Possible Belmont Angle

[CharlesB]

Here's a possible Belmont spot play that I would appreciate you larger database folks testing. Since Belmont Routes seem to require even speed throughout, I ran this on the Robot.

Distance >=8f
Surface:Dirt Fast
K<=3
AP=1
Fr3=1
Fr3 >=50fps
runks=0

Here's what I've got. It's not enough for me to even feel comfortable with, so I'd like to see it run on a larger scale. Belmont is such a chalky track, it would be nice to have a decent spot play there.



Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM LongW High I.V. 05/24/2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 00014 00006 43% 64% 79% 1.15 1.12 1.17 $05.4 00% $11 2.76

K=1 00007 00003 43% 71% 71% 0.83 1.05 0.85 $03.9 00% $5 2.69
K=2 00005 00002 40% 60% 80% 1.01 1.18 1.09 $05.1 00% $7 2.72
K=3 00002 00001 50% 50% 100 2.65 1.20 2.50 $10.6 00% $11 3.00


Races= 67 PL-5 Track= BEL
Alw/Stk Clm Msw Mcl 2yr 3yr 3up/4up Fems Male
Purse<$10k Purse>=$10k Vi 15-26 Vi 27-32 Vi 33-37 Vi 38-50 Fast-Dirt
8.0f 8.5f 9.0f-9.5f 10.0f-14.0f
K1 K2 K3 A/P=1 Fr3=1 Fr3>=50fps
FTS Lay1-30 Lay31-90 Lay91-180 Lay181+ UNK=0

[hurrikane]

not a lot of plays this '04 to present



NORaces TotWon NoWins Win% ROI
30 44 12 40 0.73
16 29 4 25 0.91
8 25 3 38 1.56

[CharlesB]

Thanks. As I was afraid, the spot play didn't hold up with further data.

They should change Belmont's nickname from the "Big Sandy" to "The Big Chalky"-- too many small fields at short prices.