Follow request for Mike's query about track specific plays

[Carl]

Mike,

About two months back or so, we had a discussion about a spot play that you had that was performing well ROI wise at MNR and not so well at RD (although the win percentages were similiar, within a point or two as I recall). The average pay at the time was around $13 for MNR, $9 for RD.

You had an excell file you posted with this. Do you recall the series of posts I am talking about?

I predicted that this would turn around over the next couple of months, and that "regression to the mean", as Ken puts it, would cause RD to become the profitable play and MNR would go into the tank.

How was my guess? Update please.

later,
Carl

[MikeDee]

I'll check it out and post a spreadsheet. I have removed any tracks in that orginal post that are dark but it will be interesting to compare. I know that mnr has not done as well so you can say that it is regressing to the mean, but RD I think is still pretty ugly. Could be that RD is the mean that the others are regressing to......we'll see.

[MikeDee]

here it is

the first of number is up to 5/1/01 the second set is 5/1/01 thru 7/8/01

It is for the tracks that are currently running since I have taken the ones that wer in the orginal but are ot dark

[hurrikane]

there could be other reasons too.

1. MNR for the first 3 mo of the year was very wet..
2. Everything in Ohio has been wet since a couple months ago..I have a feeling Noah lives out there.

3 MNR just started running turf faces..don't know if you exclude them from the spot play or not.

4. Someone mentioned and I have noticed an influx of ohio horses at MNR. If these are better quality horses(and I'm not saying they are) they could cause an abberation in you're testing.

5. A spot play I have at MNR was kicking butt for 4 months. For the last 4 weeks it was a loser but in the last week it won big and brought the numbers back in line with how it had been running before. Maybe the data sample is too small to even out the swings in a spot play(or make it a valid play in the first place).

Just a few ideas I thought I would throw out there.

[MikeDee]

The races in the study are fast dirt all except races with any FTS are excluded.

Because of the impact of slots on the purse money TDN has become the off site barn for MNR. Many trainers are just meeting the min requirements to keep stalls at TDN and hauling their runners down to MNR to run for the real money.

I think that if the attitude by the state government toward slots at tracks does not change, we are seeing the beginning of the end for any racing in Oh. It is interesting that Oh faces a court ordered huge increase in school funding so rather then allow slots they are increasing the take.....

[hurrikane]

Mikee....sounds like Maryland. May soon the be beginning of the end..if not already there.

[tomcat]

Here are 2 easy spot plays:

1. J1+ K1=2. How hard is that. Doesn't pay much but has high %. Good for use with P3's, P6's,etc.

2. Vi + Down in Class...the old stand by. Set a standard of what odds you'll take to play it. Some tracks have good %, some not. I like Churchill.

[hurrikane]

tomcat,
thanks, going to take a look and see if I can't fit these into some exotics with some longshot plays I have. Is the second one Vel #1 drop in class?

Also, using TLC last night I noticed in HTR a horse was rated -9 in pDiff and -4 pDiff in TLC. Any ideas on that? I'm find the race and post in later.

[tomcat]

no ideas, but ask Ken, he wrote it. PPscan dif should be the same in both.