running styles and sample size

[Troy]

Hi I have been busy making a few spot plays, and made some track and running style specific spot plays, when I make these plays I get about 100-200 plays with around 30-40 wins, my question is do you think this is enough data to go forward with?

Troy

[DanG]

Hi I have been busy making a few spot plays, and made some track and running style specific spot plays, when I make these plays I get about 100-200 plays with around 30-40 wins, my question is do you think this is enough data to go forward with?
Troy
Troy,

That’s the $64,000 question that has plagued statisticians and spot players since men were carrying clubs.
(I guess some of us still do. :D )

The honest answer is it’s impossible to say with certainty.

Statisticians are fond of the number 30. If you have 30 wins in your sample there seems to be some level of “confidence” going forward. Some say four figures is firm ground. If you show a significant net after 1,000 trials it’s certainly no back-fit.

• My feeling is did you seek out a winning combination…that is did you keep working at it until it won?

• Or…Did you start with running style / angles you know to work at this circuit? If it was this scenario, my experience is it has a much better chance of going forward.

One word of caution with spot plays based on running styles. They can be very seasonal and you need to stay alert and be willing to call an audible if the / weather / track superintendent or the jockey colonies change tactics. (Also, most importantly how is your average price holding out / hit rate.

In closing…If you don’t feel right about it, start a paper test. You won’t lose a nickel and you’ll gain confidence and experience in the process.

Best of luck!