This is interesting stuff

[njcurveball]

Hello to all,

I have been reading the posts and working with the software for a lil over a month now. Many things I have seen look very encouraging. Perhaps even more encouraging is the "humanity" of this group with the recent disasters. It almost (ok, well it did) bring a tear to my eye reading post after post offering help to those effected.

OK, ENOUGH SAPPY STUFF. Let's get down to business. I have an Oracle database which is populated with about 2 months of data now. If anyone can give me help getting some more data files, it will let me see if this stuff is short term or long term.

I like the K number and how it indicates live horses at nice odds. I think Ken has done a great job in taking some "main stream" data and turning it into factors indigenous to his software. We all are looking for an edge and this data certainly can give that.

My first study I will post surprised me. I took the usual ML 6-1+ and looked at how it did with the Kline < 8. I dont like to slice too thin, or backfit.

ML 6-1+ and Kline < 8 yielded 8,375 horses in 2months (hooray for simulcasting), the ROI was a very average $1.68.

After a few gyrations, I used the NLIVEL factor. Look at how it sliced this large sample.

NLIVEL HORSES $WON ROI
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
0 5500 8987.4 1.63407273
1 2025 3409.7 1.68380247
2 850 1699.8 1.99976471

For anyone who bets through a rebate shop, an ROI of $1.999 for 850 horses in a 2 month period is VERY TASTY. Unfortunately I wager on-line through 4NJBETS (a prisoner of the state of NJ). I will be working some more on this, but thought it was very appropriate to see if others have had success using this non-mainstream data.


thanks,
Jim

[Victor]

njcurveball,

I ran this back to July 04 and unfortunately, it shows about a negative 10% return on 6501 plays with a 13% win percentage. Could be the basis for a good spot-play though.

I'll take a closer look at nLiveL.

Thanks

[Victor]

"(a prisoner of the state of NJ)."

njcurveball,

youbet and ALL other U.S. (and Canadian) betting companies will not deal with us, there are however, others who will. :)

[Victor]

make that many others.

It's illegal what this State is doing in violation of the U.S. Constitution,

see the Commerce Clause.

[km]

Good study there NJ, thanks for sharing and welcome to our board, keep em coming.

Victor is great at verifying any parameter tests with larger samples, so plug away and post as much as you want. If you dig deep enough, you sometimes hit paydirt.

[Victor]

Clause 3: To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

Not the State of New Jersey can decide what "they want to do."

[Victor]

Let's sum it up:

I'm not the criminal here, the State of New Jersey is acting illegally.

If the case is ever brought to the Court, I'm the one who'll still be standing.

[Donnie]

Yeah,.....welcome aboard 'curveball! Been a while since I datamined.... Good luck and looking forward to more posts!

[njcurveball]

Victor,

Good thoughts. I have written everyone involved to the point where I get no response. I am talking the racing commission, general managers, 4njbets people, etc. I guess they dont like people who tell them the Emperor has no clothes.

Here in South Jersey we cannot even deposit or withdraw at ACRC! Last I checked that track was in New Jersey! Talk about doing WHATEVER you want. I think it was more democratic in Medieval Times. At least then we could get a stong horse and some sharp arrows to make a point. :)

Jim