Spot Play Contest Final

[km]

Boy did i get my money's worth with that $500.

Big high-five and a round of drinks on me to all of you that worked hard on the plays, spent so much time typing them out on the bbs, and most improtantly, revealing creative ideas with HTR data.

It's a shame that NJ, Mark and DanG will not all get to win considering everything submitted and the depth of their efforts.

This new thread will wrap up the contest with the final plays submitted by NJ (2), MikeDee, DanG (2) and Mark. Should push the ROI over the 2.00 mark. Amazing.

I have already emailed MikeDee and told him that i don't want to program that incredible Access query :eek: LOL! It's very complex for me type as Visual Basic code, but luckily Rick has volunteered to run it for us. We'll trust him 100% with the results. Any of you that are good with Access can get the query from Dee and try it also if you want to verify.

I'll run the remaining plays and allow time for feedback and corrections before we declare the winner. Feel free to post comments here.

[km]

NJ's Turf Play got a strong 87% in my test with 740 plays and 17% winners. Super ROI, but not quite enough to get the lead in this tight contest.

(i think this test wins for highest Place and Show ROI if that's any consolation)

ALL 00740 00123 17% 27% 39% 1.87 1.27 1.13 $22.5 0054 $81 1.60

*** RACE CONDITIONS

NSURF = 2 (TURF!!!!!)
NPURS > 9 (Ken's 10k cut-off)
NFLD > 7 (Larger fields, better prices)
NVI < 34 (This number does some great things!)

*** HORSE CONDITIONS (selection criteria)
NQP <> 1 (One quirin speed point was an eliminator in many tests)
RTRN < 4 (Top Trainers, somethings I always look at on turf!)
RCLASS < 6 (Need some class!)
NMLO > 5 ( Very hard to get an ROI over 50% without using this.)
RK > 3 AND RK < 9 (RK is a lil too good to eliminate some, but we need prices!)
RPER > 1 (looking for prices)
NPPO <> 1 (the one post is notoriously bad on turf)
NPPO <> 6 (This is a pure sniper condition)
NWKSC > 0 (Need to show a workout score)
NLDIST < 8.5 (This was an amazing elmination I was not expecting to be good at all!)
NPED > 80 AND NPED < 650 (I am starting to like this "taking out the extremes" theory)
NJKY > 140 (Bad jocks need not apply. The amazing thing was that the lowest ranks were profitable, but the ratings still made for a good eliminator of a few losers)
NWGTCH < 6 ( A small eliminator, but worthwhile)
NFPSX <> 2 (Large 2nd fractions do not help on the turf)
NFTI < 55 (Ken has a good number, seems it picks out the nicer breds who get bet)

[km]

DanG added three small eliminations to his already leading play and storms into the lead passing the magic 2.00 ROI marker - AWESOME Dan!

ROI = 2.12 (+112%)
606 plays
20% winners

PED=1
$ and $$
Males
MLO rank > 1
MLO<>15
FLDSIZE >5 and <12
DIST> 5.5f and <> 7

NO Mcl
Purse >= 10k
NO @ (eliminate any horse with last finish>= 20 lengths back last time)

nLDIST : <11f The turn backs of 12f to 6f just didn’t work out?
nDS : <>5 No artificial sprints
nQP : >1 and <8 Eliminates extremes (A common theme)
nQT3 : <24 Eliminates wicked triple QP-8's
nQFIVES : <8 Eliminates extremes
nRS : <>4 Close up…or…way…way back.
nLFST : >5 Racing experience
nEPR : >97 and <111 Mid – strong class races
nK : >68.49 Scratches the bottom feeders
nHAG : <9 Sorry John Henry
nCHG : <4 Certain equip changes fail in many plays
nFPSX : <>3 Took out RS “S” and he dominate FR3 was poor
rHTR : <>5 Yes, NOT 5. I know it’s shocking.
nWGTCH : >-10 and <8 Eliminates extremes in LBS assignments
nLFIN : >0 and <10 Few “Bogeys”
nTJ : <=35 Sorry Russell B. & Jerry H.
nJKY : >90 and <415 Not the bottom and no Ramón Dominquez
nCLCH : >-15 and <15 Eliminates extremes
nPDIF : <11 Scratches the bottom feeders
rFR2 : >0 and <10 Needs ratable velocity line
rFR1 : >0 Also, needs ratable velocity line
nTOPPACAGO : >5 and <800 Needs best PAC # in this decade!
nTOPPERAGO : >5 and <800 Needs best PER # in this century

[MikeDee]

The following is the SQL on my spot play. I didn't get back on the board in time to post it to the original contest thread.

To run this query you will need a all_hx4 and a all_hx7 table with the same set of data records in them.

