Super Trainers

[ggpagels]

Here is a spot play based on studies that KM has written about several times.

nTRN>=400
rTRN=1
nLAY between 28 and 90
nCLA<>3
nPUR>=10
nTRCH 1 or 2

Since 01/01/2003
Bets 684
Wins 191(27.92%)
ROI $1.06
Ave mutual $7.61
Largest mutual $29.80

Since 09/01/2004
Bets 83
Wins 27(32.53%)
ROI $1.32
Ave Mutual $8.13
Largest mutual $20.60

No "bombs" in either study to inflate ROI. Some of these horses look really awful on paper but these trainers know how to turn them around. I saw Jeff Mullins(465 nTRN) claim a horse that lost a state bred $12,000 claimer by 7 lengths at SOL and win an open $25,000 claimer with her at DMR after a 36 day layoff.

[ggpagels]

Plays 35
Wins 14
Win% 40%
ROI $1.29
Ave Mutual $6.47
High Mutual $20.60 Dutrow(424)

[hurrikane]

Jerry
Even though these guys have been draggin a little since the 1st of DEC you gotta just love these guys. How they go off at 8 and 10 - 1 always surprises me. Great for the Pick X plays with a 40% win clip.

[km]

Great stats Jerry, thanks.

Kane brings up a good point. Our parameter of 400 for the 'super trainer' may not necessarily be the same as the public perception of 'super'. Many so called 'supers' have slipped below the 400 line such as Scott Lake and Bob Bafferet and they are not included in these tests any more. On the other hand, there are many trainers not in the spotlight who score above the 400 line. So the continued good results are due to our differences with the public and the media on just who is a 'super trainer'.

[ggpagels]

Plays 34
Wins 9
Win% 26.5%
ROI $.77
Ave Mutual $5.84
High Mutual $10.60 Barnes(482)

Winter month or end of the "milkshake"? :confused:

[hurrikane]

Jer,
this is really a tough time of year.

try a query by trainer on these guys for off tracks (nsurf = 3)

see what you get.

[Huguenot]

Jerry,
I don't use DBs so I want to make sure I understand the query.

nPUR>=10. is the claiming price?
nCLA<>3 Dont quite understand this one. class number less than or greater than 3?
nTRCH 1 or 2. Something about trainer changes....

thax

[HBee]

Jerry,
I don't use DBs so I want to make sure I understand the query.

nPUR>=10. is the claiming price?
nCLA<>3 Dont quite understand this one. class number less than or greater than 3?
nTRCH 1 or 2. Something about trainer changes....
thax

nPUR=>10 sets the miminum purse value of the race at $10,000
nCLA<>3 sets the race class at NOT 3 (MSW)
TRCH 1 or 2 sets the value of trainer change at 1 or 2 (newly acquired horse by claim or other means)

I hope that helps.

Herman

[ggpagels]

Herman-Thanks for clarifying :D

[Huguenot]

appreciate it thanks....

[ggpagels]

'kane-2/7 on nSurf=3 paying $8.00 and $10.60.

[hurrikane]

jerry,
i did it by tTRN. it seems some trainers don't push the horses in the rain and some do.

may find the same thing with jockies.

this is just a really tough time of year.

[tomcat]

Jerry, since I play only selected certain tracks, my results are a little different and not quite as good. I need to play the tracks you and Hurricane play. However, do you lose a few winners by not starting at the lay at "0"?

[hurrikane]

tom, I have found the LAY reduces the number of plays but boosts the ROI.

interesteing thing I am finding on nLAY with turf routes. A layoff of >=45 days almost always increases win % and ROI dramatically.

[ggpagels]

Tom- My study shows the the same as 'Kane's. A better ROI with nLAY between 28 and 90.

[ggpagels]

67 Plays
23 Wins(34.3%)
$1.15 ROI
High Mutual $17.40

[Huguenot]

Thanks,
what's the cumulative results on this angle from Sept 04?

[ggpagels]

Since 09/01/2004
Plays 200
Wins 65(32.5%)
ROI $1.16
High Mutual $20.60

:D

[km]

Here is an "all burger" sample from the robot with Trainer change and TRN 400+, no other filters or factors.

03263 0875 27% 1.00 44% 0057 07 $94 0.86

27% winners with an ROI of break even is excellent with no other stipulations.

Jerry's data continues to hold sound and when other factors are applied and dozens of winning spot plays can be uncovered from the basic: nTRN >= 400; nTRCH > 0

Will the latest scrutiny of the 'super' trainers, such as Mullins, start to diminish these results? Trainers with ratings above 400 were probably unheard of 5 years ago. It is the equivalent of hitting 60+ homers in a season in baseball, almost impossible to accomplish without cheating.

Q? to baseball fans =
Since it is likely Bonds, McGuire and Sosa used steroids and HGH, etc to club their big totals, does that put Roger Maris accomplishment (61 home runs in 1961) in a new light? He may be the only "clean" player in history to actually surpass Babe Ruth's incredible 60 in the last 8 decades. Awesome.

[Huguenot]

Q? to baseball fans =
Since it is likely Bonds, McGuire and Sosa used steroids and HGH, etc to club their big totals, does that put Roger Maris accomplishment (61 home runs in 1961) in a new light? He may be the only "clean" player in history to actually surpass Babe Ruth's incredible 60 in the last 8 decades. Awesome.

