establishing a min threshold for today’s rating that is NOT reflected in this data. A “2 point” move in Pedigree is MUCH more significant from 250 to 450, than 50 to 250 obviously.
The next three categories are a little off the beaten path and require exporting to a DB etc, or a custom HTR adjustment.
• “PP” ~ Prev post position vs. today is only applied when the prev PP was at two turns. Not enough impact comparing sprints to sprints and the one turn miles etc.
• “PACE” ~ is my own rating that attempts to quantify the pace pressure in a race. It can be approximated with HTR’s Q5 rating and I think would be a valuable addition to the PPX screen. No division is necessary in my version, but if using the strict Q5 rating you might want to experiment with divided by at least 2.
• “TPG” ~ is just HTR’s TPG rating without the +,- symbols and expressed numerically. I.e. “A” = 1, “F” = 5, “N” =0, etc… (BTW: I did eliminate “N” from this data to avoid comparing today to zero in the past.
ADJUSTMENT CATEGORY
PLUS / MINUS PP PACE TPG
<= -4 0.62 1.59 XXX
-3 1.62 1.64 XXX
-2 1.72 1.76 1.39
-1 1.80 1.89 1.71
0 1.88 1.95 2.04
1 1.98 2.07 2.12
2 2.02 2.11 2.25
>=3 2.36 2.25 XXX
Once again…This test was not set up properly and I now use a conversion table that is loosely based on these principles, but better reflects the power of today’s relevant HTR data. I hope this sparks a few ideas among the brilliant minds out there and the good thing is I feel most of you are way ahead of me and I’m certain Ken is.
Happy Memorial Day weekend to all the HTR family and in particular those who have served and sacrificed so much.