For those of you not familiar with sql just start a brand new query in the design view.
Close the tables tab.
Change the view to sql
Click on the sql view
Remove the word select
Paste in the in the following text
Change to the design view

SELECT ALL_HX7.tRACECOND, ALL_HX4.nAGE, ALL_HX4.nACL, ALL_HX4.nCHAOS, ALL_HX4.nCHG, ALL_HX4.nCLA, ALL_HX4.nClass, ALL_HX4.nDIST, ALL_HX4.nDS, ALL_HX4.nEPR, ALL_HX4.nFLD, ALL_HX4.nFPSX, ALL_HX4.nJKY, ALL_HX4.nMLO, ALL_HX4.nLAY, ALL_HX4.nPED, ALL_HX4.nPURS, ALL_HX4.nRS, ALL_HX4.nSTB, ALL_HX4.nSEX, ALL_HX4.nTRN, ALL_HX4.nVI, ALL_HX4.nWKSC, ALL_HX4.rACL, ALL_HX4.rAP, ALL_HX4.rclass, ALL_HX4.rC90, ALL_HX4.rEP, ALL_HX4.rFC, ALL_HX4.rFr1, ALL_HX4.rFr3, ALL_HX4.rK, ALL_HX4.rHTR, ALL_HX4.rIMP2, ALL_HX4.rIMP3, ALL_HX4.rPAC, ALL_HX4.rPED, ALL_HX4.rPSCN, ALL_HX4.rSP, ALL_HX4.rTRN, ALL_HX4.rVEL
FROM ALL_HX4 INNER JOIN ALL_HX7 ON (ALL_HX4.tPGM = ALL_HX7.tPGM) AND (ALL_HX4.nRACE = ALL_HX7.nRACE) AND (ALL_HX4.tDATE = ALL_HX7.tDATE) AND (ALL_HX4.tTRK = ALL_HX7.tTRK)
WHERE (((ALL_HX7.tRACECOND) Like "*gr*" Or (ALL_HX7.tRACECOND) Like "*stk*") AND ((ALL_HX4.nAGE)<>2) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDIST)>=6 And (ALL_HX4.nDIST)<=9) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDS)<>3) AND ((ALL_HX4.nEPR)>=96 And (ALL_HX4.nEPR)<=110) AND ((ALL_HX4.nMLO)>=8 And (ALL_HX4.nMLO)<20) AND ((ALL_HX4.nLAY)<=91) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPED)>=272) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPURS)>=50) AND ((ALL_HX4.nTRN)>150) AND ((ALL_HX4.nVI)>=24) AND ((ALL_HX4.rFr1)<=7) AND ((ALL_HX4.rHTR)=1) AND ((ALL_HX4.rPED)<=7) AND ((ALL_HX4.rTRN)<=8)) OR (((ALL_HX7.tRACECOND) Like "*nw*") AND ((ALL_HX4.nAGE)<>2) AND ((ALL_HX4.nCHG)<>1 And (ALL_HX4.nCHG)<>2) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDIST)>=5.5 And (ALL_HX4.nDIST)<=9) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDS)<>3) AND ((ALL_HX4.nEPR)>=82 And (ALL_HX4.nEPR)<=106) AND ((ALL_HX4.nFLD)>=6 And (ALL_HX4.nFLD)<=12) AND ((ALL_HX4.nJKY)>65) AND ((ALL_HX4.nMLO)<30 And (ALL_HX4.nMLO)>=8) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPED)>=125) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPURS)>10) AND ((ALL_HX4.nSTB)=0) AND ((ALL_HX4.nSEX)=1) AND ((ALL_HX4.nTRN)>90) AND ((ALL_HX4.nWKSC)>=65) AND ((ALL_HX4.rACL)<9) AND ((ALL_HX4.rAP)<=9) AND ((ALL_HX4.rclass)<=7) AND ((ALL_HX4.rC90)<9) AND ((ALL_HX4.rFr3)<=5) AND ((ALL_HX4.rPSCN)<=8) AND ((ALL_HX4.rSP)=2) AND ((ALL_HX4.rVEL)<=5)) OR (((ALL_HX7.tRACECOND) Like "*nw*") AND ((ALL_HX4.nCHAOS)=0) AND ((ALL_HX4.nCHG)<>2 And (ALL_HX4.nCHG)<>1) AND ((ALL_HX4.nClass)=0 Or (ALL_HX4.nClass)>=77) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDIST)<=9) AND ((ALL_HX4.nEPR)>=88) AND ((ALL_HX4.nMLO)>=8 And (ALL_HX4.nMLO)<30) AND ((ALL_HX4.nLAY)<=68) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPED)>=174) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPURS)>=10) AND ((ALL_HX4.nRS)<>5) AND ((ALL_HX4.nSEX)=2) AND ((ALL_HX4.rACL)<=9) AND ((ALL_HX4.rAP)=2) AND ((ALL_HX4.rEP)<=8) AND ((ALL_HX4.rFr3)<=8) AND ((ALL_HX4.rK)<=8) AND ((ALL_HX4.rIMP2)<=8) AND ((ALL_HX4.rVEL)<=4)) OR (((ALL_HX4.nACL)>=83) AND ((ALL_HX4.nCHG)<>6) AND ((ALL_HX4.nCLA)=3) AND ((ALL_HX4.nClass)<>0) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDIST)<=9) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDS)<>3) AND ((ALL_HX4.nEPR)>81 And (ALL_HX4.nEPR)<=98) AND ((ALL_HX4.nFPSX)=0 Or (ALL_HX4.nFPSX)=2 Or (ALL_HX4.nFPSX)=3) AND ((ALL_HX4.nJKY)>=77) AND ((ALL_HX4.nMLO)>10 And (ALL_HX4.nMLO)<30) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPED)>=206) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPURS)>=14) AND ((ALL_HX4.nSEX)=2) AND ((ALL_HX4.nTRN)>50) AND ((ALL_HX4.rAP)<=7) AND ((ALL_HX4.rC90)<=5) AND ((ALL_HX4.rFC)<=4) AND ((ALL_HX4.rFr3)<=6) AND ((ALL_HX4.rIMP3)<=6) AND ((ALL_HX4.rPAC)=2));

