percent early tool pays off

[njcurveball]

One of the things that guys like Sartin and Brohamer used to "preach" was using percent early as a tool to see if a horse can stretch out.

In todays razzle dazzle computer world, many people do not even look at this number. So every once in a while we get a solid smack in the face on why we didn't use this tool.

Just like the toolbox we all have at home, every tool cannot be used for every task. But how bout 2 year olds going long for the first time?

We use to read the "mystical, magical" writings of Schmidt in the follow up on races like the 6th at Delaware on Saturday.

AND obviously I didn't bet it big, since I am going to work in the morning. :-(

Quick look at the Percent Early of the field from the velocity screen shows every horse in the field over 52% except #6 Eurydice (50.23) and #12 Super Natascha (50.81).

And 3rd fraction rankings have these same horses 1-2 as well. We could find lots more positives, but just with these nuggets we have two solid contenders. The crowd jumped on Eurydice at 2-1. They left Super Natascha at 25-1.

As predicted these two were 10th and 11th in the early going. And as if there is some magic in these numbers, They finished 1st and 2nd in the longest possible way.

$52.20 winner, $314.20 exacta, and a favorite strategy you should look into is using the "unknowns" in these maiden races for 3rd. Two horses didn't get ratings #8 and #13 and sure enough the 8 horse went to the lead and held 3rd for a $4092.80 trifecta.

Another curious thing was that the trainer of #12 Michael Matz wins 30% with 2nd time starters He shows a nice flat bet profit and added to it here.

We have some great tools, we just need to use them!

[km]

Nice call on that $50 winner NJ!

PPX shows a healithy positive change in the PED number from sprint to route for that winner #12 too, so he was primed for the stretchous and Matz is good with that 2TS move as you mentioned. That new FT rating for "first time route" is going to pay dividends.

Over the years we have never been a able to pin down a consistent structural approach to EE% that showed profits. In fact, despite the outcome here, the contrarian approach seems to work better in cases like this race =

The EE% will usually seem too high for most front running sprinters stretching out, yet Fr1=1 for sprint-to-route is one of the all time best HTR longshot spot plays and most of those winners have very high EE%. The power of this move has proven far more profitable than any use of low EE%, closers, Lv or Fr3 tested for dirt routes. In fact, late-running sprinters get a very poor ROI result when they route (tested in one of the newsletters awhile back).

Anyway, there is more than one to catch a big fish and i'm glad you got this one at those odds.

[Zaf]

Excellent post NJ ! Click below to read an HTR subscriber's blog on the subject of % E.

Be sure to Scroll down to read all 4 parts of this informative and well written discussion on Energy distribution during the running of a race.

Enjoy:

http://horseplayerdaily.21publish.com/nicelynicely

[Huguenot]

That would be me and I'm overdue to write Chapter 5 using actual examples. Real life just gets in the way sometimes.

[tbrown]

Come on, Hug.....you can have a life during the cold winters - we need stuff to read NOW! :D
It is the fall championship season, you know!

[Huguenot]

One of my problems is what's known in the software biz as feature creep. I just keeping doing more research when I spy something interesting.
For example, I have found a number of horses improve on the grass when their 2nd fraction improves energy-wise. (I'm using the IMPACT figs with a custom-made program Ken made for me to detect 2nd call energy.) And sprint horses move up with major spikes in first call energy.
As an example I did not have to search further than Race 1 on Belmont Sunday for Nunnery. Attached the file that I use. check out the percentages on the right side. The middle figure is for 2nd fraction (using IMPACT's ATT figure). The spike from 36% to 39% signaled improvement was coming. He won at 5-1.
Now the horse won't always win of course but more times than not you'll see a move up in his figures coming soon.
I should add horses should be coming back to the races pretty soon and things change if you're switching distances or surfaces. Also I prefer horses who are rounding into form who show the angle rather than horses who have been in form and might be at the end of their current cycle.

[delayjf]

Huguenot

Does it matter to you that Nunnery dropped his 1st fraction %?

I absolutely agree with your analysis, especially when it comes to maiden races. I've found that often Maidens have not learned to ration their speed optimally for a route race. So when you find one that indicates they can, its a definate play for me - assuming a good price. I've gotten some monsters on the turf using this method (Maidens)

I know some who have had a lot of luck with %E, BUT they treat %E as more a function of Sex/Class as opposed to a track/distance function. In other words they model by Sex/Class/distance rather than track/distance ala Brohamer.

I've always prefered % median to % Early as I think its more straight forward - at least to me.

[njcurveball]

Very nice and detailed work Mr. Huguenot!

This is the kind of tool you can use against the crowd in many situations!

Thanks for sharing,
Jim

[Huguenot]

On the turf I absolutely love to see a lower %E for the first fraction -- goes back to Cary Fotias' Turf Decline Line method of horses whose 4f velocity drop precipitously while their final time velocity remains relatively stable. I haven't noticed that final times play much of a part in my methods like Fotias mentions but then again I haven't done a formal study.

In dirt sprints conversely I love to see a spike in the 1st fraction energy figure. That's an old angle -- surprise early speed hints at coming form reversal -- but I find energy is a useful way to detect it.

[DanG]

Hug…4:34am…:eek:

Do horseplayers ever sleep???:confused:

5 days a week I receive a lesson in energy. I run… (I should admit I used to run; now it’s clearly more of a canter.)

I have three “courses” to choose from and I always time myself. (Course 1 and 2 are around the exact same golf course and the same distance.)


If I take a left the first 1/8th of a mile on an up hill.

“Turn to the right” (As ‘Ed would say in Raising Arizona) and I start on a gradual downhill.

The local high school track is perfectly flat and at exact ¼ mile distances.


Which course do I consistently have the best time on?...More times than not it’s #2, even though the last ¼ mile is a gradual upward grade.

The early part of my run almost ALWAYS determines my achievable final time. That’s why Ken is always referring to FR1 as energy consumed that is unavailable later in the race.

Yes there are horses that are what trainers call complete run-offs. They refuse to siphon one ounce of energy and will run like their tail is on fire. The better trainers though can teach them to ration their energy through constant reinforcement in the morning.

Next time you see a Bill Mott runner off a layoff come out rank…watch their second start and see the improved “energy” distribution. (Especially on the grass)

In closing…I have had no luck with EE% numbers, but sudden bursts in FR1 and RES (within distance limitations) are among the most powerful uses of accurate velocity information within HTR.

Good discussion and thanks to all for sharing.

[njcurveball]

I saw a posting on the PA Board about the stakes race last Friday (10/6, race 9) at Keeneland. The winner paid $96.80 and was rated #1 and #2 in many late categories.

I have found there are some nice spots for playing 2 years olds stretching out who have low percent early. I have to update my database to rank horses by this factor. But then again, with a day job, who has time to do what they actually WANT. ;-)

If you check percent early for that race, you will find the two lowest in the field are Bel Air Beauty (49.00) and Her Majesty (50.01).

Since I didn't even look at the race before hand, I plead guilty to after the race handicapping.

Using the favorite with these 2 horses the trifacta returns $4886.20. If you are smart enough to include the #1 K horse in your Super, you sign for $27,093.60.

Since we are all thinking Keeneland is a late running track, keep an eye on the low %early horses stretching out there.

I wish I could play this track, but that darn 9-5 job gets in the way!

Good luck to all,
Jim