Laurel Park Qualifier.

[hurrikane]

Yesterday was the NTRA qualifier at Laurel Park in MD.
Much to my surprise...there was team HTR on site.
Sue and I arrived and set up then
Gus (aka BillW), Don Marconie and Gary showed.
It was a live bankroll tourney with a 200.00 bankroll playing across 4 trks PIM, AQU, DEL, and CD.
So of course...it was raining. 3 tracks were sloppy and scratches were taking their toll.

3 players busted out of the gate early hitting a 17-1 shot at Churchill in the 3 rd.
The leader board read

Don Marconie
Sue Elbertson
Greg Parrott

seperated by about 20 bucks.

It hung in that order for about half the day and that was as good as it would get for team HTR.


Then someone hit a nice one and poped 1st place to 1800.00
This guy, thinking he had won it, sat on that lead the rest of the day. I'm not even sure he made anouther bet because that total never moved.

At the beginning of the last race the leader board totals were

1st...1800.00
2nd..1080.00
3rd..987.00

All the races were running concurrently with the races only minutes apart. At first I was a little worried about that and getting locked out. Turned out after the Orleans, only 4 tracks to watch was a piece of cake. But because of this the last race came down to the one track that had 10 races yesterday. PIM It was the last and only race running

Everyone on team HTR had been fading during the day or hanging on at thier earlier success.
Gus was picking up some late money but it's hard to play catch up in this type of tourney.
I luckily caught a 10-1 with 20 bucks and a 18-1 that placed. I had 100.00 win and place on him. Paid 10.00 to place.
So somehow I was about 860 going into the last race a PIM. Short field, sloppy track, and a strong favorite.
It looked like the favorite had a weakness though and I was ready to pounce. One of these lucky horses was going to get 400.00 of my money on thier back. It was just a question of which one.

Well, I zigged with 400.00 on the 4 horse while the eventual winner was zagging with 400 on the 6.
Zagging was the move. The 6 won at 7-1 paying this lady, and the repeat winner from last year, 18.40 or 3600.00 to catapult her into first place.

Final leaders

1st 3,978.00
2nd 1,854.00
3rd 1,804.00
4th 1496.00
5th 1,485.00

Bummer. Thing is, even in this short field..I didn't even have the 6 on my radar. If anyone wants to look at the 10 at PIM yesterday and tell me what she (and a few others in the house) saw in this horse I'd appreciate it.

There was some grumbling about this last race winner but I'm not so sure you can do anything about it. Only solution would be to limit the number of races or fix the amout of the bet. Not so sure that is the solution. These types of tourneys are pretty much the real deal. You're playing with your money. If you want to throw out your bankroll firing on last shot then go for it. It is one hell of a gutsy move that most would not make.

I'm thinking if I could have seen anything in the 6 horse...I would have even played 400.00 on the 4 and the 6. I didnt really come there to win 200 bucks. I want an entry.

It was a lot of fun. Great to see the old guys (sorry Don) and meet some new ones.

The mission continues. Good luck to everyone taking a shot yesterday. Hope we all make it to the Championship.

[tomcat]

Sounds to me you did pretty good hurricane, keep up the good work!

[km]

Thanks for the news on the LRL tourney Hurrikane! I'm glad that Gus and Don were able to hook up with you and Sue.

Bankroll money contests are unpredictable; like big poker game; inevitably someone wins it with a smashing "all in" play near the end. Ernie and I were partners in a money contest in Reno in which the format allowed any type of wager. Some guy won it by betting his entire remaining bankroll on a cold trifecta and it came in. In the FPX money contest one year, a guy won it by hitting the pick-6. Better lucky than smart, but in order to get into position to make such flamboyant wagers, you need to be pretty skillful at building up the bankroll from the beginning.

[Donnie]

Hurrikane...are you into Sheets analysis?


Hindsight being what it is....the 6 horse 6 races ago hit 24 as his new "tops"...regressed for 2 races then came back with a new top, 21....since his regressions where not very terrible either time, one could possibly hope he would come back with a new lifetime top again, since he regressed slightly after his 21, but again, not too terrible bad. If those tops took a lot out of him the spread would have been larger.....Considering that he should maybe move forward off his last top by maybe 2 or 3 points, max, that puts him at an 18 or 19 today......very likely able to win here. When a horse increases like your 4 did, increasing 7 points between two races, that many times means bounce! You want horses to increase in much smaller increments.

I don't know...... just one reason why that 6 "jumped up".

[Victor]

Hurrikane:

"If anyone wants to look at the 10 at PIM yesterday and tell me what she (and a few others in the house) saw in this horse I'd appreciate it."

