Bad Favorites

[Victor]

Anyone using Access to choose statistically bad favorites?

My database shows rMLO=1 becomes the actual betting favorite in 66% of all races. Regardless, if we look at all rMLO=1 horses, they win about 31% of the time, for an overall loss of about 19.5% on amount bet. If we add the criteria of rF1>=5, the win% drops to 25.5% and the ROI is -25.5%

About 1/3 of all races have rMLO=1 and rF1>=5

I'd like to find extreamely poor favorites and then bet against them.

[Victor]

Here's another one,

rMLO=1 and rPfig>=5
win% is 18.2 and ROI is -35%
This happens in about 1 in nine races.

In 1/22 races, the rMLO=1 is rPfig>=5 and rF1>=5
win% is about 15
and ROI is -39%
about half of these were the actual betting favorite, and they won 19% BUT--
their ROI was -47% :)

[Victor]

in one out of 55 races, the rMLO=1 horse is NOT a TLC contender.
They win 12.5% of their races, with ROI -45.4%

They were only in the money 38% of the time!
(The group all rMLO=1 finish in the money about 65% of the time.)
nEXA and nTRI payoffs were BIG.

About 1/3 of these were nAODD=1 and they only won 15% of the time,
ROI was -57%.

[Victor]

rMLO=1 and nCONT=0

Total Bets 34
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 68.00 68.00 68.00
Wins 5 12 13
Pct. 14.71% 35.29% 38.24%
Amount Won 41.60 55.60 42.30
Profit/Loss -26.40 -12.40 -25.70
Pct Profit Loss -38.82% -18.24% -37.79%
Avg. Payout 8.32 4.63 3.25

But that didn't stop "them" from making 13 of these the actual favorite!

Total Bets 13
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 26.00 26.00 26.00
Wins 2 6 6
Pct. 15.38% 46.15% 46.15%
Amount Won 6.60 21.80 16.90
Profit/Loss -19.40 -4.20 -9.10
Pct Profit Loss -74.62% -16.15% -35.00%
Avg. Payout 3.30 3.63 2.82

The exotic payoffs are interesting:
In only 34 races there were 4 trifectas over $900
tTRK tDATE nEXA nTRI
CT 09-Jul-04 $73.80 $1,289.20
PEN 07-Jul-04 $168.20 $1,131.20
DEL 06-Jul-04 $185.60 $916.80
LS 05-Jul-04 $67.40 $915.40
CBY 03-Jul-04 $197.00 $713.00
MNR 02-Jul-04 $54.80 $603.20
PLN 03-Jul-04 $38.70 $523.30
FP 08-Jul-04 $129.60 $480.40
WO 09-Jul-04 $51.60 $363.70
FL 06-Jul-04 $64.50 $354.50
MNR 05-Jul-04 $39.20 $311.20
LS 02-Jul-04 $80.40 $303.80
PHA 03-Jul-04 $74.00 $294.40
WO 01-Jul-04 $46.80 $288.40
WO 08-Jul-04 $72.90 $273.30
CT 01-Jul-04 $54.00 $261.00
ARP 04-Jul-04 $48.40 $230.60
CT 02-Jul-04 $38.00 $227.20
AP 03-Jul-04 $95.20 $215.60
CT 07-Jul-04 $86.80 $205.40
ALB 02-Jul-04 $71.40 $200.40
CBY 04-Jul-04 $46.20 $182.40
MNR 09-Jul-04 $31.60 $140.20
PEN 03-Jul-04 $42.80 $134.20
HST 01-Jul-04 $26.50 $125.00
BOI 02-Jul-04 $32.20 $124.60
PLN 07-Jul-04 $35.10 $112.50
PLN 02-Jul-04 $18.80 $71.10
FL 04-Jul-04 $25.20 $69.00
EVD 03-Jul-04 $19.00 $28.20
BEL 03-Jul-04 $12.00 $26.00
CT 09-Jul-04 $234.20 $0.00
GLD 03-Jul-04 $70.80 $0.00
CT 08-Jul-04 $131.00 $0.00

[Victor]

Not sure exactly how to do this, but what if I were to query only those races containing these "bad favorite" horses?

