HTR=1 & JKY=1 Angle Seasonal?

[AlanLN]

Anyone:
Don't remember how long ago I saw this, a couple of months or so. Think it was a post by Ken. The conditions and filters were:

no Mdn or Mcl
Sprints
purse > 10k
Tote 8-1 and up
HTR=1 and JKY=1

Kens post and my own robot test showed Win ROI somewhere around 1.15 to 1.25 over the past year with about 1 to 3 plays a day. And the angle started out doing well, but not as of late. My stats for the last 4 Novembers are listed below. Could this be a seasonal thing, or just too small a sample to mean anything? Or perhaps I changed some of the filtered items? Had to cut out some of the Robots report as it was too long to post.

Last 4 Novembers, 2003-2006. 94 plays, 5 winners (5.3%), WROI = 0.57

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 12/03/2006
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 00028 00000 00% 07% 14% 0.00 0.37 0.79 0000 $0 0.00


K110+ 00000
HF 00000

Favorites 00000
Trn=1 00006 00000 00% 00% 17% 0.00 0.00 2.11 0000 $0 0.00
Trn400+ 00002 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0000 $0 0.00

Jky=1 00028 00000 00% 07% 14% 0.00 0.37 0.79 0000 $0 0.00
Jky350+ 00016 00000 00% 06% 13% 0.00 0.44 0.41 0000 $0 0.00

HTR=1 00028 00000 00% 07% 14% 0.00 0.37 0.79 0000 $0 0.00
HTR=2 00000

$ 00011 00000 00% 00% 18% 0.00 0.00 1.37 0000 $0 0.00
$$ 00012 00000 00% 17% 17% 0.00 0.87 0.58 0000 $0 0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Races Tested: 1162 01Nov06 - 30Nov06 Tote 8.0-99.0

Type: Stk Alw Clm
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5

Dist: 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
Surf: ALL

Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9

TRKS: ALL

Rank Filters: JKY=1 HTR=1
Item Filters:

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 12/03/2006
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 00018 00000 00% 22% 33% 0.00 1.11 0.94 0000 $0 0.00


K110+ 00000
HF 00000

Favorites 00000
Trn=1 00005 00000 00% 40% 40% 0.00 2.35 1.68 0000 $0 0.00
Trn400+ 00004 00000 00% 50% 50% 0.00 2.94 2.10 0000 $0 0.00

Jky=1 00018 00000 00% 22% 33% 0.00 1.11 0.94 0000 $0 0.00
Jky350+ 00007 00000 00% 14% 29% 0.00 0.54 0.61 0000 $0 0.00

HTR=1 00018 00000 00% 22% 33% 0.00 1.11 0.94 0000 $0 0.00
HTR=2 00000

$ 00010 00000 00% 10% 20% 0.00 0.44 0.54 0000 $0 0.00
$$ 00006 00000 00% 33% 33% 0.00 1.96 1.40 0000 $0 0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Races Tested: 1074 01Nov05 - 30Nov05 Tote 8.0-99.0

Type: Stk Alw Clm
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5

Dist: 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
Surf: ALL

Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9

TRKS: ALL

Rank Filters: JKY=1 HTR=1
Item Filters:

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 12/03/2006
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 00025 00001 04% 08% 20% 0.50 0.48 0.70 $24.8 0001 $25 0.34

K=1 00000
K=2 00005 00000 00% 20% 40% 0.00 1.40 1.06 0000 $0 0.00
K=3 00003 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0000 $0 0.00
K=4 00005 00000 00% 00% 20% 0.00 0.00 0.62 0000 $0 0.00
K=5 00004 00000 00% 00% 25% 0.00 0.00 1.25 0000 $0 0.00
K=6 00004 00001 25% 25% 25% 3.10 1.23 1.05 $24.8 0001 $25 1.69


K110+ 00000
HF 00000

Favorites 00000
Trn=1 00005 00001 20% 20% 20% 2.48 0.98 0.84 $24.8 0001 $25 1.84
Trn400+ 00000

Jky=1 00025 00001 04% 08% 20% 0.50 0.48 0.70 $24.8 0001 $25 0.34
Jky350+ 00008 00000 00% 00% 13% 0.00 0.00 0.63 0000 $0 0.00

