negative elliminations

[Lee Carson]

I found a formula which with 30,325 plays only had a win of 10% an ROI of .71 and an IV or.83
Now, the question is, How to use this info? Does this not imply that the other 90% of the horses are potential winners? (of course, allowing for lots of other wasy to lose) How caan this info be incorporated in Access, Or has it any value towards a reductive approach?
Lee

[km]

That's a great avatar Lee, 'Access' pounding the user, instead of the other way around. Donnie ought to use that for his classes.

The negative information is only worthwhile for low odds horses. Awhile ago on this board we had some posts that showed the KLine >= 99 won about 1% with an ROI about 0.50. Pretty bad, yet how useful is it?

Another example, FTS overall have a terrible win rate and low ROI. But the problem is that many FTS run in the same race. Only one of them can win, all the others will be losers and distort the statistics. This is dilemma with using criteria that will select multiple horses, be careful of that.

Most of the horsed in your sample and the ones above were probably unplayable at first glance anyway, the vast majority had little chance of winning, so there is no real help to the horseplayer in finding large bunches of losers unless the odds were low.

You need to do one of two things with that data. Find out if there is anything in common among the 10% that did win. With obvious negative criteria, the public will not be betting those horses, perhaps there is some way to make lemonade out of that lemon.

In the search for negatives, use actual favorites, MLO fav or MLO or actual odds < 3 to look for eliminations that are meaningful. This is the most important answer to your question.