Question

[tbrown]

What is the difference between an F and an E horse?
What paceline mode do people find is the best?
I have tended to use 2 but I wonder if 4 or 5 are better predictors? Don't have a big enough model yet to really see a diference.
I was really surprised to see that at Penn, Jock and Trainer ranks were amoung the most potent factors! Eye opening stuff in this program.
I really love the Quirrin style pace and speed numbers in the PP section-and I really love not having to calculate them myself anymore.
Bulldog

[MikeDee]

In Kens list of definitions an F is a horse that always wants and usually gets the lead, does have a lower win% then a E though.

Pace Line selection is always a discussion item here. From past news lettters PL5 will normally have the best win% but may be second to PL1 in ROI. I think most use either pl5 or 1 and some flip back and forth checking for differences in PL1 and 5. As I undeerstand it PL only really apply to the pace related rankings. Does not applly to PPscan, and the fixed numbers like pow, K and per. Should get lots of input on this one.

[Rick]

From the HTR Help File:

+Running Style, Quirin speed points, Early speed(*).

As a serious player your initial step in handicapping any race should be to
ask "who is going to go for and get the lead, and how much pressure will
be on the leaders?". Setting up each horse's probable position early in
the race is fundamental to cashing bets of all types.

HTR provides an array of innovative tools to help you with this critical
part of your handicapping. This material was updated on March 10, 1997
after massive research into running style and early speed analysis.

********
Tool #1: Running Style (RS) Designations
********
The 6 six running styles used by HTR are: F,E,P,S,R

F- Front Only. These horse's win only if they are able to secure the lead.
F types are fast early and must outrun their field. About 10-15% of
runners get this designation. More common in sprints.

E- Early. The E horse runs close to or on the lead, but is slightly more
versatile than the F horse. An E horse can sit slightly off the pace
and still win. About 15-20% of runners get the E.

P- Presser or stalker. Lay about 2-3 lengths from the leaders. Usually
an ideal style in most races. A rateable horse. Common style: 25-30%
of entrants receive the "P".

S- Sustained or mid pack type. Lays further back of the field than the
P (about 3- 6 lengths) and must close more ground late. 25%-30%
of runners fit as an S. More common in Turf and Route races.

R- Always toward the Rear of the field early. This type horse must have
class, a fast pace up front and racing luck to win. Rear runners
total about 10-15% of the entrants. They rarely win.


note: First Time Starters are estimated by their workouts for running
style, and these ratings have proven fairly accurate.

********
Tool #2: Likely race leader.
********
An asterick (*) is used to designate the runner most likely to get the
lead. This is extremely accurate (80-90% actually get the lead) and these
horse's often go on to win (28%). ALWAYS take note of the (*) in every
race you handicap. Ask yourself, "will he get the lead easily?, is there
an abundance of other F and E type horse's to pressure him?", or maybe he
is the speed of speed and will discourage the other front runners and win
in hand. A lone *F or *E in the race is always dangerous.

********
Tool #3: Quirin Speed Points.
********
Designed to help find the race leader and determine early pressure. The
Quirin speed points are NOT good indicators of other running styles. 8 pts.
is the maximum (always shows speed) and 0 is the minimum (a horse who has
never shown any speed). See below for references:

Quirin Speed Points. Please read the 1979 book "Winning at the Races..."
by William Quirin for more info. Steve Davidowitz' updated book also has
a good chapter.

*******
Tool #4 Early speed velocity data. Not elaborated on here.
*******

[Carl]

Hi Tom,

I like that Q-pts are calculated here for you too. I used to spend far too much time figuring them out by hand.

An interesting horse in HTR is the low q-pt/high FR1 in PL1 horse. This is a horse who has not really shown a lot of speed in his last three races, but shows a good break in last (FR1 or in IMPACT ESPr1). Sometimes this horse surprises at a price, the break at the gate last shows a sharpening of form (maybe).

While we don't have any black boxes here, we do have lots of stuff to work with and certainly "food for thought".

Glad you are enjoying yourself so far.

later,
Carl

[Glen]

Bulldog,

Here is an ole write up by KM about PL's

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/paceline%20selections.pdf

Isn't this fun?!

[tbrown]

Originally posted by Glen
Bulldog,

Here is an ole write up by KM about PL's

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/paceline%20selections.pdf

Isn't this fun?!

Thanks for the link, Glen.
Yes! this is a ball!
Tom