Ok People, let's throw one together.

[Victor]

I'm going to download all available PEN race and result files and then go from there. :)

[Victor]

Sure they're crooked, but facts are facts!

[Victor]

First thing we see is F1 is currently a disaster at this track. :mad:

FR1-1 00198 0028 14% 0.48 28% 0001 04 $20

SP on the other hand is not:
S/P-1 00197 0046 23% 0.99 39% 0004 09 $29

[Victor]

What I'm going to do is "fabricate" :) a way to beat they crooks.
I'm going to take SP and add a little something to it and then verify it across a year or so of races.
Then I'm going to play into this trend if there is one.

Any comments?

[Victor]

MyPlay 00059 0024 41% 1.22 53% 0001 04 $24 0.90

I got the play, but will it hold up?

[Victor]

Wow!

They really are crooks.

Since 8/20/03

Total Bets 679
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 1358.00 1358.00 1358.00
Wins 185 322 432
Pct. 27.25% 47.42% 63.62%
Amount Won 1071.80 1211.80 1242.80
Profit/Loss -286.20 -146.20 -115.20
Pct Profit Loss -21.08% -10.77% -8.48%
Avg. Payout 5.79 3.76 2.88

[Victor]

Ok, new theory, I will redesign a few things and see if that helps.

(notice I didn't lose any money yet)

[Victor]

Ya gotta admit, this is a tough track.

That's all I'm saying.

[Victor]

Tough ain't the word.

There are no (profitable) patterns that I can find as of yet.

[Victor]

Now I'm starting to get pissed.

I can win almost 45% and lose money?

This track is so tough I would have to reccomend "handicapping" as an alternative. :)

Total Bets 333
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 666.00 666.00 666.00
Wins 149 208 247
Pct. 44.74% 62.46% 74.17%
Amount Won 613.20 628.40 614.90
Profit/Loss -52.80 -37.60 -51.10
Pct Profit Loss -7.93% -5.65% -7.67%
Avg. Payout 4.12 3.02 2.49