arlington

[ronnie h]

what is the best route to take from lex ,ky to arlington race course thinking thinking about the arlington contest also what is the travel time.

[Donnie]

ronnie...go to www.mapquest.com and enter in your info....all those questions can be answered there. Maybe we'll hook up with you there....

[ronnie h]

fax my entry form in 9-17 is there a motel close to arlngton

[Donnie]

Yeah Ronnie..there is one right there, less than a block from the track....will post the info on it tonight....unless anyone beats me to it!

[km]

Don Marconi and TommyC have decided to take a shot at Arlington qualifier. I'm sure Aces Ramos is going; and what about DavenT and Tomcat? Chime in here if you are going to ChiTown on Sept 27. What is the format and typical qualifying point totals? Which tracks are they taking? Be prepared - become aware of whether or not most of the horses paying over $15+ are top4 (K) or not. If yes, your task is simplified. If not, what factors are there that will predict a longshot that is outside the top4 (K)?

I was involved in the FPX tourney last weekend. Almost 90% of all winners at FPX are in the top4 (K), so I bought two entries and played the best two overlays among that group in each contest race. 14 of the 16 contest races (all from FPX) were won by the top 4 K and I amassed a lot of points. But there were two bombs (not top 4 K) during the weekend also, won by the same jockey, and those players that used him both times were the winners. Better lucky than smart.

[Donnie]

I, as well, am making the journey to AP for their qualifier ($11K first prize ain't a bad incentive either!). The format is rather unique in that there are only 12 races used...6 mandatories from AP (closing night!! YIKES! Will probably be longshot city!) along with 6 from either AP, CRC, BEL or Turfway, your choice to mix and match. You must bet $10 in each contest race. If you bet less, you are disqualified...if you bet more, you are disquailified....even if you leave the building during the tournament, you are disqualified (I am NOT making that up!!). You may split your $10 per race among multiple horses, all bets must be either win or place....so I can go $5 to win on 2 horses in one race, or $5 to win and place on one horse, or $5 to win on one horse and $5 to place on another, etc etc etc. Cost is $150 entry if you are not a Twin Spires member, $100 if you are...you can sign up on line before you enter. They expect a sell-out and may have already reached the max of 200 entries. I am in for 2. If you miss a bet on one of the mandatory races you are disqualified. 20-1 cap on win, 10-1 cap on place. If you have not yet entered you may call them and sign up over the phone. 847-385-7765 I would not hesitate a day if you are interested in entering! Should be a good time....guess I will have to look for all the laptops! Am trying to get Tommy to swing up to Des Moineson his way....dunno if that is gonna happened!

Ohhhh oneother thing....they say that you will get addmission, food coupons, and premiums that retail for more than your entry fee...so I guess I got that going for me!!:D

[Donnie]

Ronnie---
Sheraton Chicago Northwest...847-394-2000....located right next to the track

[km]

Excellent reply Donnie-thx. Strict contest. "if you take a pee, you are dq'd", "if you pick your nose you are killed" , Hail Hitler !

Just 12 contest races --- this means one bomb and that does it. Those who hit the bomb will battle it out for the prizes, no other way around it. You would have to hit 3 $15 winners to out-point the guys that hit the one $42 cap winner -- not likely No wasting time on place or show either. This is a contest for the brave and the lucky, mostly lucky.

These one day events, that focus primarily on the host track, tend to be won by locals. This has become a stronger trend over the years with the NTRA tourneys. Despite 80 'out-of-towners' that competed in the 12-ball at EMD, all 12 spots were taken by players living in the immediate area. The TUP contest is a key exception, but this is because the entry fee is $300 and that is more than local players in Phoenix want to spend, so most of the entrants are from outside the area. And then there is Prairie Meadows - not likely to see too many from outside Iowa try to take on 100 locals like Don and Suze Nadermann's in the future. Same goes for FPX contest this last weekend - you are wasting your time trying buck heads with 50-80 veteran SoCal players -- we have been going to the fair for 20 years or more. Instincts are far stronger for neighborhood horseplayers. I would wager that the qualifiers from the AP tourney will all be from the Chicago area. Nevertheless, I hope all 4 spots are taken by HTR users in a shocking upset!

