HTR & Hollywood = $$$

[DanG]

Hollywood 11/1/2006 – 11/19/2006

Many HTR ratings are providing great separation. Just focusing on some HTR “people” ratings…Trn, Jky & the excellent new TPG rating. (TPG + & - were grouped as one)

Cushion… (Positive):)

• TPG = “B” (ROI…$1.27, 21% w/ties)
• rTRN =1, 2 (ROI…$1.35. 23%)
• rJKY =1 (ROI…$1.23. 24%)

Cushion… (Negative):(

• TPG = “F”,... 1 / 75 (A $7.20 winner good for a cheese sandwich)
• TPG = “N”,... 0 / 29
• rTRN > 6,... 6 / 210 (ROI…$0.34. 3%)
• rJKY >7,... 7 / 139 (ROI…$0.76. 5%...[$116.00 bomb])
• PS…(“Pac-Tops” at routes are 0-18 so far.)

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Turf… (Positive):)

• TPG = “B” (ROI…$1.30, 20% wins w/ties)
• rTRN =1, 2 (ROI…$1.59. 25%)

Turf… (Negative):(

• TPG = “D” or “F”,... 1 / 61 (A $5.60 winner for 12oz. draft…minus the tip)
• rTRN > 6,... 2 / 57 (ROI…$0.16. 4%)

Oustanding work Ken. You have converted me to the “365 day cycle”, constantly moving forward way of thinking. I was of the opinion that 90 years of data always trumped 90 days…WRONG…

[Zaf]

Thanks Dan, appreciate the info. I have been treading lightly at HOL so far.

[Huguenot]

Dan, nice stuff.

Would you think that a "moving average" type of profile would work well so that you could actually see as the trends turn north and south and for how long?

[DanG]

Would you think that a "moving average" type of profile would work well so that you could actually see as the trends turn north and south and for how long?

Hug,

Yes, but not in individual snapshots.

I’m more a believer in seasonal variations and specific meets demanding certain stock and conditioners.

The fact that Johnny Poke is 10 / 50 with b-off and 4 for his last 6…I’m not sure what to do with that.

The fact that Don Rice “throws away” his horses first 1 - 3 starts at Tampa Bay Downs as public workouts, then suddenly goes berserk most years…That gets me interested.

Certain meets… (So Cal most meets comes to mind) feature a small band of trainers and riders who lock down the turf course for example. When Gulfstream comes up check some of the riders records on the weeds. I guarantee that 10 separate riders when combined will sum to 2 for 179 for $0.13 cents.

On a side note…My brother spent months graphing individual trainers and riders. It yielded squat as it was near impossible to know when to jump in and many trainer stats are common currency now.

I think our time is much better spent on the animal and then consulting Ken’s trainer ratings and TPG for competence or lack thereof. Not the other way around. If you want to specialize in trainer maneuvers I think you need to jump in with both feet and commit serious time to it. A superficial method won’t produce enough profits to warrant your investment.

BTW: This is obviously just my preference. I know someone well who makes a decent living using only uses trainer moves and track bias. Fortunately there are several ways to skin this game if you’re willing to commit the time.

[njcurveball]

Dan,

You have made great points above and I look forward to reading your posts. I wanted to include the following more for people who are not as educated as you are.

There are basically 3 types of trainer "moves". Probably a few other slices as well. The first and most profitable (IMHO) is the owner move. This comes with first time starters, first off claim, and "voluntary" trainer change.

Think of this as the Steinbrenner angle. Some of these guys have big money and want instant gratification. In my experience, guys like 505 Farms and Glenn Lane were money in the bank.

Another one that comes to mind is Frank Stronach, although he has gotten a little too big for ALL consideration.

Now that we have the owner in our data, it is easier to track this. A long time ago I published a Newsletter with Owner standings for NJ tracks. Back then a guy named Steve Klesaris was winning 50% with his horses and still paying some prices. I think his brother was training horses for him and a few others at the time.

The least profitable move is the "blind squirrel" one. This is something like route to sprint, turf to dirt, shipper, etc. Some trainers just luck into longshot wins and it balloons thier ROI. Some are very good and they will stay good season after season. Others will be "in and out". Just because two trainers are both 5 for 12 with shippers don't count on both of them being 5 for their next 12 as well.

The 3rd and most clever is the trainer move. First time turf, first off layoff, etc. Be aware that many things are done by people other than the trainer. Perhaps the farm has a "horse whisperer" who rubs the 8 year old with special sauce every day before sending them back to the track. Or there might be a gentle rider taking the 2 year old for a spin in the grass making him enjoy it.

Horses can (and often do) outrun their pedigree when they are trained properly.

Just a few thoughts to add to your very good post above.

Jim

[DanG]

Great points Jim…except I’m not sure a New Jersey public education earns me an “educated” compliment.:D

Note on streaks…

Trainer Todd Pletcher started 0 for 31 at Churchill Downs and finished 10 for his last 24.

“Regressing to the mean” Ken calls it!;)

[tbrown]

Regressing to the BANK! :D

[delayjf]

To the extent that trainer patterns are more and more common, I wonder how many trainers (betting trainer / owners) throw in clunkers to buck the trends I.E. stiff a horse he has just claimed because he has a reputation with winning 1st time back off a claim, only to bring him back and send him in the 2nd or 3rd race.

I've seen something simular happen (or at least I thought I did) with horses with obvious bad trips that were bet down in their next start. Usually a bad race at low odds followed by a winning effort a higher odds in the second race back.:confused: