Diminishing returns

[hurrikane]

Reading Georges post on field size and putting all his doughnuts in one cart. I've lately been curious about deminishing returns. Wondering at what point does betting a long shot bring his odds down to where the risk reward becomes inverted. Just a brain itch at this point but some of these long ones I"ve wanted to hit hard but wondered if I would'nt be better off keeping the odds up and spreading the money over more bets or taking them to the 'Jamacans' as Carl would say.
At what point to you bet too much that the odds come down far enough to make it a diminishing return. Taking into account as much as possible the public seeing the odds drop and jumping on..if that's possible.

Any thoughts.

[George]

Hurrikane....it is fairly easy to estimate impact of a bet on the pool. Wagering 10 percent of current win pool will move your horse down 20 percent if no other bets are made. If there is $100 in win pool, your horse is 40-1, you wager $10 and yours will be 32-1.

Obviously, the larger the pool and the lower your animals odds, the less visible impact. The percentage is the same, just now you lower a 4-1 to 3-1.

The hard part is the pool is a moving target and there are tote-watchers who will "pile on".
The current influx of late money makes it much harder to really estimate your effect.

In a large handle track like BEL the impact of a $10,000 bet is not very noticeable.

[Glen]

Good Question....Me thinks betting $5 to $10 bucks will destroy the mutuals...Actually, I dunno, but I do know that a lot of us come up w/ the same ponies on the bet of the day thing. If I ever decide to bet large I will heavily consider taking the money to an ESB type outfit. Wish OJC would add a lot more tracks to their stable. Would feel more comfortable w/ those guys.

[George]

Assumed on my prior response everybody knows how to calc the actual win odds. The 10 percent is just a quick "yardstick". Accurate way is to take your hand calculator, add your proposed bet to current amount bet on your horse in pool and pool total. Then divide pool total by total bet on your horse and subtract 1 from answer. That will tell you new odds if nobody else bets at the same time.

The "pile on" effect at small handle tracks can be serious. I have become reluctant to put a serious longshot up on this or any other board after observing some "effects" during our May contest. Think I will post $2.20 show parlay's for a while.

[Carl]

My wakey wakey took place in the fall, when I was up tons and happily running around making $80 win bets.

Happened to chance upon one of those strange turf animals I so like, he was running at REM, so I ordered my $80 dollar win ticket.

Race goes, horse goes off at 25-1, loses. No problem.

After the race, I checked the win pool bets on the race at Philly Park Tote. Turns out there was only $160 bet to win on this animal in total, and so I had bet half that amount! No problem when I lose, but if I would have won I would have cost myself 50% or $4000.

Ouch.

So I don't bet more than $20 (preferably not more than $10) on strange ones at small tracks anymore in the pools, it is easy to cost yourself 10-15% if the horse is in the 20-1 range. And, over the year, that certainly adds up. Don't know what Hurrikane bet on the $45 horsey at FP yesterday, but it wouldn't take much to move that track 20% downward in payout on a strange one. So....

SMALL TRACKS ARE GREAT, BUT STAY OUT OF THE MUTUELS ON LONGSHOTS PEOPLE! IT IS DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH.

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

I only had a 10 spot on him Carl..am afaid to do more than that at small tracks. I wanted to..but was afraid I would hurt myself..or tip the lurkers.

Guess with HTR and these longshot tracks there isn't much to do but go off site. Problem is I can't always call in my bets so I need online site. Trying to work it out...they really discourage betting and gambling at w**k these days...go figure. :D

[MtKen]

I often look at the tote after the race is off, Philly's site is good for this but any tote with pools works. For the math challenged, like myself, you just note the pool total & then the difference in dollars between your longshot & the next lowest odds. @ the smaller tracks, like MNR, an ESB account would be handy but some exacta/tri expertise might be even better. Especially if ESB ever started to protect itself by wagering into these small pools.

[carl mckenzie]

Old rule of thumb I learned back in the early Days of Pirco when I was betting in New Haven Teletheater. They of course would control their own pools and we had to be very careful as to how much was wagered in the WPS pools.

2% always worked very well and would never move the pool as well as keeping the EQUALIZERS out of touch with what I was wagering.

carl mac

[carl mckenzie]

That's 2% of the pool of course. Just to clarify my dah!!!! statement.

carl mac

[Carl]

Hi Carl,

Nice to have another Carl to post too.

About the 2% of pool rule. My take.

Think it works fine for horses under 10-1, but over 25-1 (yes, I like those types, somebody's got to play them) it would hurt you to bet that much.

Easy example, not factoring in track take.
1) $1000 in the pool.
2) My 25-1 horsey has 4% of the pool bet on him.
3) I bet 2% of the present pool on him, $20, he goes up to 6% of the total bet, and his odds drop from 25-1 to 17.5-1.

Pretty ouch, big difference between a horse paying $52.00 (without my 2% of pool bet) and $37.00 (with my 2% of pool bet factored in). Over a year of chasing strange beasts, could easily make the difference between a profit and a loss. Not saying a $20 bet makes a whale, but I will say that at a small track you do cost yourself measurable money IF you are playing longshots "within the pool".

later,
Carl

[carl mckenzie]

Hi Carl,

Nice German name isn't it?

Having read your posting it sent me back to my old Sartin documents not having used that theory for a good many years since the information explosion and the subsequent erosion of the mutual prices.

My statement should have been 2% of your horses total pool not the total race pool.

And of course all those problems go away if you are dealing with the larger pools of the major race tracks.

I know you are well schooled in all of this and only present it for conversation as well as for anyone reading this who may be interested in what we have to say.

Looking at the current odds for Canterbury Downs 7th race there is a total win pool of 1066 with two longshots in the race. Number 2 at 15-1 ($52.00 in pool) and number 4 at 30-1 ($25 in the pool). Even at 1 or 2% these types of pools are very dangerous to try and eeekkkk out a score.

On the other hand in CD's 10th race the win pool was $114,307 with two of the longshots being held at 17 and 20-1. The pools respectively were $5227 and $4395. A $100 win bet in either (or both) of those pools would probably go un-detected by the equalizers.

I was faced with the Canterbury situation a good deal of the time in the New Haven pools and would have to back way off on my normal 60-40 two horse Sartin wager. But those days are long gone for me as is the profitability of two horse wagering.

Carl Mac

[Carl]

Thanks Carl.

2% of the money wagered on the horse itself sounds good. Sometimes I bet with my YOUBET account too, I'll try and stick to those guidelines. No sense betting against myself by cutting my own price if I can help it.

Amazing how small some of these win pools are. And yet I like playing the smaller tracks, find I do O.K. there. Don't know how big that PMR pool was that Ken and George both hit the $161 horsey in, but I am thinking that they were the whales in that pool that day for sure.

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

well, intesting ideas. looking at Carl example, if I have this right...

1000 total pool
40 longshot horse
24-1 odds...1000/40 = 25 minus 1 = 24-1

I put 5 bucks on him
1005 total pool
45 lsh horse
21-1 odds 1005/45 = 22.3333 22-1 = 21-1 odds
horse wins I collect 110.00

I put 20 on horse
1020 pool
60 lsh horse
16-1 odds 1020/60 = 17 -1 = 16-1
horse wins I collect 340.00

so, lets say I have a play that will payout 25% of the time..I need to get 4-1 just to break even..actually more with take and the profit I want. Lets say I want to get 10-1..anyone know a quick way to calc the amount to bet to get to the 10-1 odds...
I know this is in a vacume and probably not feasable or necessary..just have had some places where I am willing to take 8-1 on a horse that is 17-1 and want to pull the trigger without hanging myself. maybe it's not really necessary...I don't know..maybe just trying to make something simple more difficult than it needs to be. Should probably just call the jamacains..just not sure I want the bookkeeping headache.

[MtKen]

Hurrikane:

I checked some pools last night on Philly odds board & CBY had the smallest pools with 7k-8k in the win pool. I would check the Equibase site & check pool size in the charts, least I think they have them. The Ruidoso's, Lincoln State Fair's etc that don't make Philly's board are another story. I wonder what Fairmont's pools are??? If a lot of your horses are paying around $15-$18 you might need some decent wagers to hurt the odds much; definately 3 figs in a 10k pool.