[Rick]

DanG,

Post your query in SQL view so I can run it through my database.

Thanks

[DanG]

DanG,

Post your query in SQL view so I can run it through my database.

Thanks
Rick, which one?

The one Ken is referring to, or #4 my last entry?

[DanG]

Rick, I’m assuming you mean # 4. One issue is the HX4 table I use is named [STORE_HX4]

Btw: I eliminated the code that produced win% and ROI. I hope I didn’t screw anything up. I don’t normally use the SQL view. I still use the “cave man” approach! :D
==============================


FROM STORE_HX4
WHERE (((STORE_HX4.rIMP4)<10) AND ((STORE_HX4.rIMP3)<9) AND ((STORE_HX4.rIMP1)<10) AND ((STORE_HX4.nWKSC)<=88) AND ((STORE_HX4.rclass)<9) AND ((STORE_HX4.nFC)<>65) AND ((STORE_HX4.nTOPSHFAGO)<535) AND ((STORE_HX4.nCLM)>3) AND ((STORE_HX4.nTAN)<3) AND ((STORE_HX4.rMLO)>2) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLFWP)<35) AND ((STORE_HX4.nCHAOS)=0) AND ((STORE_HX4.nRUNKS)<6) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLWINF)<>1) AND ((STORE_HX4.nFTI)<70) AND ((STORE_HX4.nGATEBRK)<>1) AND ((STORE_HX4.nClassFit)<2) AND ((STORE_HX4.nWgtCh)<10) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLAY90)<>2) AND ((STORE_HX4.nFPSX)<>2) AND ((STORE_HX4.rVEL)<10) AND ((STORE_HX4.rHTR)<5) AND ((STORE_HX4.nWMAR)<=1) AND ((STORE_HX4.nFTS)<4) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLFIN)<12) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLPOS1)<12) AND ((STORE_HX4.nCLch)>-11) AND ((STORE_HX4.nK)>65.49) AND ((STORE_HX4.nPDIF)<13) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLWINS)<8) AND ((STORE_HX4.nQpc)<46) AND ((STORE_HX4.nHAG)<8) AND ((STORE_HX4.nPPO)<11) AND ((STORE_HX4.nQT3)>6 And (STORE_HX4.nQT3)<24) AND ((STORE_HX4.nCHG)<>2) AND ((STORE_HX4.nPURS)<44) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLAY)<600) AND ((STORE_HX4.nDIST) Not Like 6.5 And (STORE_HX4.nDIST) Not Like 7 And (STORE_HX4.nDIST) Not Like 7.5 And (STORE_HX4.nDIST) Not Like 9 And (STORE_HX4.nDIST) Not Like 3) AND ((STORE_HX4.nVI)>21 And (STORE_HX4.nVI)<40) AND ((STORE_HX4.nFLD)>6 And (STORE_HX4.nFLD)<12) AND ((STORE_HX4.nTRN)>79 And (STORE_HX4.nTRN)<425) AND ((STORE_HX4.nJKY)>124 And (STORE_HX4.nJKY)<356) AND ((STORE_HX4.tDATE)>Date()-366) AND ((STORE_HX4.rPED)=1) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLONG)=2) AND ((STORE_HX4.nCLA)=2 Or (STORE_HX4.nCLA) Like 4) AND ((STORE_HX4.nSURF)<>2) AND ((STORE_HX4.nCOURSE)<>3) AND ((STORE_HX4.nPED)>319) AND ((STORE_HX4.nLFST)<>1))

[Rick]

The last entry. I need to test it against my database for top place in the contest.

Much easier if you send it to me instead of me having to build it from scratch.

Which tables are you using? HX4 and HX5?

[Rick]

Or both.

Whichever is in the lead right now.

