Turf to Poly

[km]

Since August 1st, 2006, there have been about 900 races on Poly or Artificial surfaces.

About 1300 of the entrants were horses that had last raced on the grass. Many horseplayers suspect that grass form will translate well to the "A" surfaces; let's see if they are right.

= Ran on Turf Last Time
= Today's race is "A" surface (HOL, WO, KEE, TP)

All Plays: 1312
Wins: 178 (14%)
ROI: 1.02

Winning ROI, lots of long prices in the "all burger" above. But locating contenders with the (K) or HTR will make a big difference --->

K=1,2 get 28% wins with ROI = 1.00 and 25%, 1.22 respectively.

High rated TRN, PED or Wk also had excellent results. And HTR=1,2 were ROI > +20% profits with over 300 plays together.

Excellent angle to keep an eye on.

[DanG]

Thanks for running the numbers Ken.

This opens up many opportunities for HTR players as its inevitable most of the country will go artificial surface.

That’s the real beauty of HTR as it’s not tied to any one dogma or theory. It adapts to reflect the game we now play.

[Mark]

Ken, those #'s and the PER=1 study you posted earlier are comforting. I bet K1's as a steady diet and have grudgingly removed poly tracks and many dirt tracks on those circuits as inscrutable vis-a-vis reliable chalk.

I'm taking this as a direction to broaden action to longer prices and, god forbid, learn Access.

[tbrown]

HX7 might prove to be useful as well.
I read a post by Lee Tomlinson over at Derby list - he has found a sire who is 10 for 32 on poly tracks. (I forget who- I'll look it up).
We have the capability to easily track sires performance on the "A" train.

[tbrown]

Here is the quote:
"I think the Frankel horse is an "interesting" play is that his sire, Hennessy, is 10 for 32 on artificial surfaces...31%."

Now that I read it again, it could mean his sire won 31% himself....not sure now.

[km]

Hennessey on "A" surface only since Aug 2006

Starts: 21
Wins: 5 (24%)
ITM: 52%
WROI: 1.19
PROI: 1.24
SROI: 1.19
High: $17

He's a hot Poly sire for sure Bulldog - lots of live runners and profits across the board.

If you have any other sires u want to test for the artificial tracks, let me know.

[dehere]

As some of you know I've had a "sire-for-course" part of my HTR handicapping reports for awhile now. Since I saw this thread i've been playing with it to introduce an addition for poly. I should have a pretty complete print-out of Sire stats on poly overall and by track within a day or so. This can be updated as time passes but I'll post what I come up with when the thing is done. I love these new ways to use HTR data.

[dehere]

I don't know where I'm going wrong in comparison with Ken's numbers but the data I have for Hennessey is a total of 15 starts on poly with a 33% win percent. That is 2 wins out of 7 starts at KEE, 1 win out of 1 start at HOL and 2 wins out of 5 starts at WO. Oh yeah, I show no wins out of 2 starts at TP.

I wonder why I have a different total than Ken. My data goes back before poly at TP.

Any ideas Ken? I have used "4" for nSURF from HX7 as my criteria for poly track. Am i missing something there?

Anyway, for what its worth, the highest overall win percent that I'm coming up with for sires with multiple starters on Poly include Unbridled Jet (50% out of 10 starts - including 4 of 9 at WO and 1 for 1 at HOL), Announce with 4 of 9 starts, Montbrook with 4 of 13 starts and Unbridled with 38%. No other sire has a higher percent than 37% and more than 4 starters.

This will be fun to watch as time goes by.

[DanG]

Good stuff Henry…

Thanks for staying after it.

PS: One idea on the “missing” 6 starts…Didn’t WO (or maybe it was TP:confused: ) have a glitch this year concerning the “Surf” field?...I think we had to we had to re-download at one point when Ken made the minor revision.

[Cliff]

Guys,

What does your research show for Running Stag?

I'm pretty sure of at least 4 wins. Not sure of how many starters.

Does anyone have the dates that synthetic came into play at the various tracks?

TIA,
Cliff

[DanG]

Guys,

What does your research show for Running Stag?

I'm pretty sure of at least 4 wins. Not sure of how many starters.

Does anyone have the dates that synthetic came into play at the various tracks?

TIA,
Cliff

Cliff…


HOL ~ 11/01/2006
KEE ~ 10/06/2006
TP ~ 09/08/2005
WO ~ 08/30/2006


PS: Running Stag… Has a double winner in “Keepmeinyourheart” who won a second time in a walkover when the field scratched down to 4.

[Cliff]

Thanks Dan.

[km]

Dehere, possible solutions to our data discrepency, but i'll re-run mine and get you a list for comparison. It's possible the error is on my end, i'll double check.

= i ran all the Hennessey on Poly, not just FT, maybe you ran First Time on Poly. The majority from him were first timers, but my stats included those that had run on it before.

