DanG - 2 Questions, please.

[edw]

First, whether or not you win the contest, clearly a Grade I effort. Thanks for the eye-opening insights and your generous explanations.

This was copied from post 176 of the Spotplay Contest thread:

"Try this little spot play (not quite enough plays for this exercise)… I played a modified version of this and frankly did very well at Hollywood this past meet.
• Surf =4 (Artificial)
• LSurf =2 (Turf to Artificial)
• rHTR <4 (1, 2 or 3)"

As I read it, you played strong HTR consensus horses moving from turf to artificial. If that is true, should "Surf =4" (which I believe is turf route) actually be "Surf =5 or Surf =6" or, perhaps, just "Surf = 6"?

I greatly appreciate the idea, just trying to determine whether I'm misunderstanding your intent or that there is a typo or that my brain is out in left field for some reason.

One of the filters you used (on your 3rd contest entry, I think) was nTJ <= 35. As I understand that factor, it is given a value only if the trainer and jockey combination had 11 or more starts (I'm not sure what time period is covered).

From my review of the data, that field looks to have zeroes in 2 instances, when the 11 race threshhold is not met and when the tj combo fails to win even 1 race (the hx4 export definition pdf mentions "-1" for some non-computed fields but does not mention that for this field and my scan of the data show "0" as the lowest value).

Was not also making nTJ > 0 an oversight or a considered exclusion? I'm guessing the latter considering your extreme attention to detail and I can check the value both ways when I get more data in my database but I was just curious and thought I'd ask while it was fresh in everyone's minds.

[njcurveball]

This link has changed but as of today you can find most of the valuable information you need here.

http://www.homebased2.com/km/library.htm

If you scroll down, you should see the link for the HX4 File Spec.

Check out #06 nSurf and #07 nDS. The code of 4 was added to nSurf for artificial (poly).

Your answer leads me to believe you are looking at nDS as if it were the nSurf field.

Good question Ed! Looks like you have done lots of research already!

Jim

[DanG]

Thanks Jim!!!

Your much more efficient than I am.

EDW, (I just hate it when I don’t know someone’s name, or I’m just too old to remember :eek: )

Referring to the export;

nSURF = (The actual racing surface, not always the originally scheduled surface.)
(The nLSURF, is obviously the last surface they were on)

• nSurf = 1 [Fast Dirt]
• nSurf = 2 [Turf]
• nSurf = 3 [Wet Dirt]
• nSurf = 4 [Artificial]

The nDS [Originally scheduled distance surface] field is I think what you’re referring to.

• nDS = 1 [Dirt Sprint] <8f
• nDS = 2 [Dirt Route] >=8f
• nDS = 3 [Turf Sprint] <8f
• nDS = 4 [Turf Route] >=8f
• nDS = 5 [Artificial Sprint] <8f
• nDS = 6 [Artificial Route] >=8f

nCOURSE

• nCourse = 0 [Unknown]
• nCourse = 1 [Main Dirt]
• nCourse = 2 [Main Turf]
• nCourse = 3 [Inner Dirt]
• nCourse = 4 [Inner Turf]
• nCourse = 5 [Artificial]

As far as the nTJ rating. The rating is obviously applied before the live race, so going into a race nTJ = 0 can actually produce some very long prices. Just as in another thread discussing this with Carl about Nakatani’s agent seeking out Matthew Chew to ride that 2TS having not ridden for the barn in at least a year.

The scary one to me are nTJ = 1 or 2 for example. I didn’t want to drive Ken completely nuts and say “0” is OK, but no 2 or 3 and <=35. I think I owe him enough free drinks as it is!

While were on the subject, the TJ in HTR is a tremendous rating. Ken was very clever using it in the Trainer / Jockey rating along with the record w/ the horse.
nTJ Range Win % ROI Notes:
1 4% $0.17 3 / 81
2 7% $0.56 • 78 / 1121
3 8% $0.60 • 229 / 2977
10 – 20 14% $0.78 • Many ties
20 – 30 19% $0.81 • Several ties
30 – 40 22% $0.87 • Few ties
>40 26% $0.88 • R. Baze, Joe Crispin etc.


Tough to find a rating associated with the jockey were the ROI and W% stay in concert.

I hope this answered your question, or did I just confuse the issue?

It’s off to GP!

BTW:
GULFSTREAM PARK CHANGES
SATURDAY MARCH 3,2007
TRACK// FAST---TURF// FIRM
RAIL AT 84 FEET
PARTLY SUNNY HIGH 80'S
+++++ VERY VERY HUMID +++++

[edw]

NJ and Dan, thanks for the replies.

NJ, when I started on my database in January, I went to the library specifically to get the latest file specs. I just went again and the hx3.txt and hx4.pdf (field 6) in the library both just have 3 codes for surface, they don't show poly/artificial. So there are obviously some files I'm overlooking.

Would you (or someone else) happen to know which files show the poly and where those files are? (I hope this isn't going to be one of those where it's right under my nose embarrassing moments.

Thanks again for your help.

[njcurveball]

Ed,

I do not think everything has been updated. That is the problem with a User Guide, as soon as you get it to print, it is out of date.

Check the Newsletters for Poly, I am sure there is a lot in there.

Jim