[km]

MikeDee's query as tested by Rick =

95% return (ROI = 1.95) / 835 plays / 16% winners

56,570 races in the database Feb 06 - Jan 07

Wins 134
Plays 835
Win% 16%
aMut $24.30
$ROI 1.95
HI $106.00

[Rick]

DanG,

That doesn't look like the last one Ken ran. Was that one better?

I am going to run it now.

[Rick]

DanG,
Why did you eliminate the code that produced ROI?

I want the SQL view of your query so I can just copy and paste and run it.

It should include xFIN and xWIN. It could also include xPLA and xSHO.

[njcurveball]

2.12!!!! That is a rich neighborhood you live in! Congrats Dan!

Ken,

How did my Maiden query do? Thanks again for the contest.


Jim

[Rick]

DanG,

The SQL view of the query you posted will not open in Access as posted.

Just open your query in design, change to SQL view and copy and paste.

Thanks

[DanG]

DanG,

The SQL view of the query you posted will not open in Access as posted.

Just open your query in design, change to SQL view and copy and paste.

Thanks

Rick, please check your e-mail in a minute or two.

[km]

Contest is not official by any means.

Rick and I are still running final submissions by Mark, Dan and NJ. We are going slow to verify that we have accurate results and then a clear winner.

BTW MikeDee, that was an incredible web of a query! - when if first looked at it i didn't think it could get 600 plays - good try, awesome ROI to double the money.

[km]

Mark #6, +92% (good try Mark!)

ROI = 1.92 / 608 plays / 13% wins

Clm 00608 00081 13% 24% 36% 1.92 1.29 1.13 $28.8 0050 $122 1.19

Mark #6

MLO 8.0 - 20.0

Clm NO State-Bred
3yr 3up 4up Male

Purse ALL
Vi 10-37

PL-4

5.5-9.5
DirtFast Artif iDirt

K1-K9

HTR= 1 or 2
RS= E, P, S, R

EPR = 080-099
(K) =069-103
TRN = 060- 250
JKY = 080-250
PED = 350-990

NOT FIG2 = 1
NOT JKY = 1 or 2
NOT "bo"
NOT JT> 30
NOT Beat Fav

[km]

DanG's GRAND FINALE play.

I let Rick run this one since it was complex without Access, but also i didn't need to run it while Dan still had the lead with his previous play, so i was going to wait, but thanks Rick for taking care of it.

DanG # 4 tested by Ricks gets 129% profit - are there any superlatives left !? wow

Plays = 642
Win% = 21%
ROI = 2.29

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
rPED =1 • Edge in the ‘gene pool
nPED >=320 • Worth some money
rHTR <5 • Automatically includes at least 70% of the winners
nK >65.49 • *Excludes the poor souls who should pull wagons
nLONG =2, $$ • Ken’s tweak to this longshot rating is powerful!!!
rVEL <10 • Ensures at least a little gas in the tank.
nPDIF <13 • * See the wagon pullers.
rIMP1 <10 • Within distance limitations I LOVE the impact ratings
rIMP3 <9 • Need the horse to demonstrate a little “resistance”
rIMP4 <10 • Includes a more balanced attackPeople:

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
nTRN >=80 and <=425 • Excludes incompetence and the ones with a siren on the bridle.
nJKY >=125 and <=355 • Excludes the ones who can’t stay on and Russell “the muscle”Form:

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
nLWINF <1 • The public will always love a good last race.
nWMAR <=1 • The public will always love a horse that wins by a large margin.
nLFIN <12 • Trying to reduce “bogeys” where they at least finished,
nLPOS1 <12 • Trying to reduce “bogeys” where they at least tried early.
nLFST <>1 • No 2TSRace Composition:

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
nCLA 2 or like 4 • Ran for a tag, Claiming or MCL
nFLD >6 and <12 • Impacts a few No Cal races and a few wild CNL and LRL MCL.
nVI >21 and <40 • Trying to avoid the inscrutable and Bernardini in a walk over.
nQT3 >6 and <24 • This and Q5 are very underrated ratings
nFTS <4 • Trying to reduce Chaos
nRUNKS <6 • Trying to reduce Chaos…again.
nCHAOS =0 • REALLY trying to reduce Chaos
nTAN <3 • Love when horses meet for the first time, confuses the public.Distance: (I know the robot allows certain dist structures. Not sure if this is written correctly, but here it goes.

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
<>6.5 • Those 4 excluded and “NO” <3.5f to exclude the early MCL and bush sprints.
<>7
<>7.5
<>9Recentcy:

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
nLAY <600 • Within the millennium
nLAY90 <>2 • 2nd off layoff does surprising poorly in MANY circumstances.Trk Specific: we can’t be track specifics per-say, but these variables address a circuit somewhat.