[lindsayj62]

For what it's worth, here's one I use to find false low morning line types. This is from the HTR4MSA export so there is no way to get the rMLO. It uses PL5.

nMLO<=3.5
nHTR<=44

In my one year database there are 11,577 such qualifiers with 1646 wins = 14.1%.

[Victor]

Hi lindsayj62

Are these numbers from 2003 or do you currently export with HTR4MSA Emulation? I have a complete HTR4MSA Emulate table beginning with 2/25/04 (I deleted my older ALL_MSA table because I needed the space). Currently, I link HTR4MSA 2004 and DOS Impact 2004, and the Impact export includes rMLO.

All tracks, all races, since 2/25/04 and ending 7/10/04
nMLO<=3.5 and nHTR<=44

Total Bets 11420
Total Amount Bet 22840
Wins 1868
Pct. 16.36%
Amount Won 15987.20
Profit/Loss -6852.80
Pct Profit Loss -30.00%
Avg. Payout 8.56

Same table(s)
rMLO=1 and nHTR<=44

Total Bets 4791
Total Amount Bet 9582
Wins 930
Pct. 19.41%
Amount Won 6715.90
Profit/Loss -2866.10
Pct Profit Loss -29.91%
Avg. Payout 7.22

and in the show position,

Total Bets 4791
Total Amount Bet 9582
Show 2427
Pct. 50.66%
Amount Won 7566.40
Profit/Loss -2015.60
Pct Profit Loss -21.04%
Avg. Payout 3.12

[hurrikane]

Simple and happens often.

rMLO = 1 rKrat > 2 19%

less often
rMLO = 1 rKrat > 4 13%

[Victor]

July 10th through July 15th

rF1=1

Total Bets 1167
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 2334.00 2334.00 2334.00
Wins 221 396 533
Pct. 18.94% 33.93% 45.67%
Amount Won 1842.60 2005.30 1945.70
Profit/Loss -491.40 -328.70 -388.30
Pct Profit Loss -21.05% -14.08% -16.64%
Avg. Payout 8.34 5.06 3.65

however, in Bad Favorite Races type 4, that is, those races where the rMLO=1 horse is also nCONT=0

and once again looking at rF1=1

Total Bets 23
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 46.00 46.00 46.00
Wins 6 8 9
Pct. 26.09% 34.78% 39.13%
Amount Won 66.00 39.40 40.90
Profit/Loss 20.00 -6.60 -5.10
Pct Profit Loss 43.48% -14.35% -11.09%
Avg. Payout 11.00 4.93 4.54

[Huguenot]

Victor,
I don't use Access, but what does nCONT=0

Does CONT stand for contenders? Does this mean the ML fav is not a contender in TLC? By what barometer?

thanks!!

[Rick]

According to the HX4.txt file nCONT is defined as:

124 "nCONT" 1 = TLC Contender (*); (K >= 100 PDif <= 4)

[Huguenot]

That's an "OR" correct, rather than an "AND" to qualify as contender?

[Rick]

I don't use it but I am pretty sure it is an OR.

[tbrown]

It's an "or" and a pretty powerful contender selector.
I include it in my track profiles.

[Victor]

Bad Favorite Races "Type 4"

8/21/03 through 8/02/04

rFR1=1 or 2
and nWKSC>=85

Total Bets 125
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 250.00 250.00 250.00
Wins 28 44 58
Pct. 22.40% 35.20% 46.40%
Amount Won 372.20 294.90 267.40
Profit/Loss 122.20 44.90 17.40
Pct Profit Loss 48.88% 17.96% 6.96%
Avg. Payout 13.29 6.70 4.61

All races, same query, same time frame:

Total Bets 8094
WIN PLACE SHOW
Total Amount Bet 16188.00 16188.00 16188.00
Wins 1669 2964 3826
Pct. 20.62% 36.62% 47.27%
Amount Won 14973.20 14577.00 13472.10
Profit/Loss -1214.80 -1611.00 -2715.90
Pct Profit Loss -7.50% -9.95% -16.78%
Avg. Payout 8.97 4.92 3.52