Group Odds

[Pizzaman]

A new feature of ATRpro V4.13 is Group Odds, which monitors groups of horses, chosen by their odds ranking, for times when their 'dutched odds' provide a reasonable return. An alarm can be set to go off and/or ATRpro can automatically submit the bets when criteria is met.

The Group Odds feature is also useful if you want to be alerted to races when either the favorite or first two or three choices either are at very low odds or relatively high odds. For example, you can use this feature to be alerted when:

1) the favorite's odds is at relatively high value by monitoring the 1st betting choice.
2) the favorite's odds is at a very low value by monitoring the 2nd or 2nd/3rd betting choices.

Documentation for Group Odds is available at http://homebased2.com/atr/dnl/ATRdocs.pdf , starting on Slide75.

Also new to V4.13 is the way options are handled. There is now a separate Options Form as described in the documentation, starting on Slide 68.

[Victor]

Is this related to the group overlay method discussed in Mitchell's book?

[Pizzaman]

Victor,

I am not familiar with Mitchell's book. However, the Group Odds feature is in effect a group overlay method. Joe Verra came up with the concept as a way to profit from the Pinnacle rebate with absolutely no handicapping of any kind.

Joe had identified situations at specific tracks, based solely on the betting action on a group of horses chosen by their odds ranking, that could produce profits after rebate. He had success betting with his method manually but found it very consuming as he was typically playing less than half of the races he monitored. He extended his concept to ATRpro as a way of getting as much action as possible.

[Victor]

Pizzaman,

From my First Edition of Mitchell's "Winning Thoroughbred Strategies,

"Michael Pascual in his excellent booklet Bankroll Control gives the following example. Suppose you know that your performance, when the field is narrowed to four contenders, is to have the winner approximately 70 percent of the time. You arrive at the track and the odds offered are the following:

No. 1 3 to 1
No. 2 5 to 1
No. 3 9 to 1
No. 4 15 to 1

There is a technique in which you can bet all the horses and expect to make a profit in the long run because of the discrepancy between the probability estimates of the crowd and your own handicapping."

Pascual, Michael, "Bankroll Control," unpublishedd manuscript, 1987.

[Victor]

No matter how you slice it, the answer must always be: return greater than risk. That's why I have been lately paying closer attention to the odds.

I would also agree that the goal of making money with no "handicapping" is part of the equation, because handicapping is what "they" are doing.