Layoffs? 1-30 vs 45 or 60 days?

[Huguenot]

I'll make this one much narrower.

In my robot testing with angles using PL-1 I found much better results if you limited the last race to within 30 days rather than 90. That's changed my outlook in general in some ways, BUT what about 30 days vs. 45 or 30 days vs. 60? I've generally considered 45 days to be the dividing point for layoffs but never had any real evidence.

Could someone run these 3 tests which are the same except for the layoff category?

ALL ARE : .
PL 1
Purses 10k or greater
K1-4
Tote odds 5-15/1
Races for 3 yr olds and older (no 2 yr or 3 yr old only races)
NO maidens.
fast track dirt
6f-9f. Males & Females. All VIs.
--------------

1. Layoff 1-30 days
2. Layoff 1-45 days
3. Layoff 1-60 days.


I ran the robot in May and June and in both months the following categories were profitable or within a nickel or so with layoffs at 1-30 days. Always fared worse at 1-90.

1. SP = 1-- profits both months 1.29 and 1.19
2, PER = 1 .1.14 and .98
3. Class = 1 -- profits both months. 1.50 and 1.08
4, f3 = 1 1.39 and .95

Of all the tests I run SP is the most consistent and when SP-1 does poorly, SP-= 1 or 2 will do well. Even at a loss they will have among the highest ROIs and generally beat the take.

Wondering not so much whether I have a profitable play (tho that would be grand), but whether the differences in layoff dates changes the ROI or win % significantly. Should I treat layoffs of 28 and 43 days equally or is there really a difference in coming back within 30 or so days?

I've found that separating these into class and distance structure and age really makes a difference but so far my samples are too small to do much of that.

thanks.

[DanG]

Huguenot…

I apologize I don’t have #’s to supply you. This weekend has been very busy for me and I’m in the process of a major data overhaul.

I’ll summarize:

I quickly ran your criteria in the layoff ranges you mentioned and saw virtually no difference. .01 swings in ROI and Win% at the most. (Using SP = 1,2 as the criteria and covering 18 months of data)

For what it’s worth concerning layoffs I have recently changed my “range” of layoff categories as it were…

I’ve found a fundamental change in racing where the 1-30 doesn’t apply as neatly as it once did. Maybe it’s the almost obsession trainers / owners have with rest after good efforts or something else I couldn’t really say.

I break layoff cycles down in 10 different ranges…I run them in sequence so the next code can overwrite the previous value… (i.e.…2OL will overwrite a 45 day layoff for example.)

The sequence and ranges go as follows…

01 = >00 and <14
02 = >13 and <50
03 = >49 and <90
04 = >89 and <180
05 = >179
06 = nLAY90 = 2 (2nd off layoff)
07 = nLAY90 = 3 (3rd off layoff)
08 = 3rd lifetime start
09 = 2nd lifetime start
10 = 1st lifetime start

At first glance it may seem like overkill, but I’ve found them to be completely independent of one another. The animal off 91 days but only making his 3rd lifetime start has a very different expectancy than the 6yo claimer at Finger Lakes attempting the same loss in conditioning.

Again, sorry about the lack of data to help your cause, but I do assure you there is virtually no drop-off in performance under the 50 day limit. (Within the parameters of the criteria you described)

Best of luck…

[tbrown]

I can do it all except for the PL1 mode- my db is in PL5.

[Huguenot]

That's fine Tom. I'm sure the trends are similar.

Dan, thanks -- I appreciate the insight. Yes, I agree. My testing has shown differences among the categories. E.G. older NW horses vs. 3 yr olds,

[Freddy]

I have been just testing the waters the last few weeks but I am about ready for a deep dive. That I'm sure means that I will be leaning on the experienced users with questions. My first question:

= is second after layoff and ^ is third after layoff. What is the default for days off?

Thanks in Advance for your help
Freddy

[DanG]

I have been just testing the waters the last few weeks but I am about ready for a deep dive. That I'm sure means that I will be leaning on the experienced users with questions. My first question:

= is second after layoff and ^ is third after layoff. What is the default for days off?

Thanks in Advance for your help
Freddy
I’m not sure I understand the question Freddy. If you could elaborate I’ll take a crack at it.

Great newsletter on layoffs btw if you haven’t read it already:

• May-June / 2007: http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRReport-MayJun07.pdf

[Rick]

It also helps to mention which screen you are talking about.

[Freddy]

Sorry, I will try to clarify

The DRF uses 45 days. They underline to denote the horse has been off 45 days or more.
So if the horse is off 45 days or more his next start would be his 1st start off the layoff.

The TLC screen uses the = sign to denote second after layoff and ^ for 3rd after layoff.

How many days off in HTR before a horse is considered to be first after a layoff?

Thanks
Freddy

[Rick]

LAY – layoff or number of days since the last race.
Ex: 078 = horse has been off 78 days; FTS = first time starter
(@) = It now indicates that the horse finished far back in its most recent start - period. This could be a situation such as “eased”, “lost rider”, “pulled up”, “distanced”, etc., or if the horse finished 20 lengths or more back at the finish. Often there are excuses, such as mud or trouble, so consider the @ as a flag, not an elimination method.
(=) after LAY indicates 2nd start after layoff
(>) after LAY indicates a long layoff of 180+ days
(^) after LAY indicates 3rd start after layoff



From the TLC Help File.

Looks like it is 180 or more days.