70% winners

[njcurveball]

I have worked out a "system" that gets 70% winners. I am going to post 10 plays here to sort of give it a "public" test.

The good news is that 95% of the horses are in the money. The bad news is that show betting on favorites is not a great thing these days. With 95% cashes, it barely shows a profit.

I originally set up the parameters to see how many horses I could have run in the money consecutively. The best I could do was 27. But who has the guts to parlay all of the bankroll when you know the price will only be $2.10? I also had 17 straight place cashes, but once again, some of them wound up paying $2.10.

Win betting turned out MUCH better, 70% winners at an avg. mutuel of $3.32 shows a nice consistent profit. With the stringent rules, there are only 40 plays a year on average. When the number of plays increase, the win% declined. So far the most consecutive winners has been 9 and the most consecutive losers has been 2.

OK, check out Race #7 at Gulfstream today, #2 Salute the Country. YES he will be the favorite, so we are looking for a mutuel in the $3 to $4 range.

Jim

[Donnie]

Wow! That is an impressive number Jim! Looking forward to your posts (this board is THE litmus test....in the past if you wanted your numbers to prove you a liar, just post your picks up here....never seemed to fail!). Hope the numbers run forward for you!

Don't know if he can do this, but it would be cool if Rick could set it that you could go back in and edit your post indefinitely. That way you could keep the list running on one message. Since there are only 40 plays per year...may be a couple weeks before you post the next in your series of 10.

BOL!!

[Rick]

I don't like to let people edit their post forever.

There is no indicator that lets me know if a post has been edited. There is an indicator that lets me know a message has been replied to.

I never go back to look and see if a post has been edited. I sometimes stumble across them and wonder how someone is suppose to know that he posted something new.

Until they change the way vBulletin handles edits don't look for me to change the edit time. I have it set for 24 hours and I think that is too long.

People can copy and paste their previous message into a reply to the thread and add their changes to it. Then, as long as it is not the 1st message in the thread, they can delete the previous message. That way there is an indicator that the post has been updated/changed/modified/etc.

If you delete the first message in a thread you delete the whole thread.

[njcurveball]

3 of 6 horses have been scratched from that race, including the horse mentioned above.

RACE 7 SCRATCH # 1 -- CHOCTAW CHARLIE
SCRATCH # 2 -- SALUTE THE COUNT
SCRATCH # 6 -- LAYTON

If Gulfstream is trying to be the "premier" meet, why do they have problems filling a field for mid-level claimers? And why would half the field scratch on a 70 degree day where the track is fast?

As for keeping a tally I will keep a list in each post showing the previous results. Listed below are the all the plays for this year so far from this query.

DATE RACE HORSE ML FIN WIN$ / PLACE$
1/14 6SA STEVIE WONDERBOY 0.8 2 0 / 2.1
1/18 4BEU KIPPER KATE 2.5 1 4.2/ 3.2
1/26 2SA KRISTINES KING 1.2 1 3.0/ 2.4
1/29 2TUP SNUGGLE ME UP 2 1 3.2/ 2.4
2/20 7PHA HONEST APPEAL 1.4 3 0/ 0
2/24 8PEN DR FIELD 2.5 1 6.2/ 3.0
3/03 9CT BISHOFTU 2 1 4.0/ 3.4
3/04 6HOU TWILIGHT VISION 1.8 1 6.4/3.2
3/05 8PHA L M BLAZER 3 2 0/ 3.0

As you probably can tell, I have been waiting for another play for some time now! I doubt I will quit my day job, but it is a testament to the quality of the program that a high percentage of winners can be generated by the data.

[jbshoulda]

This is what's so nice about HTR and handicapping. You can find stuff like above or fire away a little more each day and get results like this since Jan 1st, 82 days.

Play All 00927 00158 17% 32% 41% 1.24 1.09 0.92 $14.5 28 $59 1.58

Will it continue? Nobody knows for sure but it is in a little slump currently.

[Paladin]

Hey jb, that looks pretty good. If I'm reading this right, you have 927 Plays in 82 days !
And on the win end - 17%Wins, +24%ROI, Avg. Win Mutuel $14.50 ?
I really like the number of plays.
Somehow when I'm working on a system, I usually end up whittling the # of plays down, to get a higher Win%/Roi. By then, there's not enough plays to make it practical.
Do you often have more than one play in the same race?

[jbshoulda]

Paladin......You read it right and it is just one pick per qualifying race. This month is pretty much break even but if you pass the races your selections are getting hammered then it's much better.