The ! factor

[Ron]

I know that the latest version of TLC has been out for a short time, but I'm wondering if any of you have run any queries that may point out the strengths and weaknesses of the various E! and P! spot plays yet?

If so ,..have you seen anything worthy of furthur exploration?

eg: E!\P! and < K5 etc.


Ron

[George]

Hi Ron!
The ! does not exactly correspond with anything we have in the database so can't precisely test it. The 4 or more lengths roughly equates to an nESD of +8 or more.

Have found those to work best at early speed tracks like EVD, MNR, and sometimes PRM (when no headwind..seriously). Best results have been at LESS THAN 6 furlongs and a top 4 trainer as rated by impact trainer number. Top trainer not best return. Look a little further down :)

Think using the above with ! horses would work but have not been able to test it.

[hurrikane]

Agree George. It is closely related to Impact and suspect is comes from the esd factor from the old impact that tlc uses. I is certainly usefull at some tracks and meaningless at others as you can see by Glens pics using the !.

George..how do you know if there is a headwind at PRM..and is that a head wind at the start or finish?

How's your ailment doing? :D

[George]

Donnie taught me the headwind trick. Check the flags and if they are shredding to the right there is a gentle Iowa breeze blowing down backstretch right into the gates. When that is happening early pressers win everything. Front runners die from the headwind.

My w**k problem is getting worse but am planning on being totally cured by year-end.

[Donnie]

Going out to PRM tonight to be the Guest Handicapper....don't know if I will be on the pre-race show on the simul's or not, but if so, be sure to wave!! Also, beware- as most people know, my "public" picks normally finish up the track so I will be giving my list of throw-outs publicly tonight!

Hurrikane--- George is right...if they give you a shot of the flags on either side of the toteboard, when the flags are flying from left to right, the horses run into a headwind down the backstretch. Bet the "off the pace horses". If they are flying from right to left, get your money down on the front runners. The track seems to be playing very fair this year, but F's and R's are doing EXTREMELY poor...throw 'em out! Gonna spend the day capping so I don't look too damned foolish tonight!

BOL all!

[Glen]

Great Donnie, sounds like fun. Does PRM still have a live internet feed? They did last year. If not, I'll can watch on youbet. Hope to see ya there...BTW, is Suzanne gonna be there with ya on TV giving her picks as well?

GO DONNIE!

[hurrikane]

Wow Donnie...didn't know I knew a movie star. Thanks for the input on PRM. What do you when the wind is blowing circular and appears as a funnel? :D

[MtKen]

Hurrikane:

Bet on anything named 'Toto' or 'Dorothy':eek:

[Donnie]

Hurrikane- I normally just kiss my money goodbye...just like any other day! :D (looks like it's gonna be calm tonight!!)

Glen- the one time this year I went out to the Net to see if they had a live feed, they did not. I don't think they are doing that anymore. We cut back on our simulcast schedule in hopes of concentrating on the live crowd, but they haven't really done anything to promote the product locally, so it is a very dismal year numbers-wise. While Sue will be with me, I don't think they will put her on the air. Hoping to get a good word in for HTR! I need an HTR hat though!!! Or maybe an HTR t-shirt! Panties wouldn't work!

MtKen- just picked up a dog from the pound that looks like Toto!! LOL. He's 8 yrs old and deaf! At least he won't hear me sobbing in my bed tonight after my public humiliation! :eek:

BOL to all!

[MikeDee]

I'll be watching you on the 1X1 screen on Youbet too. Don't want to put any pressure on you but I just put a grand from my credit card into my youbet account so I can give your picks the backing they deserve.....don't let me down:)

[MikeDee]

Didn't see you on the stmulcast feed Donnie, guess they didn't want you to show up the local talent. By my count you went 4/9 not to bad!!

[Glen]

Great Pickin Donnie!!! I too watched Youbet video...No Donnie...To bad!

[Donnie]

The goal was to have a higher ROI than either of the two track handicappers...beat one, lost to the other by less than $2. I got back $100 for beating either and the win/place mutuels for my picks-> $34. Total for the night +$134, but I doubt I am high enough to get into the finals! Kind of a chalky night... had 4 wins, 1 place, and had I gone with my second choice in 2 of the losing races.................

Good night, all in all.

[Donnie]

ohhhh BTW....since it was so calm out last night....notice that all but one race was won by one of the top 2 AP ranked horses using PL 5. The track has been running EXTREMELY fair!

The one race that deviated was the 2yr Stakes race where all but one of the horses had run only one race!!

[MtKen]

Good job Donnie.....take 4/9 anyday. Noticed your 15/1 m/l got played pretty hard.

[hurrikane]

Jeezz Donnie...I'll take 4/9 any day..and a >34 profit on $2 bets...go man.

I think you should have went with the HTR panties though. I sure that would have made the satallite feed!!. :D

[Donnie]

sorry, Hurri, I guess I wasn't clear on my post...it wasn't $34 profit. That was the total mutuels returned for a win & place bet on every race..so the actual return was -$2 if I had bet each and every race. The way the contest was set up, you pick one horse in each race, the two track handicappers pick one horse in each race. They go by a mythical $2 win and place bet on each race. If you beat EITHER of the two 'cappers you win $100, plus you receive the winning mutuels to boot! So without putting a dime in, I got $134 back out cause I beat one guy (Ken Miller) by about $20. He had, I think it was, 2 winners all night. The other 'capper, Scott Pope, who is the president of the Iowa Thouroughbred Owners Association, beat me by a couple bucks. If your mutuel returns are one of the 3 highest for the meet, which I am sure mine was not, you are invited back to try for a trip to the Breeders Cup. It was a lot of fun and I am glad Miller had an off night!

Sorry bout the confusion.

Ohhhhh and the panties would have never worked, lessen I stood up in the middle of the broadcast!! LOL

[hurrikane]

still good pickin Donnie. Maybe the panties would have distracted both guys enough you would have beat both. :D