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
nCLM >3 • Cuts out many minor tracks who run for as low as 1k
nPURS <44 • Claming stakes or maybe inflated state bred pots.
nSURF <>2 • Bye Bye to my favorite surface.
nCOURSE <>3 • Bye Bye to the Inner track.Horse:

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
nLFWP <35 • Too many bells and whistles go off with these “win types”
nLWINS <8 • Too many bells and whistles go off with these “win types”
nHAG <8 • I was always taught to respect my elders, but not always with horses.
nCHG <>2 • Blinkers On rears its statistically ugly head again!Position:

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
nPP <11 • Gate is not positioned in the parking lot.
nQPC <46 • Does not have a huge obvious QP advantage.
nGATEBRK <>1 • Did NOT break like a jack-rabbit in their last alerting the public.Details:

Code:
Rating: Range: Description:
rMLO >1 • Self explanatory and in most spot plays
nClassFit <2 • No Class fit minus or “3” which is not defined yet, but with upside.
nWGTCH <10 • Jockey did not over-indulge during Thanksgiving
nFPSX <>2 • Not the dominate FR2 # which can be horses who lose contact early
nCLCH >= (-10) • These are horses for a tag, trying to avoid the bad” For Sale Signs”.
nTOPSHFAGO <535 • Let’s give them a year and a half to run their best number.
nFC <>65 • So often a “dead zone”
rCLASS <9 • Much rather be ranked “0” than at the bottom.
nWKSC <=88 • All running for a tag, maybe it’s not best to explode in the AM?

[km]

I have two plays left to run

Mark #7
NJ's Final (Mcl) Play

and then we'll huddle and declare the winner

[km]

Mark #7 Play +72%

ALL 00743 00097 13% 23% 34% 1.72 1.19 1.06 $26.4 0051 $122 1.20

It is the same spot play as Mark # 6 listed above except that he restricted it Field size 7-14 and took out the exclusion for beaten favorites.

Congrats to Mark for an outstanding contest - all of his plays were designed using the Robot and Learn All. Simple stuff with basic parameters, and of course the old reliable HTR=1,2.

BTW: had Mark used the 'NO @' (horses that finished > 20 lengths back in their last) he would have come very close to winning. Notice that DanG also used that one in his previous play to up his ROI > 2.00.

In the next Robot, i'll change the '@' item, to 'NO @' !!

[km]

Rick ran NJ's final play and got the following results. The win% was below the minimum needed to qualify. I tested it myself and did not get 600 plays, so i must have missed an item and will try again line by line. Contest still unofficial.

plays 869
Wins 83
Win% 10%
ROI 2.13

This is a very clever play utilizing Chaos and Mcl races with FT's, great idea NJ!

ncla = 4
AND NPURS > 5
AND NDIST > 5.5
AND NDIST < 9
and nsex = 1
and nsurf <> 3
and nvi > 26 and nvi < 41
and nchaos = 0
and nwksc > 65.99
and nFTI > 29 AND nFTI < 60
and nmlo > 5 and nmlo < 30
and nmlo <> 10
AND NLFIN <> 2
AND NLFIN <> 3
AND NLFIN <> 4
AND NWGTCH < 6
AND NTRN > 79
AND NQP < 5
AND NLFST <> 3
AND NLAY < 140

[MikeDee]

In Dan's modification to his spot play No 3

NO @ (eliminate any horse with last finish>= 20 lengths back last time)

Is there a all_hx4 equivalent to this one?

[Rick]

112 "nABLF" Beaten Lengths at the finish.
0 = winner
99 = DNF, lame, pulled up, etc
-1 = no chart found for this horse or race


nABLF < 20

[MikeDee]

Rick,

I don't think this is it because this comes from the charts after the race and is unavailable prior to the race

[Rick]

Guess that means using HX5.

Looks like I will need to rerun this one.

[Rick]

Jim,

Your query in SQL view.

SELECT ALL_HX4.tTRK, ALL_HX4.tDATE, ALL_HX4.nRACE, ALL_HX4.tPGM, ALL_HX4.nSEX, ALL_HX4.nMLO, ALL_HX4.nDIST, ALL_HX4.nCLA, ALL_HX4.nPURS, ALL_HX4.nSURF, ALL_HX4.nVI, ALL_HX4.nCHAOS, ALL_HX4.nWKSC, ALL_HX4.nFTI, ALL_HX4.nLFIN, ALL_HX4.nWgtCh, ALL_HX4.nTRN, ALL_HX4.nQP, ALL_HX4.nLFST, ALL_HX4.nLAY, ALL_HX4.xFIN, ALL_HX4.xWIN, ALL_HX4.xPLA, ALL_HX4.xSHO
FROM ALL_HX4
WHERE (((ALL_HX4.nSEX)=1) AND ((ALL_HX4.nMLO)>5 And (ALL_HX4.nMLO)<30 And (ALL_HX4.nMLO)<>10) AND ((ALL_HX4.nDIST)>5.5 And (ALL_HX4.nDIST)<9) AND ((ALL_HX4.nCLA)=4) AND ((ALL_HX4.nPURS)>5) AND ((ALL_HX4.nSURF)<>3) AND ((ALL_HX4.nVI)>26 And (ALL_HX4.nVI)<41) AND ((ALL_HX4.nCHAOS)=0) AND ((ALL_HX4.nWKSC)>65.99) AND ((ALL_HX4.nFTI)>29 And (ALL_HX4.nFTI)<60) AND ((ALL_HX4.nLFIN)<>2 And (ALL_HX4.nLFIN)<>3 And (ALL_HX4.nLFIN)<>4) AND ((ALL_HX4.nWgtCh)<6) AND ((ALL_HX4.nTRN)>79) AND ((ALL_HX4.nQP)<5) AND ((ALL_HX4.nLFST)<>3) AND ((ALL_HX4.nLAY)<140));