On the other hand another 5% from the Jamaicans wouldn't hurt. I almost signed up yesterday but they wanted me to go through Western Union to make a deposit instead of just charging my credit card. Now I'm waiting 'til I have $ on hand. You get a 10% wager for free based on your 1st deposit so it pays to make a big one....also get 5 or 10% future wager on the Breeder's Cup. Carl also gets 10% of your 1st deposit for signing you so it helps him to make a bigger deposit too.

[hurrikane]

thanks Ken..will have to start following pools a lot closer.

I'm about ready to go with the Jamacains. Just have to get in to a book keeping mindset. Right now it is pretty automated..if I have to call these jokers and do thier job I get nervous. Price of doing business. I think the way to go is out of the pools though. Seems to me they cut some people off for winning too much. will talk more in LV about the rastas and then decide.

[Carl]

Mt. Ken,

I didn't know that I got something based on your first deposit too. Thought I just got $50. Well, 10G deposit from you would be nice then for openers....hehe.

If you don't mind, let me know what they said should go into my account if you do sign up, so I can follow it up. Not that I don't trust them, but....

And just a word of warning, make sure you pin things down with them as to what you are to be bonused, WRITE IT ALL DOWN. Some of the stuff is O.K., I got a free $25 hockey parlay once which netted me $115 for no risk. They always "sorta" give you what they promise, which is to say it may take a follow-up phone call to get what you should. As to putting money into your account, I can just go to a bank here and make a deposit, no charges of any kind and the money shows up on the over night. They may re-imburse you on Western Union charges too, so ask. I have never gone that route, or the credit card one. I just use money orders/bank drafts.

They have a 10% bonus track most days too, that is nice, EVD was on slate a few days back, I had two winners there, it is all "found" money as far as it goes with me and their overpays. In a form letter I got from their manager he said they have to do this kind of thing to compete with the multitude of phone services now offered, and I think he is right.

BTW, I have a question about ESB, I think we have a few users here.

I got a mailer saying they now have "over-under" on wins by a jockey each day as a wager, but I can't find it on their website. For example, they put J. Bailey at 2.5 wins, the over is -200 the under is +150 (this is the example the mailer used). They say it is on their website http://www.telebet.com , but I can't find it. Crapola website they have anyway in my opinion.....

later,
Carl

[fred4now]

Carl, don't know about the over under thing, but last night at 9:30 PST I couldn't get anybody to answer at the racebook and the main number was busy. Missed the post time completly, reall ticked me off till horse ran 2nd. BTW they have been paying the extra 5% on place also.

[fred4now]

P.S. Just got off the phone with them, wanted to know why no answer last night- "It was their day off!"

[Carl]

Fred4now,

Glad it ran 2nd. Cost the morons money hehe.

They can certainly be stupid at ESB, no doubt about it.

Unfortunately, so can the rest of them. Witness Ladbroke/Winticket/OJC/CTOTB doing their "I'll take this track today but not tomorrow" trick. I hate when that happens. And there is no reason for it.

And CTOTB used to not take bets at all last year on BM/GG after the fifth race on Fridays, "it was too late and our office will be closed". So I said "duh, why not just have it on the phone and one yo can relay it in." (Actually miracle of miracles, they started doing that shortly thereafter. I never really minded CTOTB, I just got hooked on the 5% bonusing with ESB and the ease of betting with YOUBET. Think service was better at CTOTB though.)

later,
Carl

[fred4now]

I know we are really in the wrong thread for this, but I also have a pen national telebet acount that I can access online. Same thing though some days they carry a track and others they don't. They told me they can only fit so many on their web page and have to choose. I really like to be able to just punch a button and be confident that wager got in a 1 MTP. Think I will open up one at ehorse just to see what happens, even though i will drop from 5% to 2%.

[Carl]

Another lead to on-line betting I got of off the YOUBET site is

http://www.homewagering.com

Looks like they carry a lot of tracks but it worries me that I couldn't find out who they were and where from on site. Didn't like the 30-1 max on win, but liked that they carried a lot of smaller tracks (they say).

As always, cavat emporator. Anybody knows anything about them (good or bad) please post back.

later,
Carl