Those Stinkin XFAVs

[hurrikane]

Hey, number one...cool.

After sitting at the Orleans and all of us watching those stinking XFAVs come in one after anouther ...I got to thinking.

I tracks false favs daily doing rMLO = 1 rKrat >2. These pups only win about 19% of their races. Many times the second fav wins.

I was curious so I tested xFAV = 1 and rKrat >2

CountOfnRACE
1955
NoOfWins
556
SumOfxWin
2914.2

Win %
28%

I've only exported about 10mo with xFAV
Maybe Km or someone with more data can run it.

I'm really curious if all this money is going to the xFAV then there may be some money to scrape from the other 62% winners.

[Huguenot]

PL-5 I presume?

[hurrikane]

sure, let's start there huge

[fred4now]

from Oct 2000-4/12/2005

xfav=1
rkrat>2

4710 bets
win % 28.13
ROI .74

place % 50.45
ROI .81

show % 64.76
ROI .84

__________________________________________________ ___________________


xfav=1 by rkrat

win % ROI
=1 42 .88
=2 34 .80
=3 29 .74
=4 27 .74
=5 22 .62

[hurrikane]

Thanks surfer dude,

as I suspected these puppies have a weakness. Just have to find a way to exploit it.

you have an easy way to see how many time they go off as

rAodd = 1

and how many times raodds =2 wins?

i gotta finish converting data....

[fred4now]

same sample size

rkrat>2
xfav=1

raodd # win% ROI
=1 3129 32 .73
=2 959 23 .79
=3 406 16 .62
=4 147 14 .73

[fred4now]

I don't think I really answered your question.

If raodd=1, then how often did raodd=2 win?

Gonna have to think about that one. :confused:

[hurrikane]

Thanks Freddy,

I'm really just thinking how to skim a little of of these false xFAVs.

If they are coming out at less than even money that is a lot left in the win pool.

I wonder if they don't win do they even finish in the money. does the 2nd fav pay enough to make a pos roi or can you pick it up in the exotics.

I really just hate xFAVs....it's a personal thing. :D

this will give you a count of winners

raodds = 2
SUM(iif(xwin>0, 1, 0))

[MikeDee]

Don't have any current data in a db right now but in the past I tested the nodds r=1 fav and the K rank 3 or higher. The win% of the fav drops in the 20% to 25% range.

BUT, could not figure a way to exploit it as the win% of everything else drops into the 20% range as well. AND, the % of longshot winners does not go up, it stays in the 17% to 22%.

[tomcat]

How about adding another factor to increase the ITM%....Then play it as a wheel in tris and supers?

[hurrikane]

That's kind of my thinking here Tom. On the win side I ended up where Mike did on the false favs. but there is more money sitting on these guys so that may change. Plus - if we can figure these pups not winning 65% of the rtime there might be some nice money in the picks/exotics. I'm even thinking a lot of these guys are being singled in the p-Xs. Would like to check the payouts on the PX's where these guys do not win.....could be sweet.

[km]

XFAV should already be a false favorite if the K rating puts it rank 2 or worse. Long term probability models prove that K-1 will defeat the other ranks far more often than not. Yet the XFAV has fulfilled a series of factor parameters that tell us it should win in the 40% range overall, and that is higher than the typical K-1, up to about K110. You will find a rare heavyweight event in which the K110(K=1) vs. XFAV (K=2) however.

Isn't that like Alien vs. Predator?

Friday (4/15) races, check out BM-5th for one of these.

You can quickly tag XFAV K > 1 by using the robot' GET MY PLAYS, check off XFAV and remove the checkmark for K = 1.

The situation is interesting, thanks for the discussion, I'll run some tests for the next newsletter and see if we can gain some angles on this.

[hurrikane]

thanks Ken....that would be great. It would be nice to be able to play against these animals whenever possible.

[MikeDee]

KEE race 1 thursday is a good example of what I was talking about, not xfav per se, but favs that are k3 or higher.

The off odds fav was 4.1 and the it was the k6 horse. the K1 (also the ML fav) went off at 5.9.

The finish was 9/8/3/7 and their off odds were: 24.8/23.3/11.5/26.9
The dime super paid $2743 and no one ( not even a dime ticket) had all 4.

The 9 was pickable in htr but a 9/all/all/all would have cost $99 with dime wagers. I played 3-9/3-9/a bunch/a bunch that cost $3.40, because a 3-9/3-9/all/all for $18 is still to much for my blood. My bunches did not have the 8 or 7. The 3 was a reach and no way to pick the 7 or 8 except with a WAG, a hunch, or a ALL.

But it's fun to have a ticket in races like this and if you can get lucky you could have had the entire pool for a dime wager. Sure beats buying a $4 ticket in the mega millions ;)

[hurrikane]

interesting Mike,

I was all over the 9. Nice since every other spot play my db spit out yesterday was bet down to nothing. So, one bet, big pay.

not in tune on the dime supers and didn't even consider it. I need to get in line.

Of course I couldn't buy one of these at the ORleans.....sheeessh!

[Paladin]

2004
XFAV
VI: 32 and Under
Fields >= 10

K1-637 Plays - 35% Win - 0.74 ROI
K2-141 Plays - 31% Win - 0.81 ROI