Is that what you meant by the code?

[MikeDee]

no need to re-run on my account unless Dan gets beat in the final analysis somewhere.

I couldn't find it in hx4 and I wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. You can get it out of hx5 like your mentioned Rick.

[Rick]

Thanks Mike.

I reran using the HX5 field.

Was there one other using the same criteria?

[MikeDee]

I don't think so. Ken mentioned that if Mark 7 would have added the:
NO @ (eliminate any horse with last finish>= 20 lengths back last time) then he would have come very close.

[DanG]

no need to re-run on my account unless Dan gets beat in the final analysis somewhere.

I couldn't find it in hx4 and I wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. You can get it out of hx5 like your mentioned Rick.
1st…

I felt like that Bowl game in Vegas years ago when a guy drove into a pole and knocked the power out to the stadium. 5 hours no power after a guy takes a poll out down the street here last night. New handicapping expense created…= Generator! :)

BTW: The running joke down the strip at that time was its someone stuck large on the wrong side and it was his only out! :eek:

Mike…

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I start all plays on the Robot and then go to Access. 90% of the plays I started didn’t fair well with the “@ Bogeys”, so I threw three additional conditions on play #3, hoping it would improve it. (No @, no MCL and I forget the other one at the moment.)

It could have easily taken out a random bomb or knocked the play count too low, but I wasn’t concerned because I was just finishing play #4 that was already higher in every measurement.

Your right…It’s not available in HX4, though several people tried to simulate it with LFIN.

Didn’t occur to me at the time it would be an issue, but I should have left it out, your right.

[Rick]

DanG,

It's not an issue.

The issue was that I was using the wrong field to run your spot play.

That is a case of operator head-spacing.

[MikeDee]

Dan It's not an issue in access either, because you can duplicate it by joining HX4 and hx5 and using hx5 field nFNBL1 <20.

No reason to leave it out, it's a valid exported field.

Since you used it I thought it might be in hx4 and I couldn't find it and I was looking for the easy way.

As an aside joining hx5 to hx4 brings up a whole other panacea of spot play possibilities....but that's for a future spot play contest:D

[njcurveball]

Rick,

What you put here looks good. I do not use Access, but it looks like it matches. I think any way you slice it we are staring at Dan's Hind Quarters. :eek:

Looks like Dan may break his contest Maiden here and go on to the Breeders Cup. Congrats Dan! Your plays were Masterful!


Jim

[DanG]

Dan It's not an issue in access either, because you can duplicate it by joining HX4 and hx5 and using hx5 field nFNBL1 <20.

No reason to leave it out, it's a valid exported field.

Since you used it I thought it might be in hx4 and I couldn't find it and I was looking for the easy way.

As an aside joining hx5 to hx4 brings up a whole other panacea of spot play possibilities....but that's for a future spot play contest:D
Right Mike, I didn’t word that correctly. I meant to say HX4 and not Access.

To think last year I exported almost every table completely. Including ALL FIVE PACELINES!!! (Could have really driven poor Ken and rick nuts last year! :eek: )

It didn’t yield anything really significant using all 5 pacelines, so I went back to paceline 5 only and I’m glad I did.

BTW: Exporting all 5 pacelines did yield one powerful stat, but it doesn’t come up often. When all 5 paceline methods pick a different line those horses win FAR less than their share of races. (By different line I mean the one that is pulled into HX7 when multiple lines are selected.)

Seems when it’s that confusing to get a proper paceline selected the statistical stars become misaligned! :confused:

[DanG]

Rick,
What you put here looks good. I do not use Access, but it looks like it matches. I think any way you slice it we are staring at Dan's Hind Quarters. :eek:
Looks like Dan may break his contest Maiden here and go on to the Breeders Cup. Congrats Dan! Your plays were Masterful!
Jim

Jim…

Thanks, but no congratulations are allowed until we all return from the spit box! :D

Jim, you say you don’t use Access, but I think you said you use “Oracle”. I’m ignorant with Oracle, is it a DB application, or an entire operating system base app?

[DanG]

Sidebar on slight discrepancies in data some HTR members might see in creating and / or verifying plays.