[Cliff]

All,

May pack up and make the drive down to Retama for their qualifier on the 27th. Only one day and only 2 spots. Pretty decent prize money, though. 15 $2W/P bets on Bel, Crc, and Del. Will need to turn that $60 into roughly $160ish. Yikes....could be tough but someone manages to do it every year. Any advice on those tracks, strategy, trainers, etc. greatly appreciated.

Cliff

[100Aces]

Hello Boys,

I am elated to hear there will be so many familiar faces at the AP tournament.

If you are staying at the Sheraton ask for a room with a view of the track. The hotel is situated a stones throw from the mile chute. If you are driving you will take the route 53 exit north off the I90 tollway. From 53 take Euclid Ave east exit. It is not far so stay in the right hand lane. Be ready to exit. The hotel and track will be on your left with the hotel in view as you come off the ramp onto Euclid.

Last year, with 150 entries, they had only four tellers accepting contest wagers. Don't let yourself get shut out. Don't assume us locals have the advantage. With the tools HTR gives us I always feel like I have an edge. Last year second place was taken by a fellow from Kentucky. It's always nice to hit an odds-capper but, it ain't the be all, end all. I hit one last year but it was only good enough to secure a tie for third place. It turned out to be the tie breaker.

Donnie, three pages of contest rules seems excessively strict. But, double check your copy of rules. It says if you leave the grounds you cannot come back to place a wager. You are not disqualified if you leave the building. In fact, you can place all your wagers at the start of the contest and leave if you wish. You do not have to be present to win. But, why would you want to leave anyway? This is too much fun.

KM, did your mother not tell you not to pick your nose in public? Really, you should be DQ'd!

Let's go get em' Boys!

[km]

Ramos you tournament maven - I wish I was coming just to sit with you again. You and me with those binocs - like a couple of peeping toms. Hope you get the money my friend.

Bomb = horse that pays about $35 or higher.

But Bob, you DID DROP A BOMB last year and qualified. Without the bomb, would you or any of the other 3 qualifiers have made the final 4? No way. Sure, you needed more points than that to get your spot, obviously, but the bomb was the key. That's my point, if you don't hit a bomb, you probably won't qualify this time either. Same thing happens at almost every short tourney. While one big winner alone rarely gets the cash; 5 winners without the bomb will rarely beat a player with 2 winners + the bomb. At the Orleans - you need a minimum of 3 bombs to win it.

Best factors for BOMBS in HTR = assuming odds 15/1 or more

=Wk rating 80 or more, particuarly for layoff 28+
=FR1, especially if shock speed or Lone speed in race
=Live+ if layoff < 30 and combined with some other positive performance factor
=nVEL 1-2 when combined with either Lv-1 or A/P within .40 of the highest (KM Screen)
=K3 or 4 (rare to get a payoff of $40 or more though)
= E/P 1 or 2, when nVEL = 1 or 2, non maiden races
= FTS with 400+ PED and workout 80+ (don't concern with trainer)

Turf claimers are at the top of the list for bomb production.

[Donnie]

Bob-
here's the rule---
"If a contestant leaves the grounds of Arlington Park after checking in, that contestant may not place contest wagers upon returning. "

here's my intepretation---
You do not place 12 picks, you are disqualified. This holds you in the building until you are done picking! Interesting rule...some people from AP must have left the winning horses out in their car in years past....? Or possibly at home? :D

Should be a good one though.

