njcurveball
9th March 2006, 11:32.05 PM
For all the "old timers", I am sure this old news. But if there are other "freshman" on the board, like myself, sometimes this HTR data is eye opening! And NOT in a "Bareback Mountain" kind of way. ;-)
The $$ horses are nothing short of a stroke of genius. When we had a group of Sartin guys with laptops at the track over a decade ago, people would ask us for longshots all the time. We all knew that you only needed to hit 1 of these to make a good buck. Lots of people wouldn't come back to ask again after a few losses. But statistically if you stay in the "home run derby", you will end up in the black.
OK, the export stops at a ranking of 9 for morning line and a ranking of 9 for K. So here is how you hit a home run.
Take the UGLIEST morning line ranked horses with $$ qualifications. That would be ML rank = 9 for you data miners.
My database has 1,438 horses with an ROI of $2.05 for $2. How amazing is it to get a sample of over 1,000 horses AND a positive ROI! Did I say this HTR data was good stuff or what?
Now check it out with ANY RK < 9. This eliminates a LOT of UGLY horses. My database has 387 horses with these qualifications AND an AMAZING ROI of $2.78 for every $2!
NOW the weekly readers on this board are thinking TURF BOMBS caused this, right? WRONG!
The query returned 82 horses on turf and an ROI of ONLY 95 cents for every $2!!!!
Staying on DIRT (wet or dry) returns 305 horses and an amazing, incredible ROI of $3.27 for every $2 wagered!
Try this yourself, since I do not have a lot of minor tracks in my database. If you add it with all the good stuff we know about these $$ horses on turf, you have a nice start to your HTR Investment Portfolio!
NLONG = 2
RMLO = 9 (could be multiple horses in a big field)
RK < 9
NSURF = 1 or 3
Jim
The $$ horses are nothing short of a stroke of genius. When we had a group of Sartin guys with laptops at the track over a decade ago, people would ask us for longshots all the time. We all knew that you only needed to hit 1 of these to make a good buck. Lots of people wouldn't come back to ask again after a few losses. But statistically if you stay in the "home run derby", you will end up in the black.
OK, the export stops at a ranking of 9 for morning line and a ranking of 9 for K. So here is how you hit a home run.
Take the UGLIEST morning line ranked horses with $$ qualifications. That would be ML rank = 9 for you data miners.
My database has 1,438 horses with an ROI of $2.05 for $2. How amazing is it to get a sample of over 1,000 horses AND a positive ROI! Did I say this HTR data was good stuff or what?
Now check it out with ANY RK < 9. This eliminates a LOT of UGLY horses. My database has 387 horses with these qualifications AND an AMAZING ROI of $2.78 for every $2!
NOW the weekly readers on this board are thinking TURF BOMBS caused this, right? WRONG!
The query returned 82 horses on turf and an ROI of ONLY 95 cents for every $2!!!!
Staying on DIRT (wet or dry) returns 305 horses and an amazing, incredible ROI of $3.27 for every $2 wagered!
Try this yourself, since I do not have a lot of minor tracks in my database. If you add it with all the good stuff we know about these $$ horses on turf, you have a nice start to your HTR Investment Portfolio!
NLONG = 2
RMLO = 9 (could be multiple horses in a big field)
RK < 9
NSURF = 1 or 3
Jim