MSW three year olds

[ggpagels]

OK-I'll jump in. I started this research because of KM's article in the HTR Feb. 2004 newsletter.

nDist<8
nCLA=3
nAGE=3
nPURS>=10
nLAY>0
nWKSC>=80
rWKSC=1
nDATE between 01/01/2004 and 06/01/2004

Bets 108
Wins 30
Pct 27.78%
ROI $1.79
Ave Mutual $12.92
Highest Mutual $83.00
ROI without highest mutual $1.42

Will it repeat in 2005? I hope so. :D

[km]

Great longshot spot play Jerry, thanks for breaking the ice in this new forum.
Keep em comin.

[tomcat]

Jerry, would keeping FR1 between 1 and 5 help your play any?

[hurrikane]

nice one Jerry,

is the nPUR an effort to keep the smaller tracks out of the play?

[hurrikane]

unfortunately it seems the same timeframe last year produced

252 races
453 tot win

.90 ROI.

it is running strong this year though. Might be worth investigating why...

[ggpagels]

'kane- Yes, nPUR is for screening out small tracks but since I don't have any in my database when I run the query I get the same result without it. If anyone has small tracks in their database they might investigate if that is relevant. I had a $.89 return on my 2003 database with the query but since I was new to HTR in early 2003 the tracks in my database were not complete. I would be interested in any 2002 results if anyone has a database back that far.

[ggpagels]

Tomcat- Not much change with F1 rankings added to the query. There were 7 fewer plays and win was still 27% and ROI was $1.77. If you drop the WKSC rankings and add the F1 rankings win drops to 13% and ROI to $.85 but that is due mainly to betting multiple horses in every race.

[tomcat]

Jerry, got to tinkering with with this again, I got better results making wk>82 and f1 between 1 and 5.

[tomcat]

Has anyone played around with last race bad using hx5? I find the in and out pattern interesting.

[ggpagels]

3 year old MSW results first quarter 2005

114 plays
27 wins
23.68% win
$1.09 ROI
$70.60 high mutual

Unfortunately without the $70.60 winner on 1/09/2005 at HOU the ROI is $.78 :(