May I impart a bit of wisdom that I have gathered from tournaments gone by? I agree you must have the longball horse...at PRM this past tournament, the top 6 of us were the only ones with the only capper in the field. But in the mandatory races, if I see a horse who (here's the qualifier) I believe is unbeatable, even at 8-5, I will play him. If my convictions are strong on this horse and it is a race EVERYONE must play, then I would rather take the $9 for the win/place than the $2.40 for the place on a longball because the favorite won the race. We settled for a number of those at PRM in the mandatories....without those $9 horses we wouldn't have been within striking range at the end and we would have been playing the Hail Mary in the end. I think that Luck and Smarts have a lot to do with each other in tournament play. You gotta know when Smarts prevail over Luck and you hope you get Lucky when you need it.

[km]

This turned out to be a really good thread considering it started with Ronnie asking for directions to Arlington!

Bingo Donnie - well said. Methink Donnie should also make himself available as a "tournament coach" as well as an Access instructor.

Now how about this issue - how to play your two (or more) entries in the tourney.

Method1) alternate from one entry to the other until something hits. This is the classic approach used by most players. With double the chances to hit a bomb, you fire away with both entries until the bomb hits. Now you have a strong ticket to play from. The zero entry continues to fire away at bombs, while the "good" ticket can play more logical horses at lower odds trying to pad the total.

Method2) Play the same horses on both entries. This was the approach used by Len Friedman (sheets fame) to win the SunCoast last year. He played both his entries with the same picks, hit a few and was in good shape on the final day with two contending tickets. This method requires that you have some luck early though, otherwise you are stuck with two "bad" tickets that both need hail marys.

Method3) Play ticket1 until depleted, then move on to ticket2. If there are 50% mandatory races or more in the contest, this method is not logical. But assuming that you have 100% optional plays, you would begin firing with your first entry, once it is out of plays, you move onto the 2nd one. This method takes advantage of hot and cold streaks which is usually the case for most players. The hope is that if you get hot, all the winners end up on the same ticket. But if you start off very cold for the day, and have no winners on the first entry, you have a fresh ticket now available with all the bullets ready to go for the rest of the day.

Me been thinking about Method3 for the Orleans. My problem in tournaments lately is that I have been scoring lots of points, but having the points divided among two or more entries and then not having quite enough points on either ticket to get the money.

[Donnie]

Ken-
I think the word "conviction" is a heavy word in tournament play. Obviously, we played two entries in June and when I was solid on a particular horse, we put that horse on both tickets. We moved both tickets up at the same time by putting the same $18 horse on both entries. We also had a couple of $9 horses that I felt couldn't/wouldn't lose. Those went on both tickets as well. When I was undecided, I let Sue pick which of the two she wanted on her ticket. She got the $25 winner, I got the "also-ran". I then continued to look for opportunties where we would be using the same horse, but value plays went onto her ticket when I was split between 2. Both tickets continued to move up, but that "bomb" made it impossible for me to catch her or the leader...I finished with a ticket somewhere near 12th or 13th, and of course Sue finished 2nd....not bad out of 71 players. But when you hold conviction on a horse, if you trully believe the stars are aligned properly and the tides are ebbing right, then that horse has to be on both tickets. When in doubt, those are probably good races to "swing" in. I have noticed that the VI is pretty good in steering me off the lower price horses in lower VI races.

I too have been looking for value in my top 4 off my sheets, much like you are looking within the top 4 K horses. One thing I noted....don't know if this has to do with the time of year (focus is off the 3 yr olds, leading trainers have hit their needed numbers for the year, or the summer meets are winding down).....many times the trainer with the lowest % at the distance/surface has had the winning horse, all other things being equal, and at nice prices......out of my top 4 that is.

Don't think I could be a "tournament coach"...have whiffed too many opportunties that I should have nailed....ohhh well, they'll probably run some more horses tomorrow!

One of these days I will join you Big Boys in Vegas and go for some real money. Right now, I'm just a squirrel trying to find a nut! :D

[burk]

Ken,

As I remember from the 1940's movies, it was "Heil Hitler."