Maris is one of my favorite players of all time. Having said that, he did have a very short right-field porch (296 feet), hit ahead of Mickey Mantle so he got lots of good pitches to hit, and did the feat in an expansion year when the pitching was pitiful. Remember Mantle hit 54 that year and might have broken the record himself if he hadn't gotten hurt and missed much of the last month. About half a dozen Yankees had career years that season.

Of course Ruth hit 60 over the same short porch, had Lou Gehrig hitting behind him, and did the feat in an era when there were no African-American pitchers, no night games and no coast-to-coast travel to mess up your body rhythms.

So you see everyone has their advantages. I agree the steriod aided HRs are totally tainted, but you have to put ALL the feats in perspective and context.

[km]

Andy, your arguments are good, but consider this these facts =

Maris was an average sized guy, smoked cigarettes and had a poor man's diet. They didn't know anything about nutrition and bio-technology. Ruth and Mantle drank heavily, stuffed themselves with junk food and womanized all night. None of those guys worked out with weights, it was even forbidden in some contracts.

Maris made less than $10,000 the year he hit 61 homers. He was brutalized by the NY press for that paltry sum. Even had death threats. The pressure was immense.

McGuire made $9,000,000 (that's 9 million) the year he broke the record. He could afford a personal trainer, nutritionist and of course the best performance enhancing drugs money could buy. And he access to all the latest technology for hitting with computer bio-mechanics, video, etc. The drugs do not just bulk up and allow faster recovery and more weight room time, but they greatly enhance the "hunter" instincts: hieightened senses, razor sharp focus, agressive behavior, keen eyesight.

After MLB was in the dulldrums in the 1990's, it widely known that they 'juiced' the ball and wound it tighter for a more lively game. Combine that with all the advantages McGuire had above and he was the one with the 'perfect storm' to hit 61+, not Maris.

In 100 years of baseball prior to McGuire and Sosa, only two players hit over 60 homers. Surely in all that time, someone else would have put together a season with all the advantages you named for Maris and Ruth, but it never happened. I'll hold high respect for Maris' accomplishment; just don't feel that way for Bonds, McGuire and Sosa.

[jbshoulda]

So Ken what your telling me is that if I start using steroids my handicapping will be out of this world:) Now i have that trigger pulling activator. Where's that drug store?

[km]

Right on JB, no drug testing at the tourneys! In fact they pass it out for free (alcohol).

Stop by BALCO on your way to Vegas and get us some.

[ggpagels]

OK guys, move this off my "Super Trainer" Thread. :D :D

[km]

sorry Jerry - i got carried away - will stick to horse racing now!

[tomcat]

Jerry, do play tr>400+K1? I know several guys do.

[ggpagels]

Tomcat- I haven't played that angle or researched it. I stick to the factors I have outlined.

[hurrikane]

Interestingly enough....Mullins gets suspended and all of these guys (this play) tank in Feb.

They're running strong this month though. Must have gotten off of probation.

[ggpagels]

Super Trainers results for first quarter 2005

109 plays
34 wins
31.2% win
$.95 ROI
$17.40 high mutual

Milkshake checking taking its toll :confused:

[km]

Not bad actually Jerry, that is a decent ROI for high profile trainers. Methink we might lower the Super Trainer benchmark to 375 to pick up the honest super trainers while some of these 400+ trainers fade to black with their trick or treat bags being checked.

I have to ponder if certain vets are not in cahoots with the drug and milkshake guys. Trainers are usually not usually educated men, certainly not in bio-chemistry!

[tomcat]

Jerry, it looks as if I keep the selections on Mike >100 it seems to improve the win%, of course the number of plays go down.

I'm looking at your original query, + Mike>100.

[ggpagels]

Tomcat-You lost me on that one. What is "Mike"? :confused:

[hurrikane]

gg. Mike is a funny guy from Ohio.

the Mike number was some combination of POW and PER I believe. It was on the old tomcat dos progam.

[ggpagels]

Thanks, 'kane. You saved me hours of looking through past newsletters. :D

[MikeDee]

It is 52 % of nkrat plus 48% of nPSCN, then reranked. Tom and I used it with the old HTR back when K was an integer and it had ties. Combing the the 2 and ranking them rarely had any ties. Tom started to call it the Mike No. and still uses it to this day. I have not studied a for a long time.

[hurrikane]

well, now you know how well my memory is :rolleyes:

[Huguenot]

Do we have an update on this angle for 2005?

TRN>= 400 or TRN>= 375??

[ggpagels]

01/01/2005 thru 10/24/2005

nTRN>=400
rTRN=1
nLAY between 28 and 90
nCLA<>3
nPUR>=10
nTRCH 1 or 2

Plays 489
Win 28.4%
ROI $.88
Ave Price $6.17
High Price $32 .60

nTRN>=375
rTRN=1
nLAY between 28 and 90
nCLA<>3
nPUR>=10
nTRCH 1 or 2

Plays 644
Win 28.6%
ROI $.89
Ave Price $6.20
High Price $32.60

The "Milkshake Era" may be over. See KM's post today about the Beyer article.

[hurrikane]

I have some tests on trns between 250 and 350 with some good results.

don't have them on this computer. These guys fly under the radar and with a little research you can find the live ones...