If the trk “OTC” is in your DB all win prices will be $0.00 because of course the Ocala Training Center it’s a non-betting meet. (About 50 horses per year will be effected. You may also get the rare oddball in there like “MD” or whatever.)


If you’re like me while entering your 2nd year with HTR… became lazy and did not re-export all data after the year end update Ken does. Then the results might not exactly jive with someone who did re-export.

The Long…$, $$ longshot flags are the most significant potential discrepancies. I think it was Mike Dee that noticed this early on.

(BTW: the longshot flags are improved in the new version! I recommend spending the time to re-export if you haven’t already. :) )

[njcurveball]

Dan,

I am thinking I will request Ken freeze your spit for 10 years till we have the technology to figure out the designer stuff you used. :D

You can google enough Oracle to keep you busy until the Devil Rays win (Like how I worked that in.) ;-)

Oracle is a multi-billion dollar company with an owner, Larry Ellison who is a Billionaire. They have an entire range of products. I have a Personal Oracle database on my Laptop. It is like Roger Clemens compared to Access which is like a Pee Wee kid.

I also use Oracle tools like SQL Plus, Developer, Reports, Toad, etc. I would love to have a group of people using them, since my time seems so minimal and the power they have is unbelievable.

Funny thing is that I cannot think of one person I work with who even considers the money you can make in this game. They have some incredible skills and with the right data, it can be very profitable.

Perhaps that is a good thing for us. I would say I counted a dozen or so laptops in New Haven during the tourney. Since they had 275 entries, that means Computer Handicapping is still a BIG edge.

Jim

[DanG]

You can google enough Oracle to keep you busy until the Devil Rays win (Like how I worked that in.) ;-)
Jim
Thanks Jim…

Ouch!!! That comment would have hurt if it wasn’t so true!!! :D

Sounds like you could start your own Bill Benter, Hong Kong computer syndicate right there in the Garden state!

I know there’s a whole new level to DB’s as you described. I remember years back when I first started learning Access I thought I was real slick. I showed a real programmer (like yourself) a report and the guy looked at me the way the Yankees look at the D-rays. :eek:

As you said…Incredible minds and applications out there, but in your hands (a real horse player) these tools are MUCH more effective than someone who can only crunch data.

When I was deciding on which one of HDW’s software developers to go with, the final tipping point came because first and foremost, Ken is a top horse player.

Thanks again for the Oracle 411…

[km]

I have tried to program NJ's last play a million ways from Sunday and get minor discrepencies with Rick in the plays and ROI (mine averages 2.07). Each time i run it and tweak one of the elimination items (see below), i get a slightly different outcome. But one thing that is consistent is the win%, always below 10%.

So I'm going to conclude that his final play would either not be eligible due to low win% or would not beat DanG's ROI anway. NJ, if you have a different result, and want to call an inquiry, please post it here, we will go over it again.

SO - DanG is the apparent WINNER!
Congrats Dan!!

Example of data field that caused me problems programming export critieria: NJ used nQP < 5 in his play. The zero (QP=0) is a valid Quirin Point assignment , so internally, (-1) is used for blanks, such as FTS. When i coded this filter to run the test, I used QP 0-4 as the criteria, which is correct for horses that have QP assigned, but it eliminates the (-1) horses. NJ's play uses the (-1) horses in his outcome. FTS are valid in this spot play. That's the sort of situation that caused me some head scratching with my own data! BTW: without the (-1) horses, the play will not make 600 samples.

It gets even trickier in the case of nWGTCH < 6 in his play. The export has a filter that assigns a zero to a FTS for this field, so it does not eliminate a FTS. When i programmed this filter the first time, i eliminated the FTS because my coded filter required a previous start to get a weight change! On and on....

AWOL is right - next Contest: to preserve my sanity = 100% ROBOT!

[njcurveball]

Ken,

You get only thanks from me and admiration for all the other people who shared. I think we all learned the equivalent of much more than $500! I sure did, as I gained new found confidence in the VI and FTI numbers.

I would suggest making the VI a range like some of the other things in the robot. And I think having the horses last finish or at least a check box for "in the money" would do amazing things for some plays.

I reinforced my view that once you get over 20% winners, the ROI starts taking a hit. I think a low ROI is fine if you have a rebate. One of the (many) eye openers was that if you took ALL of the EP=1 horses that had the $$ designation, you broke even. But that was in almost 5,000 plays!

Add a 7% rebate to that and you have a comfortable income with some wiggle room. Simple math says that $5,000 at $20 per play is $100,000 through the windows and a $7,000 rebate check.

I am working toward coming to the Seminar this year and meeting all of the faces behind the names on here. There are lots of great minds and even better great people to meet there.

Thanks again for the contest! And my biggest congrats to Dan!

Jim

[DanG]

I am working toward coming to the Seminar this year and meeting all of the faces behind the names on here. There are lots of great minds and even better great people to meet there.
Jim
There we go!!!