HTR=1 00025 00001 04% 08% 20% 0.50 0.48 0.70 $24.8 0001 $25 0.34
HTR=2 00000

$ 00011 00000 00% 09% 18% 0.00 0.64 0.55 0000 $0 0.00
$$ 00011 00001 09% 09% 09% 1.13 0.45 0.38 $24.8 0001 $25 0.73
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Races Tested: 1191 01Nov04 - 30Nov04 Tote 8.0-99.0

Type: Stk Alw Clm
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5

Dist: 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
Surf: ALL

Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9

TRKS: ALL

Rank Filters: JKY=1 HTR=1
Item Filters:

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 12/03/2006
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 00023 00004 17% 26% 35% 1.79 1.45 1.04 $20.6 0002 $23 1.54

K=1 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0000 $0 0.00
K=2 00001 00000 00% 00% 100 0.00 0.00 3.80 0000 $0 0.00
K=3 00002 00001 50% 50% 50% 5.85 2.75 1.40 $23.4 0001 $23 3.75
K=4 00003 00001 33% 33% 33% 3.33 1.60 0.90 $20.0 0001 $20 3.22
K=5 00008 00000 00% 25% 25% 0.00 1.74 1.01 0000 $0 0.00
K=6 00001 00001 100 100 100 9.50 3.80 1.80 $19.0 0000 $19 7.00
K=7 00004 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0000 $0 0.00
K=8 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0000 $0 0.00
K=9 00002 00001 50% 50% 100 4.95 2.65 2.40 $19.8 0000 $20 4.75

K110+ 00000
HF 00000

Favorites 00000
Trn=1 00005 00001 20% 20% 20% 2.34 1.10 0.56 $23.4 0001 $23 1.64
Trn400+ 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0000 $0 0.00

Jky=1 00023 00004 17% 26% 35% 1.79 1.45 1.04 $20.6 0002 $23 1.54
Jky350+ 00009 00000 00% 11% 11% 0.00 0.99 0.59 0000 $0 0.00

HTR=1 00023 00004 17% 26% 35% 1.79 1.45 1.04 $20.6 0002 $23 1.54
HTR=2 00000

$ 00014 00003 21% 36% 43% 2.10 1.99 1.24 $19.6 0001 $20 1.90
$$ 00007 00001 14% 14% 29% 1.67 0.79 0.94 $23.4 0001 $23 1.33
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Races Tested: 1156 01Nov03 - 30Nov03 Tote 8.0-99.0

Type: Stk Alw Clm
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5

Dist: 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
Surf: ALL

Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9

TRKS: ALL

Rank Filters: JKY=1 HTR=1
Item Filters:

[km]

Fascinating the spikes of fortune and loss with longshots Alan.

Anytime you are dealing with a win rate < 10%, the ROI cycles are going to be highly volatile for any random period tested. Feast or famine. Even one bomb in the sequence you listed might have lifted the ROI to profitability. Also, remember that longshots above 10/1 will Place and Show twice as often as they Win, so keep an eye on the Place and Show ROI during a slump, if they are strong then the play is probably still "live" but couldn't quite put one over, but will eventually - hopefully before you go broke!

[AlanLN]

Thanks Ken,
What you wrote was kinda what I was thinking. Just ran the Robot with the time frame Nov 1, 2005 to Nov 1, 2006 with the following results:

280 plays-30 wins(11%),W+P(19%), ITM(32%),WROI=1.43,PROI=0.97,SROI=1.00 High=$62

so betting $560 returning about $800. Missing a couple of those $60 horses or just catching a long losing streak would reduce the return significantly.

[hurrikane]

Nice info Alan,
the big problem I have for these is the win %. My luck would be to miss the one big one that made it profitable.

I have noticed the ev ep does not do as well in the winter for some reason. May be horses shipping to warmer tracks that don't play well with ev

If the HTR-1 number is based in ev - ep it will drop during this time I suspect.

[AlanLN]

hurrikane:
Your right, with the win % around 10-12% it would be my luck also in missing the the big one. I went thru the last 3 years month by month (missing March/April 2005) with the Robot and found 13 losing months. Doesn't appear to be just a seasonal thing, probably just the low win %/ low number of plays. Anywhere from 10 to 38 plays per month with 0 to 6 winners.

You wrote:
"I have noticed the ev ep does not do as well in the winter for some reason. May be horses shipping to warmer tracks that don't play well with ev."
I hadn't thought about any other factors yet. I'll have to take a look at that. Thanks.

[tbrown]

Could you overcome this seasonal thing by only looking at warm weather tracks?
Might a subset of good results exist at Polywood, or SA, or BM?