= it's possible the problem Dan referred to would occur if your data was exported prior to the update that fixed the Poly issue in October. I just sent you and update to your custom version that for sure had the latest patches though. If this is the issue, re-export your entire database with the latest version.

A nice addition to the Robot in January will be adding the Sire to the "Connections" box. This will allow you to test Sire on LEARNX and find out strength and weakness in all facets.

[dehere]

Cliff,

what i show for Running Stag is pretty remarkable and maybe i have something wrong in my report that i need to check out - in any event, here it is

KEE - 2 starts 1 win
HOL - 3 starts 3 wins
WO - 45 starts 8 wins and 14 ITM
TP - 4 starts 2 wins

So overall, 54 starts and 25.93% win % (14) and 38.89% ITM (21)

[km]

Dehere
Here is the list of Hennessey starters on "A" track since August

1126B07.HOL Heza Legend
1125B03.HOL Set Alight
1125B07.WO Rare Paradis
1124B02.WO And a Bump
1105B06.WO Rare Paradis
1103B02.WO And a Bump
1102B04.HOL Belvedere Belle
1102B09.WO Maidens Prayer
1025B07.KEE Pooletta
1022B07.KEE Blotto
1021B07.WO Rare Paradis
1019B05.KEE Mary Delaney
1015B02.WO And a Bump
1014B04.KEE Cointreau
1013B02.KEE Port St. Charles
1013B07.KEE Keeneland Kid
1008B05.KEE Maui
1008B03.WO Rare Paradis
1005B08.WO Maidens Prayer
0930B10.TP Expertise
0920B09.TP Mary Delaney

[dehere]

Does anyone remember when the issues arose regarding TP or WO that Dan was referring to?

I am trying to avoid the need to reexport months of data and maybe I need to do more than that if I never got the correct surface data in the first place during the affected time period.

[dehere]

I am posting an excel file with a listing of the record for those sires whose offspring have had at least 20 starts on Poly. You will see the overall record for the offspring (on the right) as well as the record by track. That data is only up to date through November 22nd as I do not update my pedigree data more than once a week or so. Also, there may be a few entries missing because, as alluded to before, I do not have all of the data because of a short term glitch earlier this fall. Most of the missing data for Hennessey though came because my data is up to date only through November 22nd. Otherwise, I was missing only two races and both of those were at Woodbine.

Anyway, here is the stuff.

[Cliff]

Thanks dehere,

I'll follow up on him when I get some time!

[km]

I'm pretty sure it was August 30 for WO to start the Poly.

I corrected HTR2 in sept or oct to include WO, KEE and HOL. TP was ok from Sept 2005.

Does anyone know the next track likely to be re-surfaced with POLY? Perhaps DMR, but that's August 2007.

[DanG]

I'm pretty sure it was August 30 for WO to start the Poly.

I corrected HTR2 in sept or oct to include WO, KEE and HOL. TP was ok from Sept 2005.

Does anyone know the next track likely to be re-surfaced with POLY? Perhaps DMR, but that's August 2007.

Arlington starts May-4th. 2007

It’s not official yet, but they are under tremendous pressure as their last meet was a very public and deadly fiasco.

[dehere]

I have re-exported data from August through the 27th of November and have rerun my pedigree queries. It looks like things are current now as I at least get the same number of starters for Hennessey as Ken did. In that light I'm reposting the excel chart with sires with at least 20 starts on poly. Its included as an attachment here.

[DanG]

Nice work Henry!!!

Who said horseplayers don’t pull for each other…HTR certainly disproves that.

[km]

Thanks for a great set of data Henry, easy to sort right away in Excel. Smart to separate by track. That's important because if all the winners come from the same location, then it may be one or two hot horses accumulating all the data.

And best Sire on Poly IMHO......
Skip Away !

He's got multiple starters at each track, and a consistent performance averaging over 25% winners at each. Honour and Glory gets the high %s, but he was 0 for 8 at KEE and 5 of his winners came from two horses at TP.

thx again Dehere for running the numbers

[hracingplyr]

are we tlking about sires first time out on the poly or cushion?

bob

[dehere]

Bob,

The chart that I posted includes all starts on poly or cushion by offspring of the specified sire - not just first out.

Obviously, the utility of this data will increase as time passes (downside) but by then everyone will know who the "good" poly sires are (upside). By jumping on this early the opportunities for price plays increases a bunch - as does the possibility of losing tons of money playing horses based on limited data.

For example, check out AP Indy. The KEE meet is over which makes it too late to do anything at this point, but offspring of that sire went 0 for 18 on Poly at KEE (whereas, over the past four or so years, offspring of that sire won at 28% on a fast dirt track at KEE) - certainly a nice "play against" kinda stat doncha think?

[DanG]

Does anyone know the next track likely to be re-surfaced with POLY? Perhaps DMR, but that's August 2007.

Arlington is a go...05/04/2007

http://www.drf.com/news/article/81075.html