Russell Baze on Turf

[Rick]

Posted by jbshoulda
Bet against R. Baze when he rides in turf races


Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/15/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 01099 00317 29% 50% 66% 0.79 0.83 0.84 $5.5 0001 $27 1.97

Dirt Spr 00404 00131 32% 55% 72% 0.92 0.90 0.89 $5.7 0001 $27 2.21
Dirt Rte 00194 00063 32% 54% 69% 0.82 0.90 0.87 $5.1 0000 $18 2.10


Turf Spr 00052 00010 19% 38% 50% 0.56 0.73 0.66 $5.8 0000 $9 1.42
Turf Rte 00164 00031 19% 37% 54% 0.53 0.66 0.77 $5.6 0000 $15 1.46

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Races Tested: 1848 02Dec05 - 12Nov06
Type: Stk Alw Clm Msw Mcl
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse<$10k Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5
Dist: ALL
Surf: ALL
Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9
TRKS: BM BMF GG SR
Rank Filters:
Item Filters:
Baze Russell A.

[Rick]

Posted by AlanLN

KM,
Thanks for the reply. Looks like playing K=9 KLine 99-1 @ LAD during Orleans contests could be a spot play (just kidding).

John,
"Bet against R. Baze when he rides in turf races" Just bet against him when I put a bet on him. Gotta be a postive ROI there.
:(

[Rick]

Posted by TEJASKIDD

Bet against R. Baze when he rides in turf races


Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/15/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 01099 00317 29% 50% 66% 0.79 0.83 0.84 $5.5 0001 $27 1.97

Dirt Spr 00404 00131 32% 55% 72% 0.92 0.90 0.89 $5.7 0001 $27 2.21
Dirt Rte 00194 00063 32% 54% 69% 0.82 0.90 0.87 $5.1 0000 $18 2.10


Turf Spr 00052 00010 19% 38% 50% 0.56 0.73 0.66 $5.8 0000 $9 1.42
Turf Rte 00164 00031 19% 37% 54% 0.53 0.66 0.77 $5.6 0000 $15 1.46

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Races Tested: 1848 02Dec05 - 12Nov06
Type: Stk Alw Clm Msw Mcl
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse<$10k Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5
Dist: ALL
Surf: ALL
Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9
TRKS: BM BMF GG SR
Rank Filters:
Item Filters:
Baze Russell A.


I'm not familiar with what everything means here, but did you take into consideration the field sizes when you ran these queries. I'm sure that field sizes in No Cal are bigger in turf races, than in dirt races. In order for your assessment to be correct, you should consider the ROI'S of the other riders on the circuit. BAZE probably still has the highest ROI on the grass. I'm interested in knowing, if your interested in showing.

[Rick]

posted by jbshoulda

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/17/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 00107 00017 16% 32% 52% 0.53 0.67 0.83 $6.7 0000 $15 1.43

Alw/Stk 00035 00007 20% 26% 49% 0.57 0.48 0.80 $5.7 0000 $8 1.80
Clm 00051 00005 10% 31% 47% 0.41 0.72 0.76 $8.3 0000 $12 0.88
Msw 00006 00002 33% 67% 83% 0.88 1.22 1.32 $5.3 0000 $7 3.06
Mcl 00015 00003 20% 33% 67% 0.73 0.68 0.96 $7.3 0000 $15 1.77


Races Tested: 165 07Dec05 - 16Nov06

Type: Stk Alw Clm Msw Mcl
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse<$10k Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5

Dist: ALL
Surf: Turf

Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9

TRKS: BM BMF GG SR

Rank Filters:
Item Filters:

FSize:08-14 Baze Russell A.


Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/17/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 00111 00024 22% 41% 52% 0.53 0.67 0.64 $4.9 0000 $10 1.37

Alw/Stk 00049 00012 24% 41% 55% 0.66 0.66 0.68 $5.4 0000 $10 1.51
Clm 00046 00008 17% 37% 41% 0.42 0.59 0.49 $4.8 0000 $9 1.10
Msw 00008 00002 25% 63% 88% 0.53 1.00 1.08 $4.2 0000 $4 1.63
Mcl 00008 00002 25% 50% 63% 0.43 0.86 0.83 $3.4 0000 $3 1.72


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Races Tested: 154 04Dec05 - 16Nov06

Type: Stk Alw Clm Msw Mcl
AgSx: 2yr 3yr 3up 4up Fems Male
Misc: Purse<$10k Purse>=$10k Vi10-25 Vi26-32 Vi33-37 Vi38-50 PL-5

Dist: ALL
Surf: Turf

Krnk: K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 K7 K8 K9

TRKS: BM BMF GG SR

Rank Filters:
Item Filters:

FSize:03-07 Baze Russell A.

[Rick]

posted by jbshoulda

This shows the same filters but with other jockeys compared to Baze

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/17/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 00163 00032 20% 36% 49% 1.08 1.02 0.95 $11.0 0005 $54 1.59

FSize:03-14 Gonzalez Roberto M.



Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/17/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 00159 00043 27% 35% 48% 1.13 0.83 0.81 $8.3 0000 $17 2.17

FSize:03-14 Schvaneveldt Chad Phillip


Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/17/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 00217 00031 14% 29% 44% 1.16 0.87 0.91 $16.3 0008 $55 1.13


Martinez Luis V.


Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM $20+ High I.V. 11/17/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL 00218 00041 19% 37% 52% 0.53 0.67 0.73 $5.6 0000 $15 1.43

Baze Russell A.

[Rick]

posted by km

Great stats JB, clearly Baze has an achilles heel on grass - thanks.

Tejas =
IMPACT VALUE (I.V., the final column on the right) is computed with field size as its primary component. Baze has much lower Impact Values on grass as shown in his stats, so it isn't necessary to separate by the size of field as that statistic reveals him. The Robot Tester in HTR2 has an option for field size range, but separating will reduce the sample too much with just one jockey being run.

ROI is also a key stat. When Baze rides in races on grass with larger fields, his average off odds will rise, but he fails on grass at low odds much more often than dirt and so his returns are terrible.

But the point about Baze riding in short fields in NoCal to get the all time wins record (Pincay) is well taken. Pincay rode all his winners in the tougher SoCal circuit and during the peak years in 1970's and 1980's when field size averaged 9-10 horses vs. 6.5 horses at BM and GG where Baze rode all his winners against a much weaker jockey colony.

[TEJASKIDD]

Thanks for the education. Sorry about my ignorance.

[km]

You ain't no ignorant Dennis! Inquiring mind is a sure facet of a winner.

Since you are just about the hottest handicapper in the world right now, how about a few pointers for us :)