Wes

[km]

Correction noted Wes - and don't forget to click those heels:D

[JimW]

I am going to be in Chicago over the weekend. I'm thinking about going to the Arlington Race Track on Saturday. I will pay the $150 and enter the tournament as a last minute entry if they have any spots open. I think they have a train from Chicago out to Arlington. I do not have a laptop computer however and will not be able to get the HTR race files. I would like to be able to get the Arlington and Belmont files for that day. If anyone thats going could help me out I would appreciate it. Thanks

Jim Walsh

[Donnie]

Jim-
I just checked my bank account and it appears they charged me for 4 entries....it's double the charge coming out of my account. I doubt very highly they will have any walkins available, but you never know. I am going to call them on the over-charge tomorrow....I will ask how full they are and post it here tomorrow. If they gave me 4 spots, you want me to reserve one in your name? (you are allowed only 2 entries per person) Anyone else? Something tells me I have 4 entries, but I couldbe wrong!:D

[km]

Jim, it sounds like you are referring to this coming Sat (Sept 20). The AP tournament takes place on Sept 27. But if you are going to the tournament for sure, send me the hotel fax number and I'll get you the reports you want, but keep it to a small number, maybe 3 sheets per card. If you need more HTR pages, then Donnie or Bob Ramos can help you get printouts.

Donnie, I have been double charged many times at tournament on the credit card. Almost every time they chargeback the 2nd fee a few days later. Not sure why this happens, but they usually correct on there own. In fact this just happened with the Orleans charges. But if you really do end up with 4 entries, I'll send you the money for one of them and get involved via email picks or something.

[dougc]

Ken,

Realize that if you play method 3, you will have to show up earlier that Post Time at Santa Anita in order to have 24 races to shoot at!!!!

[JimW]

Donnie - I am going to be in Chicago on the 27th for the contest. I just called Arlington and they are full. They do have a waiting list and I am number 4 on it and they are optimistic that I will get a spot. Donnie if you do have an extra spot I will take it.

Ken - I appreciate the offer to fax me the HTR information. I am going out to Arlington to see the track even if I dont get into the tournament. If you could just send me the TLC (pl5) for Arlinton and Belmont on the 26th for the 27th I would really appreciate it. I will e-mail you the hotel fax number once I find it. Thanks

Jim

[km]

Doug, just for you, I'll show up early - maybe 11:30am. But it will cut 1/2 hr off of my swimming pool time!

JImW: No go on 2-tracks TLC for faxes to a hotel. That's about 20 pages, would be a mess to fax and they'll cut it off anyway. Limit the incoming hotel fax to about 6 pages maximum. Choose the KM or Prog screen or the CARD or LONGSHOT printouts. If you need the TLC, then contact Donnie or Bob Ramos (100 ACES)- offer to buy them dinner or something and I'm sure they'll help you out. They are very generous people.

[100Aces]

JimW,

AP/BEL TLC PL5 for the 27th - no sweat. Just let me know how to get in touch with you.

[ronnie h]

donnie i ,am on the waiting list if you can i will take any reaerve

[JimW]

100 Aces - Thanks for the offer Bob. If I could meet you at Arlington in the Starting Gate Theatre on Sat morning and get the TLC sheets after scratches that would be great. If I cannot get into the tournament I'd like to at least make a few bets, watch the tournament, and root you guys on.

Ken- Thanks anyway. Looks like I am all set. I'm going to have to get a laptop soon.:)

[km]

JimW - Ramos will take good care of you, and if you do get into the contest, watch him work, he's one of the best.

Donnie -- looks like you have more than enough company for your extra entries. I'll pass on buying in as a surrogate. Maybe you should just cancel the ones in Suzie's name (she can't qualify anyway) and allow those people (Ronnie and JW) on the waiting list to move up and get those spots, leaving you with two "Don Nadermann" chances. Hope you get "deuce" (second spot for NTRA) by finishing 4th or better at AP........

