Try this one!!!!!

[njcurveball]

The data mine is cold, lonely and dusty (cough, cough). Maybe we can warm it up? :-)

This may be just quirky, or a direct descendent of lightning keeps striking the same place twice.

BUT, 40 horses have been ML 10-1+ and FR1 > 60.99 so far in my database. Can anyone recognize these "gold nuggets"?

20-AUG-05 10 CRC 9 Straightmanshadow $60
25-AUG-05 9 TDN 3 Mr. Irish Love $10 (yes, 10 measly dollars!)
09-SEP-05 6 LRL 11 Blown Audit $67.2
10-SEP-05 6 BM 7 Fannie Jo $145.8
30-SEP-05 9 MNR 2 Dixie Dazzler $70.2

5 wins ($353.20) / 2 seconds / 3 thirds

How does an ROI of $8.83 sound? Hit one of these in a tourney and you may just make a whole lot more than that!

Probably just some lightning storms, but would be interesting to study if I had a few years worth of data.

Jim

[ggpagels]

I have 57,088 races in my database from 01/01/2003. Of those 304 horses started with M/L odds >10 and F1 >60.99. There were 18 winners(5.92%) with a ROI of $1.27. That is 1 play for every 187 races. If you were unlucky and missed playing the $145.80 winner at BM on 9/10/2005 your ROI would be $1.03.

[HBee]

Curveball

Welcome to the group. I am probably one of the few on board who knows where you live - grew up in Camden, and spent many many days at ACRC.

I took your theory and ran it against my data. Period covered - 2/1/05 to 9/30/05, FR1 > 60.1 and M/L >=10.


Total Bets 193
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount 386.00 386.00 386.00
Wins 22 38 58
Pct. 11.40% 19.69% 30.05%
Amount Won 706.50 420.60 339.90
Profit/Loss 320.50 34.60 -46.10
Pct Profit Loss 83.03% 8.96% -11.94%
Avg. Payout 32.11 11.07 5.86

Looks like my formatting won't hold up, but it's 193 bets/22 wins for 11.4% winners, an average payout of $32+ and 83% ROI. Nice results if you can handle long run outs.

I love datamining, but as they say in the financial advertisments, "past performances do not gaurantee future results".

A dumb statement - as any horse player can tell you :D

Herman

[HBee]

In the previous post, it's FR1>60.9

Herman

[HBee]

Jerry,

There is a difference in our output. What's different? The only parameters I used were nML>= 10 and nFR1 >60.9.

Herman

[ggpagels]

Herman- I used nML>10 and F1v>60.99 where it appears you used nML>=10 and F1v>60.9. I think that makes our results different. My database that goes back to 01/01/2003 also contains only U. S. major tracks plus WO.

[njcurveball]

Jerry,

Can you break it out by ML? The basic query is FR1 >= 61.00. We all know early speed wins more than it's share of races. I am sure some tracks are profitable with longshots on the lead.

With my database there were two plays today which fit this criteria. How bout yours?

12-OCT-05 5 DEL 3 Eastern Point
12-OCT-05 6 HAW 8 Mr Mag


Jim

[Donnie]

hope ya had yer money down on that Point horse! $16.60 fer the win hole! Better yet it keyed a $560 tri! And there were only 6 horses in the race! As Shaggy would say, "ZOINKS!!"

[ggpagels]

F1v>+61.00

M/L Plays Win% ROI

All 1988 20.7 .94
<2/1 183 45.9 .92
>=2 <=5 986 25.9 .89
>5 <10 418 10.8 .84
>=10 401 6.5 1.16

[Donnie]

wow...that's a pretty good ROI for >=10! Just out of curiousity, can you run it for just over 10-1? Do not include the equals. Can you also test for bombs in the result set of winners? Might be a good play to call in early in the day and forget about.

Thanks for the results Jer!

[ggpagels]

Donnie-Results of F1v>=61.00 and nML>10

Database 01/01/2003 thru 10/10/2005

298 plays
18 wins
6.04 % win%
$1.29 ROI

Problems:
Only 298 plays in two years and 9 1/2 months
Sample includes the $145.80 winner, which if it wasn't played, drops ROI to $1.05.

Positive:
ROI of $1.05 is still a better return than a 10-year U. S. Treasury Bill :D

[hurrikane]

wow.

6% win rate. That's a killer

long dry times between wins