70% winners

[njcurveball]

I still haven't found any improvements to my 70% winners system that will give more plays without dropping the win percentage.

I had set out with the intention of finding over 95% horses in the money and this system fits that criteria. Unfortunately I have found that often the show price is less then $2.40.

Todays Play

7CT #3 Ruling Star 2-1 ML

[njcurveball]

3 Ruling Star Gerald Almodovar 3.80 2.40 2.20
2 Investment Terms Erick Ramirez 3.20 2.40
8 Prepancy Luis A. Perez 2.60


This once again confirms my belief that players are overbetting place and show on big favorites, especially those who can get a rebate doing it.

Nice win price, especially since the horse was left, circled the field and was tons the best. :)

Now if I can just find a way to get more plays and keep the win% very high.

[Donnie]

Jim....sounds like you just need to hammer these guys instead...but then again with your huge bet in there, at some tracks, the tote will go "TILT!!" Keep up the good work....I, for one, enjoy watching your picks!

[Lee Carson]

Hey njcurveball,

I have been doing something similar since Feb 1st of this year - only time will support your 70% wins, although with that level of chalk, it should hold better than mine.

These are the results of my plays since Feb:

Feb/Mar 318 races / 51 plays 49% win 1.90 roi
Mar/Apr 742 races / 119 plays 38% win 1.45 roi
Last 30 days (since 5/4) 350 races 50 plays / 32% win 1.12roi

Overall test: (2/1 - 5/4) 1143 races 178 plays (15.5%) 34% win 1.30roi

So this thing is slowly going south - time of year? different tracks? who knows. So give your 13 race test more time - hopefully, you won't see the slide I have.

Here's the parameters I have used since Feb. It's a no brainer, so have used the Robot.
PL5
All Tracks
MLO >=3.0
Alw/Stk and Clmrs 3up mf
Purse >10k
Vi 27 up
7.0 - 9.5 furlongs
Fast Dirt
K1
RS f,e,p
E/P-1
Lay<90

I just ran two new tests - to the above plus adding VEL-1

The Overall Test from Feb 1st to 5/4: 1143 races 84 plays (7%) 44% win 1.66roi
The last 30 days are: 350 races 24 plays 38% win 1.37roi

So, 15.5% action , with 34% win and 1.30 roi
OR 7% action, with 44% win and 1.66 roi ?? Think I will go the slower route.

Hope this helps.
Lee

[Paladin]

Thanks for sharing Lee.

Those are good numbers with enough plays. And the best thing - All done with the Robot !
I'll try to check it out and maybe tinker here and there. Although, with the parameters you've set, you probably did a lot of "tinkering" to come up with those rules.
I noticed you've set the dist. starting at 7F. I've always thought that 7f is kind of a "tweener" distance. So you must have found that this just doesn't work with sprints, or OFF tracks?

Thanks again, -------- Paladin

[Paladin]

Lee, I checked out your robot plays for the tracks I have.

For 2006 (so far), I came up with similiar results.

Results For All of 2005:

650 Plays..... 25% Wins..... 0.96 ROI
However, VEL = 1 Results: Still making a profit.
275 Plays..... 31% Wins..... 1.15 ROI

-------- Paladin