The Chaos Turf Route

[ggpagels]

You need a little patience for this one.

nSurf=2
nChaos=1
nLong=2
nDist>7

01/01/2003 thru 10/10/2005
853 plays
105 wins 12.31%
ROI Win $1.54 Place $1.13 Show $1.03
Ave. Mutual $24.95
High Mutual $105.00

01/01/2005 thru 10/10/2005
270 plays
33 wins 12.22%
ROI Win $1.61 Place $1.16 Show $1.05
Ave. Mutual $26.31
High Mutual $90.40

[ggpagels]

10/16/2005 winner

WO race 8
#7 Pyramid Park $108.40 $45.00 $20.90

:D

[km]

Good one Jerry, $$ in a Chaos Turf Route. Thanks, perfect for tournaments.

[njcurveball]

In my small database, I do not see this as profitable at less < 12-1 ML
62 starts, $1.08 ROI (based on $2).

However, at ML 12-1 to 20-1, I could have bought a hybrid to save gas!

37 starts, $313.30 returned, gaudy $8.46 ROI! If we could do this for a year or so, I can start giving rides in my limo. :-)
Jim

[km]

Thanks for that follow up NJ, here's another.

Robot Test
Month to Date: Oct 1 - Oct 17
Turf 7.0 - 14.0
Chaos
$$

Play All 00038 00003 08% 16% 26% 3.04 1.61 1.17 $77.0 10 $108 0.92

3 winners in 38 tries, but a 3.04 ROI due to three big bombs.

Big bombs: that's the whole point with this one, right Jerry?

[ggpagels]

Yes, this a "Big Bomber", but a 12% win rate over almost three years for a longshot play isn't
bad. Here are the bombs:

WO 10/16/2005 $108.40
WO 10/14/2004 $105.00
CRC 12/13/2003 $ 96.80
SA 10/10/2005 $ 90.40
HAW 10/11/2004 $ 81.00
WO 06/04/2004 $80.50
:eek:

[fred4now]

Maybe only play this one in October :D

[km]

ha ha yeah, it's the Halloween play F4N
Pretty scary with just 12% winners!

[ggpagels]

Hurry, only 13 racing days left after today. :D

[Paladin]

Oct.10 - 16th. "The Golden Week". $$

[Sheets Guy]

VERY interesting. PL5 I assume?

Has anyone tested it with PL4?


Regards,
Ian

[ggpagels]

Ian-Yes, PL-5. I don't have a PL-4 database anymore. I had a PL-4 database but dumped it about a year ago because my back testing for turf races really wasn't significantly different from PL-5. I didn't specifically test this query at that time, however, because the "nChaos" field wasn't available.

[Huguenot]

has anyone tested CHAOS against large fields in general, turf or dirt route? Say fields with 10 or more horses where high odds horses come in more often?

And I wish Ken had spelled it KAOS. not that HTR is an international organization of evil.
:)

[km]

"ve haf vays of vmaking you talk"

Results with PL-4 (using Robot, 365-day sample)

PL-4
CHAOS
$$
Turf 7.0-14.0f

Play All 00351 00045 13% 24% 34% 1.46 1.18 1.03 $22.8 56 $78 1.40

win = 13%
roi = 1.46
avg mutuel = $22.80, high pay = $78

Profit across the board, WPS

[km]

Andy, that was a good idea!

Chaos (KAOS) results; field > 9; for last 365-day; about 1,000 races

= Chaos
= Any surface
= Dist 6.5 - 14.0 (eliminating < 6.5 removes the majority of 2yr maiden races full of FTS)
= Purse 10k+

Definitely lives up to its billing ---->

Average winning mutuel for the sample = $18.93

Longshot win rate is 36% (normal is 20%)

$$: ROI = 1.43 (12.5% winners)

The $$ was the strongest factor with ROI by far, but $, SP=1, Fr1=1, Wk=1, Wk80+, Wk85+, TRN400 all showed positive ROI as well.

Interesting that a bet on every horse in every race here returns 0.86, a reflection of the high average win mutuel that is common with these races.

[tbrown]

Would you believe 1.33? ( :rolleyes: )

Holy boxcars, Batman......this looks like the promised land.
Time to start studying this Kaos in big fields.

[Huguenot]

Yeah, but to keep the prices high no one is allowed to bet more than $5 and we're going to ration the tracks among the users, two tracks each.

Tom, you get Blue Ribbon Downs and Yavapai

:D :D



Starker, this iz HTR, ve don't lose here!

[Huguenot]

Not in the letter of the law, a 6f maiden race with only 9 starters, but at belmont sunday, 2nd race, chaos, MSW on the turf with $$ paid $85.
The other $$ horse -- 3-1 -- was 3rd.