That would be tough to do Hurrikane, but here's a thought after the fact, so it doesn't count much . . .
10-PIM Sat Apr 26 2003 5.0T 3up NW1 $26000 Par---> 100

Sort--------> <1> <2> <3> <4> <5>
.................................................. ..........................
Pn Horse MLO Ch Lay Level RS eDif eSP--Att--Res Total Trainer--Rtng
.................................................. ..........................
4 Mega Hit 10/1 L2 147 100 P +05 115* 082 057^ 253 Small R 260
6 Thunder 12/1 014 100 *P -05 110^ 090^ 059* 259^ Knisley 091
1 City Blu *5/2 023 099 P -11 103 107* 051 261* Dutrow 543*
7 Uncle Ze 20/1 173 097 S -17 098 090 050 238 Stauffe 099
14 Acceptor 30/1 014 097 S -22 092 086 032 210 Pane Pa 097
12 Tamasuk 9/2 L1 203 P -99 Pino Mi 376^

Thunder is the predicted leader who looks like he'll get the jump on the 4, and beat him to the wire. If you throw out City, it looks like 6 could be the play.

I've been in Football Contests before, and it comes down to week 17: or even the Monday Night Game! You were in a position to compete in that final end game - and you'll be there again.

Victor

[fred4now]

HK, whenever I see an Acl=1 and big class drop I worry. It is an angle that I watch. Doesn't make money on its own but is dangerous to bet against.

Not criticizing at all, you guys that go to the tournaments and put it on the line impress me.

[Victor]

I'll second that Fred4now. The most difficult part is being in the position to win.

Like a Hurrikane!

[hurrikane]

Thanks for the input folks.

F4N...I noticed the ACL drop. 2 races back he was running and losing at this level though so I discounted it. bad move I guess.

Donnie. That's very interesting. I use the sheets but only in a very basic manner. Can you run near par, are you improving or going off form. That's an interesting take you have on it. I'm guessing that is what the others saw as there were plenty of the Rag folks there. Is there a good book on the subject.

Vic...that is interesting. In HTR 2k impact has the 4 horse as taking the lead, a +13 esp, having an advantage in the front and back of the race and no advantage shows on the 6.

Maybe Ken can explain the difference in the impact screens and how they are predicted.

Thanks for the pep talk guys. More importantly thanks' for the insight. Bugs me when a horse wins like that and I don't even have him on the radar.

[Glen]

HTR 2K Impact is PL specific. DOS IMpact is not PL specific.

[Donnie]

Hurrikane---

This is my favorite time of year as you can "see" those same type of patterns happening over and over and over in the 3 and 4 yr old ranks. Young horses mature between 3 and 4...they go from being a tenn to being an "adult". Remember way back when, when that happened to us...we were pretty "full of ourselves"....but more importantly, the body is changing and maturing. The muscles develop and grow. Good horses have a steady advancement to the left on the FIGS2 screen. There are patterns which Ragozin and Friedman have noted in The Odds Must Be Crazy. I sat down earlier this year and re-read the book for the 4th time and have gotten serious about it's approach....I have never had a year like I have been having so far!....but like most good things, I suspect it will turn sooner or later. At PRM this year we had a contest about every other weekend......my wife won once and I took second a couple times. Pegged quite a few of those double-digit winners by looking at their development cycle over their "form cycle". It's ok to throw in a bad race ot two, the question is "what led the horse to that bad race?" My son is running track right now. First time in the long jump he hit 17'4". Next meet he couldn't break 17'. Last meet he jumped 18'6". Being 14 he is in that transition stage from a teen to a young man.

I have found the tough part is "seeing" and then "beleiving" it will happen today.....I think we are all taught that the horse is only as good as his last race......Raggies take the last race into context with his last 3 or 4, then project where each horse should run today.

I cannot encourage you enough to sit down and give the book an honest read and then re-read it again. You obviously have something good going on right now....you are in contention in a lot of these qualifiers. You will hit one soon or later. Luck is where preparation and hard work intersect. Your day is coming.....either that or Sue's day is coming! :D

[Glen]

Funny you mention that Donnie, I started re reading it on Sat.

[Cliff]

'Kane,

To me, the two horses look very similar on paper IF you eliminate the #1.

First, turf sprints are (at least for me) very difficult to handicap. They almost always have a very high % of longshots come in at LSP. Glen can verify this. There doesn't seem to be a single factor, or two, that you can hang your hat on and bet with consistently in these type races.

Secondly, IF I'd used one factor, to narrow down between the two, I think it would have been the Layoff for the #4. There have been some studies bantered around on these boards that show a definite drop-off in hit rates around 140 or 141 days. (I'm thinking Tom studied this). OTOH, Tommy C. would say that the horse was just "fresh". So take that number lightly.

Thirdly, can almost guarantee that if you use any of these suggestions to narrow down or pick a horse in your next tournament, it won't work that time!

Cliff