If a freshman at the University of Florida is reading this, do you see why I need to go KAT?...

Furthermore…Thank Mr. Massa when your next birthday arrives. :)

Jim, you’re pure and simple a class act.

[Donnie]

Kat--
You're in college now! It's time to stop trying to be so controlling. You need to let go. Or at least let Dad go. Go to Vegas in July, that is!! :D

I don't know tho.....getting you and Jim in the same room, Dan, will probably lead to a LOT of Baseball talk! Now if the room happens to be the tournament room at the Gold Coast, well, fine, go right ahead! Talk Baseball all you want.

Would be wonderful to meet the both of you. Hope you both can make it this year! If you live in an area serviced by Allegiant airlines they have a Friend Flies Free deal going on right now! Here is the link if anyone is interested....

http://www.allegiantair.com/aaLanding_20070305_flyfree.php

Looks like a good deal if you have a friend or a mate to take with you!

[DanG]

Kat--
You're in college now! It's time to stop trying to be so controlling. You need to let go. Or at least let Dad go. Go to Vegas in July, that is!! :D

I don't know tho.....getting you and Jim in the same room, Dan, will probably lead to a LOT of Baseball talk! Now if the room happens to be the tournament room at the Gold Coast, well, fine, go right ahead! Talk Baseball all you want.

See!!!

KAT…You listen to your uncle Donnie…LOL… :D

Donnie, believe me its more me than her. She is as mature as any freshman you would ever meet. I love being part of her life a lot more than she really needs me to be. She’s just a great person, but I do admit extreme prejudice.

Ditto Donnie…Beyond the learning at the seminar, just meeting everyone and putting a face with the name would be fantastic. I can’t promise Jim and I not carrying on about baseball. It’s as part of our souls as racing and that’s saying a lot!!! :)

[tomcat]

Ken, you said you tweaked Dan's final winning spot....what is Dan's final spot? Or is it the last one posted?

[njcurveball]

Donnie,

Thanks for posting this link.

http://www.allegiantair.com/aaLandin...05_flyfree.php

It is a great deal, even tempts me to make the trip to Allentown. Wish it were closer! I am trying to find a flight that gets me there before 10 pm (waste of a day) and gets me home on the same day, most flights run during the wee hours with long layovers. Not as easy as it looks coming from the Atlantic City.


Jim

[km]

Tomcat - below is Dan's spot play that got 2.12 ROI that i tested, the last 3 items are the 'tweaks' he added to get the ROI past 2.00. This play was enought to win the contest at the time. Rick tested another one of his in Access later that got a higher ROI.

PED=1
$ and $$
Males
MLO rank > 1
MLO<>15
FLDSIZE >5 and <12
DIST> 5.5f and <> 7
nLDIST <11
nDS <>5
nQP >1 and <8
nQT3 <24
nQFIVES <8
nRS <>4
nLFST >5
nEPR >97 and <111
nK >68.49
nHAG <9
nCHG <4
nFPSX <>3
rHTR <>5
nWGTCH >-10 and <8
nLFIN >0 and <10
nTJ <=35
nJKY >90 and <415
nCLCH >-15 and <15
nPDIF <11
rFR2 >0 and <10
rFR1 : >0
nTOPPACAGO >5 and <800
nTOPPERAGO >5 and <800

NO Mcl
Purse >= 10k
NO @ (eliminate any horse nBLF1 >= 20)

[Donnie]

Jim-
$390 roundtrip with your stipulations.....depart 2:50 arrive 7:47 on Tues. Depart 7:00AM arrive home 5:00PM Sunday!

Here is the link!

http://travel.travelocity.com/trips/MartiniFlightsCrossSell.do?leg=0&targetLegIndex=1&breadcrumbStart=1&sortOrder=TOTAL_FARE_ASCENDING&recordNo=0&dispNewTimeStamp=&pathIndicatorCode=KIA&flightPath=TF&keyid=A14832C399C5C0C2557F8B231EADF18F.p0453&travelPackageId=311646103&Service=TRAVELOCITY

[Donnie]

oops...the link doesn't work....
go to travelocity and punch in Atalantic City to Vegas depart NJ on Tues, return on Sun....

[njcurveball]

You read my mind Donnie. The only hard pill to swallow is getting up at 4 am to leave Vegas. I guess in that case, I might as well stay up. ;-)

Good job! You can be my Travel Agent anytime!

Jim

[Donnie]

NJ--
I arrive at 10AM Tues morn...can't check in till 2 or 3, and fly out at midnight Monday night, so I gotta check my bag in with the bellhop at the hotel and find some place to play until my flight leaves....wanted to try an overnight flight to see if I can get a couple hours sleep. First time I am attempting this overnight flying stuff! The Coast normally gives the tournament players a discount on their rooms...however you can add it to your Travelocity reservations if you want. Ken...what is normally the discount they offer?