What is not reported by the DRF/NTRA and kept quiet about the championship tournament is that there are many "dueces" involved. Joe Hinson has qualified, but so did his step-daughter in the GP contest, believe me he plays all the tickets. He went for a 3-ball at the recent Reno contest using wife name and will certainly try again. At the National Orange Show contest, a husband and wife finished one-two, guess who played both entries? Last year, Wolfson Sr. dragged his son Jr. to a qualifier got in twice -- at the finals the son's ticket won the whole thing. I would like to have been a fly on the wall when they had the family discussion about how to split the $100,000 -- since dad did all the handicapping, but Jr. got the check in his name!

[Donnie]

Sorry folks...it was just a case of double billing, they did not have me set up twice. Good luck to those of you on their wait-list....hope something opens up!

[Donnie]

Ken-
we didn't buy any in Sue's name this go-round. She prefers to stay home and finish some of the house projects we have started but never finished. The qualifiers for us is for the trip to Vegas and the Big Dance, not really for the money. We would love nothing better than to have 2 shots at the $100K. At PRM Round 2 she wanted to see how she would do just picking names (not very well I must say) so we entered her for fun ($50.....all day entertainment!!). The "duece" effect is real strong in online contests. One of the online contests posted the entire field in a table, so I downloaded the table, dropped it into Excel and then sorted by last name....you were in the minority if your last name didn't show at least twice!! No wonder they get 3000+ entries.

[km]

Received from Don Marconi; re: AP Tournament Saturday

MANDATORY RACES ARLINGTON RACES 5-10

optional races
ARLINGTON RACES 1-4
CALDER RACES 5-13
BELMONT RACES 3-11
TURFWAY RACES 3-10
6 MANDATORY--- 6 OPTIONAL $ 10 WIN...

A good guess for a qualifying total would be around $250
Good luck to all of you that are competing - please post the results for us here Sat night.

[hurrikane]

KM,

thanks for the input on the mutiple tickets. Cliff and I were talking about this at the Sunland tourney.

And talk about strict. That tournament was a joke.
They had no security. They anouced everyones number and had no password.
You HAD to make all the mandetories or you were dq'd. I had one teller put in the wrong race on a QH race and one ticket was dq'd. Stupid on my part but what a stupid rule.

Good luck all you guys.

Wow, Ken at the tourney before noon. Guess you won't be able to stay up all night playing video poker anymore, eh km

[km]

re: AP tournament - no post yet from our competitors; was hoping one of our guys hit the AP 10th..........

Bomb came on that final race of the tournament - a Fr1 play on the grass that answered the "Hail Mary" with 210 points (capped). After a few 10/1 shots early in the day, there must have been a 2 hour stretch of consecutive chalk winners at all tracks, so it was tough to accumulate points.

1st place: James Coffey; 329pts
2nd place: Judith Gonsoulin; 306
3rd place: John Pappalardo; 301
4th place: Larry Kaplan; 259

My guess was about right with qualifying points needed around 250, just sorry no one from HTR broke through in this one. Donnie, please let us know the story. How many of these 4 qualifiers hit the last minute bomb?



:eek:

[Donnie]

Ken-
You were absolutely right! The first two races at the start of the tournament (optional races) were won by 9-1 shots and if you weren't on them, you pretty much had a tough time of it...lot's of odds on favorites winning yesterday and no real chance to accumulate a lot of points. Tommy had that last horse but it was on the "wrong" ticket. I think any one of us would have qualified had we put that one horse on the "right ticket". Ramos keep getting his 15-1's nosed out at the wire, and when you are chosing $10 to Win and no place betting, that wasn't doing anybody any good. By looking at those winning numbers, all you really needed was that one bomb and just about ANY other winner.... to get qualified....alas it needs to be on the right ticket tho.

Was a fun time and worth the drive....well run tournament and they updated the standings about every other race ...but when you don't hit a horse until your 8th bet, what's the use of looking at the totals?? It came down to swinging and hoping at the end. Nice to see that there were still a lot of people cheering on those 4/5 shots as they crossed the wire, though! Gives a guy hope to return another day! :D